Barcelona final preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Medvedev

Rafael Nadal is out of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. Does that means the door is open for Daniil Medvedev?

Perhaps not, as Medvedev still has to go up against arguably the second-best clay-courter in the world–instead of the best–in Sunday afternoon’s final. Medvedev and Dominic Thiem will be facing each other for the second time in their careers, with Thiem having won their only previous encounter 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(2) last fall on the indoor hard courts of St. Petersburg.

The 23-year-old Russian does not have home-court advantage this time around and clay is the last surface on which he would want to contest this matchup. On the bright side, Medvedev is without question playing the best tennis of his life. Up to No. 14 in the world, Medvedev is 25-7 this season following Barcelona victories over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Mackenzie McDonald, Nicolas Jarry, and Kei Nishikori.

Thiem took out Diego Schwartzman, Jaume Munar, and Guido Pella before upsetting Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the semifinals. The fifth-ranked Austrian, a surprise champion in Indian Wells last month, has been especially outstanding over his past three sets of tennis–the second against Pella and the entire way on Saturday.

“It’s such a traditional tournament,” Thiem noted. “I loved [playing in] the finals here two years ago, and of course I try to go one step further tomorrow. But Daniil is I think in the best shape of his life. If I see the names of who won here, this tournament; of course I would love to be there, as well.”

Thiem should be there, but it won’t be easy. Medvedev is playing his typically rock-solid tennis, keeping everything in play and using opponents’ pace to their disadvantage. Nishikori could not hit through the No. 7 seed on Saturday, but Thiem constructs point better than Nishikori does on clay and will use his power and topspin forehand to push Medvedev well behind the baseline and induce short balls. And as Nadal found out–again–in the semis, it’s basically all over when Thiem takes control of a point.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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20 Comments on Barcelona final preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Medvedev

  1. I’ll say Thiem in 3, he’s hitting the cover off the ball, serving well, and not missing much. But Medvedev is in good form too.

  2. Thiem showed against Nadal that right now, his best clay court tennis is better than anyone else’s. Rafa played well and was still beaten cleanly. I don’t think Medvedev’s game will have too much to trouble Thiem if the latter can bring the kind of tennis he showed in the SF. Thiem in 2.

    • What? Rafa play well? I dont know what are you looking. Rafa in very average at the moment not at 50% of his best;).

  3. I’ll say Thiem in 3, although I’m not very confident in that prediction. While he’s taken some big steps over the last year, he still has been too inconsistent for me to be confident just assuming he’ll win matches he should win. I really hope he wins it. It’s time for him to start winning consistently!

  4. Medvedev is a unique player; he plays primarily from the baseline but he can create all sorts of angles, changes directions and changes pace so well. He hits flat shots and penetrating ones, has a big serve and moves well too for his height.

    Thiem’s slices don’t bother him too much as his shots are flat and Thiem’s slices ended up in the net!

  5. Now this is the result we all expect from a guy of Thiem’s stature! Similar to Fabio last Sunday, props to Thiem for not having a letdown post-Rafa in the Final. If he can get good results at Madrid/Rome and not flame out to some random dude in the early rounds, then maybe he will have turned a corner toward consistency. Either way, well done, Thiem! He’s definitely become my favorite player to watch on clay (when he’s on).

    • Well done by Thiem! Sure happy he beat Medvedev – just like Kevin says ^^ Congrats to Thiem for not having a letdown post-Rafa and beating that clay imposter, Medvedev for the title 😀

  6. Congrats to Thiem for the title.

    My fave player to watch, after Rafa, is Tsitsipas. Thiem is too much of a hard hitter for my liking, even though he has added in more varieties into his game. He’s a nice guy though and I wish him more success in future. I think he’s hitting his peak now at age 25/26 and will be very tough to beat on clay for anyone.

    I like Medvedev too but I need a lot of patience watching Medvedev because he tends to play long grueling matches using his flat shots, creating angles etc to win rather than ending points more quickly by moving forward.

    • Wow, I totally forgot about Tsitsipas! He’s definitely my other favorite younger-gun. I enjoy his variety, which Thiem very much lacks. I’m happy to watch Tsitsipas on any surface, whereas I enjoy Thiem on clay infinitely more than on hardcourt, for whatever reasons. But similar to Thiem, Tsitsipas seems to struggle with consistency, especially recently. But unlike Thiem, Tsitsipas can still be great to watch even if he’s not at his best.

      Sort of similar to Stan, Thiem is only my favorite to watch when he is really on, which lately he has been. Because he’s such a basher, he can be so wild and inconsistent. When he’s on, it’s shotmaking at its best. So while overall I probably enjoy Tsitsipas more, a totally dialed-in Thiem on clay is my favorite to see out of the younger guys. Half of the time he is not very fun to watch, though. This why I typically prefer to watch Thiem matches AFTER the match, as opposed to live, so I don’t waste my time watching a guy just spray balls out of the court all day.

      I have yet to see Tsitsipas play in person, but I was privelaged to get to attend the epic Rafa-Thiem QF at the USO last year. Seeing Thiem hit those crazy low-percentage winners was as cool in person as it is on t.v. Maybe if I’m lucky I will get to see Tsitsipas at this year’s USO.

  7. And Congrats to Welshwitch of bracket fame for being the only one to pick Thiem and winning the Barcelona bracket. Hope you read here sometimes, Margot. Think about you a lot!

    Of course congrats to backhandpass winning the completely confusing Budapest and Big Al winning Istanbul. And I’m so proud of Petra Kvitova winning Stuttgart – congrats to her and and finally got a winner pick right 😀

    If anyone wants to try the luck at the weekly bracket game, please join:
    http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/ here — and go to groups and pick jalep Wildgess group (my group) and The Grandstand group if you like small group competition. Or the big group is Moo’s Tennis Blog group, if you like more competition and a big group where very few will know you. 😀

    Right no brackets are open for picking ATP Munich and Estoril; WTA brackets for Rabat and Prague. Get your picking finger tuned up for Roland Garros!!

    • ^^ meant to say above. The Brackets ARE Open for picking and and for about 15 more hours. And I rarely advertise and invite people to join – and the invitation is to everyone reading here! Roland Garros of course is the big one but Madrid and Rome and coming right up!

    • Its hard to find the time to do these brackets but I always get mine in and would encourage everyone to take part, its great fun , don’t take it too seriously though!

  8. Another awesome match from Thiem, in some ways more impressive than the SF win because of the way he had to change his game to do it. Mededev came out on fire, not missing a shot and completely befuddling Thiem. Thiem didn’t panic, and turning to the slice was the key, along with the drop shots. This match should put to rest the idea that Thiem lacks variety to his game and his just a basher. The reason he’s so good is that he can do both. Two masters titles, victories over Fed on HC and Nadal on clay, and we’re not even out of April. I’d say that’s pretty good. Well done!

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