Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

The Australian Open quarterfinals heat up with a showdown between world No. 2 Rafael Nadal and Greek star Stefanos Tsitsipas on Wednesday night. The winner will go up against either Daniil Medvedev or Andrey Rublev in the semis.

Rafael Nadal hasn’t been a kind matchup for Stefanos Tsitispas. This will be their eighth meeting since 2018, and the Greek has managed just one win. Tsitsipas ran into Nadal in the 2019 Australian Open semifinals, a tournament in which he upset Roger Federer.

After getting shellacked, Tsitsipas said of Nadal’s game, “It felt like a different dimension of tennis. He gives you no rhythm. He plays just a different game style than the rest of the players. He has this talent that no other player has. I’ve never seen a player have this. He makes you play bad.”

What he meant, of course, is that Nadal makes him play badly. Five meetings later, not much has changed. Nadal no longer hits him off the court quite so badly, but the Spaniard still seems to have his number in the big moments.

The sore back that Nadal brought into Melbourne seems to be under control. The No. 2 seed benefitted from an early favorable draw. His first two matches were against Laslo Djere and Michael Mmoh. By the time he got to Fabio Fognini in the round of 16, he had his back pain under control and was rewarded with a comfortable 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 win over the feisty Italian.

Tstisipas has made a pair of major semifinals, first in Melbourne against Nadal and again last fall at the French Open–where he took Novak Djokovic to five sets. The 22-year-old has a pretty game; he’s light on his feet and has a fluid one-handed backhand. He’s almost sure to add a few slam titles to his trophy shelf…but probably not yet.

With the matchup problem and Nadal playing himself into the tournament, the Spaniard will go into this quarter as the favorite. The good news for fans is that unlike last time, Nadal is going to have to work for it.

Cheryl pick: Nadal in 4

Ricky pick: Nadal in 4

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WWW: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas?

6 Comments on Australian Open QF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

  1. Condolences to Rafa fans. I thought his level for the first 3 sets (until the TB) was as good as I’ve ever seen it on a HC, comparable to USO swing in 2017. He should have won in the TB; how did he miss those overheads? He never misses those. But credit to Stefanos for playing brilliantly the last three sets. Just a great tennis match.

  2. Its a shocker of a result when Rafa should have won in three . Wilander was spot on in his prediction .I didnt see the whole match yet , but sounds like Rafa just ran out of steam . Im happy that an attacking player like Tsitsi can beat Nadal on this fast court ,but I do sympathise with the disappointment of his fans .
    Earlier on,I felt that when Ash Barty lost from a set and break up.

    • I heard about Ash Barty. I did not see that match, but I read about it. Very unfortunate for her.

      Thanks to you and Joe for your kind words. I am very aware that losing a tennis match by my favorite player is disappointing, but in the grand scheme of things it’s not the end of the world.

      Reading Rafa’s words also helps to put it in perspective.

  3. Rafa was gracious as ever when in defeat. He has won so much already so he’s thankful for everything. I’m calm with Rafa and his losses now after he won his number 20 slam. Of course there will be some regrets but life is such.

    I’m happy for Tsitsipas, I mean how would he feel after battling back from two sets down and still lost it in five (think about his match vs Stan at the FO one year where he lost narrowly in five sets and also his recent five sets SF loss to Djoko at the FO last year!) . He would be terribly upset that he once again lost it in five sets after battling hard to make a comeback.

    I do feel it’s Medvedev’s time now to get a slam, as I feel only a top form Djoko (and Rafa) could stop him but Rafa is out now and Djoko isn’t in top form. Tsitsipas I feel is not ready to beat this Medvedev, who’s in the form of his life now about to hit his peak, and who’s now in a 19 match winning streak, all on the HCs.

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