Australian Open SF expert picks: Sinner vs. Djokovic, Alcaraz vs. Zverev

Expert picks are back for the Australian Open semifinals: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Friday’s action in Melbourne.

(4) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Jannik Sinner

Ricky: Unless there is some voodoo magic going on with Djokovic’s opponents and another one is cast down, this match should be one-way traffic. Seemingly the only way the 38-year-old Serb can advance is by getting another free pass — as he did from Jakub Mensik in the fourth round (walkover) and from Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals (retirement). Djokovic was getting steamrolled by Musetti and a foot blister didn’t help. Now the 24-time major champion has to face a much tougher opponent in Sinner, to whom he has lost five times in a row. Recent meetings haven’t even been competitive. Sinner rolled in straight sets at both the French Open and Wimbledon last season, the latter via a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 beatdown. The two-time defending AO champion has dropped only one set this fortnight, and that was when he was physically compromised (before the roof closed) against Eliot Spizzirri in round three. He shouldn’t lose a set on Friday. Sinner in 3: 6-3, 7-5, 6-2.

Cheryl: The head-to-head alone does not properly convey the reality of this matchup. The stats sheet says that Sinner has a slight 6-4 edge, which is technically true. But a closer look reveals domination by Djokovic in the early part of Sinner’s career but only two wins in eight tries since 2023. If that wasn’t alarming enough for the Serb, the matches have mostly grown less competitive as Djokovic gets further from his prime and Sinner settles into his more firmly. Of course, there is also the reality that Djokovic isn’t playing well…or to put a finer point on it, he’s kind of not playing at all. He beat Botic Van de Zandschulp in straight sets last weekend and has not won a set since. He got a walkover from Jakub Mensik in the round of 16 and was down two sets to none to Lorenzo Musetti when the Italian retired with a leg injury. It would be remiss not to mention the fact that Sinner was cramped into a limb pretzel in his third-round match due to extreme heat and caught some luck of his own when they stopped play to close the roof. But since he hasn’t had any difficulty since, it’s probably not germane to the conversation. Barring the wildly unexpected, this one’s going to Sinner. Again. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Ironically, both Sinner and Djokovic are extremely fortunate to have even reached the semifinals in the first major of the year. The two-time defending champion caught a fortunate break when the heat index forced the closure of the roof on Rod Laver Arena in his third-round encounter against American Eliot Spizzirri. With the exception of that match, it has been business as usual for the No. 2 seed. Djokovic has not won a set since his third-set tiebreaker in the third round against Botic van de Zandschulp, as he advanced to the quarters with a walkover and then again to the semis when Lorenzo Musetti could not continue early in the third set despite winning the first two. Sinner has won five in a row in this H2H series and six of the last seven, and  Djokovic has managed to win just one set in their last five meetings. Expect the 10-time AO champion to compete to the best of his ability. Although that alone usually gets the job done against the majority of the ATP field, it will not be nearly enough at this point in his storied career with Sinner on the other side of the net. Sinner in 3: 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (3) Alexander Zverev

Ricky: This should be the more competitive of the two semis, mainly for one reason: Zverev’s serve. Through five matches at Melbourne Park, the German has struck 80 aces to just six double-faults and has been broken only seven times. That shot alone can keep him in this match. Unfortunately for Zverev, Alcaraz is also serving great (broken seven times, as well) and is obviously a far superior all-court player. After the Spaniard fared much better at the grass and clay Grand Slams in 2023 and 2024, his hard-court prowess has returned. Alcaraz rolled to the 2025 U.S. Open title (including a win over Sinner in the final) and has been nothing short of dominant so far in Melbourne. The world No. 1 did not drop a set en route to the semis and was especially impressive in a 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 rout of a previously red-hot Alex de Minaur on Tuesday. Alcaraz wins…but it’s never easy for him against Zverev (6-6 H2H). Alcaraz in 4: 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.

Cheryl: If you’re paying attention to the seeding, you’ll notice that the semifinals are being contested by the top four seeds. It’s fairly unusual for it to actually work out that way, but here we are. This match has some potential to inject some excitement into the men’s draw. The head-to-head is dead even at six wins apiece. More good news is that both men are playing well. Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set en route to the semis. Zverev has dropped plenty of them, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he is out of form. He was also a 2025 finalist in Melbourne (lost to Sinner), so the courts suit his game. I can’t pick against another Alcaraz-Sinner final. Like Thanos, it’s inevitable. Still, this one should be a treat. Alcaraz in 5: 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.

Pete (Tennis Acumen): Zverev has always posed challenges for Alcaraz, as proven by their 6-6 H2H. In fact, Zverev can also point to his convincing win in the 2024 Australian Open quarters should anyone doubt that he is up to the task. Except for a stern test against American Tommy Paul in the fourth round, the Spaniard and world No. 1 has steamrolled into the semis and has not dropped a set in the process. Zverev, a three-time major finalist and last year’s runner-up in Melbourne, has been extended to a fourth set in all matches except one so far this fortnight. It will be interesting to see if the absence of long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will have any impact on Alcaraz in the final rounds of a major. It’s uncharted territory now and onward. That being said, he is in fine form at the moment. Zverev has hit just six double-faults in 19 sets over five matches. Even if he continues to serve this well, however, it still most likely won’t be enough this time. Alcaraz in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4.

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