The women’s semifinals will take center stage at the Australian Open on Thursday, starting with Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina. Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula have no days off heading into their matchup.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (12) Elina Svitolina
Can Svitolina make a match out of this despite being a heavy underdog? Her current form suggests that she can. The 31-year-old Ukrainian is 10-0 so far in 2026 and 20-1 in total sets. Her season-opening run features a title in Auckland and straight-set victories at the Australian Open over Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series 5-1 heading into Thursday’s semifinal showdown. The world No. 1 has won four in a row, although their 2024 Rome meeting went to a third-set tiebreaker. Sabalenka is also 10-0 this year, with a title in Brisbane and no sets dropped so far in Melbourne. The Belarusian should advance, but this will likely be her toughest test of the fortnight to date.
Pick: Sabalenka in 3
(6) Jessica Pegula vs. (5) Elena Rybakina
Thursday’s second semifinal should be every bit as good, as both players are in outstanding form. Rybakina, who wrapped up last year by winning the WTA Finals, has not even been pushed to a tiebreaker at Melbourne Park. Pegula is 8-1 this season has also has not lost a single set through five rounds at the Aussie Open. The world No. 6 is coming off especially impressive back-to-back wins over defending champion Madison Keys and world No. 4 Amanda Anisimova.
The head-to-head series is tied 3-3. Pegula leads it 3-1 on outdoor hard courts, but Rybakina has won their last two meetings overall — 6-4, 6-1 in the 2025 Billie Jean King Cup and 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 a few months later at the WTA Finals. The fourth-ranked Kazakh may have the edge in the pressure moments because she can win free points with a much bigger game, but this should be a fun one.
Pick: Rybakina in 3
WWW?
Your picks sound about right if Rybakina plays her best .
Agreed. Am still rooting for Svito but she would need Saba to be off her game..
I feel like Pegula can pull off a win here. Haven‘t seen her play so well in a while.
Yes…Pegula can do it…in 3; and Slenka in 2
I think Pegula v Saba in the final
Why are so many people saying Saba can only beat herself??!! Ryba has won 2 of their last 3 matches and 5 of the last 9!! And that includes her coachless slump. She’s had the more difficult path to the final as well.
Go Ryba!!!
who is saying that? fans, or the ESPN people?
agreed. this is close to a 50/50 matchup if they both play their best.
Fans mostly. It’s a bit bizarre especially given Ryba beat Saba in straights at the WTF.
Looking forward to reading your pick for the final…!
Right on Amy, some people have short memories
Rybakina beats Sab in 3 ?
Could be. Match could go either way…
Lets just enjoy the tennis
I think Saba has an edge mentally .Tennis wise they pretty evenly matched.