Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Shelton vs. Humbert, Mensik vs. Carreno Busta

Ugo Humbert and Jakub Mensik will be making quick turnarounds following deep runs last week, and they do not have easy Australian Open draws. Humbert faces Ben Shelton; Mensik meets Pablo Carreno Busta.

(8) Ben Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert

Humbert heads into the Australian Open on the heels of a runner-up performance in Adelaide, where he lost to Tomas Machac in a tough three-setter on Saturday. It was a much-needed result for the 27-year-old Frenchman, who struggled throughout the 2025 campaign — largely due to physical problems — and dropped his opening match in Brisbane to Cameron Norrie. Humbert comes in at 33rd in the rankings and is without question one of the best unseeded players in the field.

Following two days off, Humbert is set for a first-ever matchup with Shelton — an all-lefty duel. Shelton also played last week but lost early (quarterfinals) in Auckland to a red-hot Sebastian Baez, which was probably a blessing in disguise. The seventh-ranked American will be well rested for Melbourne, where he has semifinal points to defend. Although this is a rough opening matchup, Shelton generally thrives at Grand Slams and Humbert has to be at least somewhat fatigued.

Pick: Shelton in 4

(16) Jakub Mensik vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Like Humbert, Mensik also spent the maximum amount of time at his stop on Week 2 of the ATP calendar. The 20-year-old went all the way in Auckland, where he made surprisingly quick 6-4, 6-2 work of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the quarterfinals and eventually ended Baez’s hot streak with a 6-3, 7-6(7) victory in the title match.

Up first for Mensik on Tuesday is a third meeting with Carreno Busta, who has lost both of their previous encounters. The 17th-ranked Czech prevailed 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 last year in Auckland and 7-5, 6-4 this past fall in the Davis Cup Finals. Carreno Busta is in questionable form at the moment, as the 34-year-old Spaniard lost to Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane first round and fell in Auckland qualifying to Vit Kopriva. Fatigue should not be too big of a factor for Mensik, who played only four matches last week (started with a bye). But even if it is, he brings a huge serve and first-strike tennis to the table. He can end points — and the entire match — quickly.

Pick: Mensik in 3

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