Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Rublev vs. De Minaur, Djokovic vs. Mannarino

The Aussie fans will be out in droves for a blockbuster Australian Open fourth-round battle between Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur on Sunday. Novak Djokovic continues his title quest against Adrian Mannarino.

(10) Alex de Minaur vs. (5) Andrey Rublev

Given his relatively limited offensive weapons, De Minaur has never been considered a Grand Slam title contender. But don’t tell De Minaur. He just broke one barrier–reaching the top 10 for the first time in his career–and he certainly doesn’t lack confidence and determination to break another. Before he can think about lifting the Australian Open trophy, however, the world No. 10 will have to pass a fourth-round test against Rublev on Sunday. It figures to be much tougher than his first three matches at Melbourne Park. In week one De Minaur dropped only one set (in a tiebreaker) while defeating Milos Raonic, Matteo Arnaldi, and Flavio Cobolli.

This marks the sixth meeting between the two players, with De Minaur leading the head-to-head series 3-2. All three of his wins have come on hard courts (two indoors), while one of Rublev’s victories has come on clay–De Minaur’s least favorite surface. Sunday’s showdown should be a great one between two of the hottest players on tour. De Minaur is on a six-match winning streak since losing to Cameron Norrie in a third-set tiebreaker at the United Cup. Rublev is 7-0 in 2024, with a title in Hong Kong followed by Aussie Open defeats of Thiago Seyboth Wild (in a fifth-set tiebreaker), Chris Eubanks, and Sebastian Korda. With De Minaur red hot, confident in this particular matchup, and buoyed by the home crowd, a minor upset could be in the cards.

Pick: De Minaur in 5

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (20) Adrian Mannarino

Djokovic and Mannarino will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Sunday. All four of their previous encounters have gone Djokovic’s way and he is 10-1 in total sets against the 35-year-old Frenchman. The top-ranked Serb cruised at Wimbledon in both 2016 and 2017, picked up another grass-court win at Queen’s Club in 2018, and prevailed 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 less than two months later at the Cincinnati Masters.

Although Djokovic struggled a bit in his first two matches this fortnight (four-set defeats of Dino Prizmic and Alexei Popyrin), he picked up the pace to beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-3, 6-3, 7-6(2) on Friday. Nobody in the entire draw has endured a rougher road than Mannarino, who required five sets to get past Stan Wawrinka, Jaume Munar, and Ben Shelton. The world No. 19 is always tricky, but Djokovic only seems to be getting better with each round–as usual–and his history of success against Mannrino points toward another routine day at the office.

Pick: Djokovic in 3