Basel final preview and pick: Del Potro vs. Federer

It will be a rematch of the 2012 final when Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer battle for the Basel trophy again on Sunday. This is Federer’s 10th appearance in the Basel title match.

Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 18th time in their careers and for the first time this season when they meet in the final of the Swiss Indoors Basel on Sunday afternoon.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 13-4, but the hard-court history stands at just 8-4 in Federer’s favor and Del Potro has won their last two encounters. After beating the Swiss 6-4, 6-7(5), 7-6(3) in last year’s Basel title match, Del Potro scored a 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-3 victory less than a month later during round-robin action at the World Tour Finals.

Del Potro is even hotter heading into London this time around, having bounced back impressively from an early U.S. Open loss to Lleyton Hewitt. The fifth-ranked Argentine triumphed in Tokyo then finished runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Shanghai (lost in a third-set tiebreaker). Del Potro is 46-14 for his 2013 campaign following victories this week over Henri Laaksonen, Marcos Baghdatis, Paul-Henri Mathieu, and Edouard Roger-Vasselin.

“Against Federer, it doesn’t matter what he says,” Del Potro said after getting past Roger-Vasselin 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 on Saturday. “He’s Roger Federer. He’s playing in his hometown and on this surface. He’s very good on this surface. He has experience. He’s won here five times. He’s looking forward to winning again and to qualify in London with a win here. If I play much better than I did today and serve well, I know the way to make things complicated for him.”

Things have been a lot more complicated for Federer than Del Potro of late. The 32-year-old is down at No. 6 in the world and No. 8 in the yearly race, but a win on Sunday would officially punch his ticket to London. He booked a spot in his 10th Basel final by taking out Adrian Mannarino, Denis Istomin, Grigor Dimitrov, and Vasek Pospisil–losing sets to Istomin and Pospisil in the process. Federer, who is participating in just his third final of 2013 (lost Rome, won Halle), is 40-13 for the season.

Del Potro is an obvious favorite based on current form, but this has been an exhausting indoor stretch for the defending champion and he may not have enough in the tank–mentally more than physically–to make this routine. But Federer does not have a Top 10 win since the Australian Open, and since Indian Wells his best wins ranking-wise are over Tommy Haas and Gilles Simon. Taking such a big leap against Del Potro is too much to expect in Federer’s current state.

Pick: Del Potro in 3

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31 Comments on Basel final preview and pick: Del Potro vs. Federer

  1. Maybe the close encounter with Popsi will focus his mind. He can’t afford the lapses in concentration that we’ve seen this week if he is to stand any chance against Delpo.
    Assuming, of course, Delpo is OK. He was definitely not himself today.

    I’m not prepared to discount Federer’s chances though.

  2. This is another of those matches where I am going back and forth. I do think that Delpo will have to play better than he did in the semis to win. Fed has had his lapses, but will be extremely motivated in front of the home crowd and wanting to wrap up qualifying for London.

    I am going with my gut and pick Delpo in three.

    • Interesting question. I hadn’t thought about that scenario
      On balance I think he should play and probably will. He needs to build on the confidence gained by a good run at Basel. IMO one of his problems has been not gaining momentum by playing enough back to back tournaments this year.

      Rafa confounded many people by going flat out this year, apart from a couple of strategic time-outs, and rode of wave of ever-mounting momentum to arrive at the pinnacle again.

  3. Federer’s problems are in his head. Not his body. Admittedly the mileage on his body clock is twice or even three times that of other players in his age group but I can only recall one other occasion when he choked on match point like he did in his SF. He was 5:2 in a tiebreak and blew it. Cant recall when and where – probably about four or five years ago – but I remember him saying how shocked he was that he let it happen.

    The days when he could say matches were always on his racket seem a long way off.

  4. If Fed qualifies for the WTF by winning Basel the margin will be small against the other contenders trying to qualify so if he pulls out of Paris and they do well there he could find himself short of the top 8, so I think he will play Paris.

  5. Crushing blow for Federer. Not entirely unexpected.
    Great final anyway. Big congratulations to Delpo.
    oh, and congratulations Ricky!

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