Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Rublev vs. Arnaldi, Opelka vs. Budkov Kjaer

Andrey Rublev will kick off his Australian Open campaign when first-round action continues on Monday, as he faces tough unseeded foe Matteo Arnaldi. Reilly Opelka will go up against qualifier Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.

Matteo Arnaldi vs. (13) Andrey Rublev

Rublev and Arnaldi will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they clash in round one of the Australian Open on Monday. The head-to-head series is tied 2-2 after Arnaldi cruised 6-4, 7-5 at the 2025 Indian Wells Masters. Rublev, however, has won their other two hard-court encounters — 7-5, 6-3 at the indoor event in Vienna three years ago and 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals of the 2024 Montreal Masters.

Although Rublev may not be in peak form these days, it’s hard to have any faith in Arnaldi. The 24-year-old Italian was one of the tour’s breakout stars in 2023 and 2024, but he compiled a losing record last season. Arnaldi has won only two main-draw matches since the Toronto Masters in late July. Rublev may not be consistent enough to win in straight sets, but the 15th-ranked Russian should make his way into round two without too much trouble.

Pick: Rublev in 4

(Q) Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Reilly Opelka

Budkov Kjaer has started to make a name for himself on the main tour. One of the best junior players in recent seasons, the 19-year-old Norwegian played in the NextGen ATP Finals last month. He reached the semifinals with wins over Martin Landaluce and Raphael Jodar before falling to Alexander Blockx. Budkov Kjaer already has three victories under his belt at Melbourne Park, having successfully qualified for the main draw (defeated Yosuke Watanuki, James McCabe, and Pierre-Hugues Herbert).

Up next for the world No. 135 on Monday is a first-ever showdown against Opelka. Just as in almost any match involving Opelka, the margins are sure to be small with very few service breaks. When that is the case, confidence from winning a lot of matches is key in pressure-packed moments. Budkov Kjaer has more of it, as Opelka is just 2-2 so far this year (second-round losses in Brisbane and Adelaide) and 2-4 in his last six main-draw matches dating back to last fall. A minor upset could be in the cards.

Pick: Budkov Kjaer in 5