Australian Open final preview and prediction: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina

Two of the biggest hitters in the women’s game will battle in the Australian Open final, and the result could be the best match of the tournament.

It’s a familiar matchup, too, as Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers on Saturday night in Rod Laver Arena. The head-to-head series stands at 8-6 in favor of Sabalenka, who triumphed over Rybakina 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the 2023 Aussie Open final. However, Rybakina is 6-4 in their last 10 meetings after losing their first four. The Kazakh most recently prevailed 6-3, 7-6(0) in the championship match of the 2025 WTA Finals.

That season-ending run by Rybakina has spilled over into 2026. The world No. 5 is 8-1 this season, giving her a 19-1 record in her last 20 matches overall. She has not dropped a single set so far at Melbourne Park, and only world No. 6 Jessica Pegula has managed to force a tiebreaker (Rybakina prevailed 6-3, 7-6(7) in the semis). Rybakina’s road to the title tilt also featured a 7-5, 6-1 rout of world No. 2 Iga Swiatek on Tuesday.

Sabalenka also did not lose a single set en route to the championship match, although she was pushed to a combined three tiebreakers by Anastasia Potapova and Victoria Mboko. Overall, though, the world No. 1 has been largely untested and has not faced anyone ranked better than 12th.

Rybakina is the underdog, but a minor upset is well within reason. She has held the upper hand in this matchup in recent times and has battled through more difficult matches against tougher opponents so far in Melbourne. That could serve the No. 5 seed well in what is almost sure to be a competitive, back-and-forth final.

Pick: Rybakina in3

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