Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Kyrgios vs. Simon

Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios are on a collision course for the fourth round in Melbourne. Well before that, however, they have to get through respective round-of-64 matches against Federico Delbonis and Gilles Simon on Thursday.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Federico Delbonis


Nadal and Delbonis will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Australian Open on Thursday night. All three of their previous encounters have gone the way of Nadal, whose set scores read 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, and 6-1.

More of the same is expected to continue after Nadal kicked off his fortnight with a 6-2, 6-3, 6-0 destruction of Hugo Dellien. Delbonis took care of Joao Sousa 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(3), but Sousa has been in dreadful form of late. It expected to be very windy again on Thursday, which could wreak havoc on a Delbonis ball toss that is without question the highest in the sport. The 76th-ranked Argentine is not going to last long on Thursday.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 5-7 games

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(23) Nick Kyrgios vs. Gilles Simon

Is this the year when Kyrgios finally puts it all together in Melbourne? Well, he will likely have to get past Nadal (potential fourth-round matchup) in order to reach the quarterfinals–so he is not likely to make it past the second Monday of the fortnight. Whatever the case, the 26th-ranked Australian started well enough by beating Lorenzo Sonego 6-2, 7-6(3), 7-6(1) on Tuesday night.

Up next for Kyrgios on Thursday is a second career meeting with Simon, who went down 6-4, 7-6(5) in the Washington, D.C. opening round last summer. Simon advanced on Tuesday thanks to a 6-1, 6-3, 6-3 blowout of Pablo Cuevas. The 35-year-old Frenchman may have slipped to No. 61 in the world, but he remains a human backboard capable of forcing opponents to beat themselves. Kyrgios has done just that on innumerable occasions in the past and he just did it against a similar kind of player to Simon in Roberto Bautista Agut (6-1, 6-4 at the ATP Cup).

Pick: Simon in 5

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46 Comments on Australian Open R2 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Delbonis, Kyrgios vs. Simon

  1. Kyrgios’ serve is ridiculously good but he is still a pretty average returner. Forget Rafa, this is the sort of grinding match that should mentally and physically test him. When has he ever shown serious fight over five sets? He’s like the opposite of De Minaur or Millman, it’s so annoying to watch him stuff around and waste talent sometimes.

    Since Simon gives nothing away he will probably break Nick down if he is in good form. I haven’t seen anything of him lately, but the fact that he dispatched Cuevas so easily means he can’t be doing too badly. I can see Nick getting off to a fast start, but the question is whether he’ll have the necessary willpower and endurance. If Simon is playing well then Nick will probably have to show a lot more resolve than he is used to. He’ll have to deal with the frustration, avoid the temptation of rash shots, be prepared for tiebreaker sets and use them to his (clear!) advantage. He is capable of this, but I’m not sure he’ll deliver it.

    Simon in 4.

  2. Just heard Courier and Navratilova discussing how heavy the balls are this year. They slow the game down and don’t bouce as much (not great for Rafa!). The court is probably also playing a bit slower and that makes the overall conditions not so good for Federer and Rafa. Probably ideal for Novak!

    • Djoko also seemed to struggle a little bit, I don’t think it’s ideal for him either.

      Fed seems ok so far, and with all the major obstacles gone from his quarter, I doubt any one will trouble him until the SF. It’s looking likely that we will have a Fed vs Djoko SF.

      Rafa’s half of the draw, well all the seeds are still there so we have to see after R2, how things go.

    • Is it confirmed the courts are playing slower? Fed said may play slower only at nights . Isnt the court similar to Davis cup courts?

    • Rafa also says that the court is slower and the balls become heavier during play.

      Rafa (in EL PAIS on Jan. 22): “…balls become very heavy [during play]. I don’t know if it’s because the court is a little slower…They say it’s the same ball as last year, but I think it’s totally different. A ball is fast at the beginning but it becomes very heavy after ten shots.” (Translated from Spanish via Google)

      https://elpais.com/deportes/2020/01/21/actualidad/1579568633_677818.html

    • Isn’t it funny how much of a crapshoot it is trying to judge the court speed? To me, it appeared to be playing relatively quickly, similar to the previous few years. But mentioned above, Fed stated that while the balls play quicker at first, they then fluff up and get slower. Not to mention any difference the temperature makes. There’s no question that slower conditions affect Fed more than Novak or Rafa, as he’s not as capable of generating his own power from the baseline as he used to be. Rafa obviously plays great on a slower court, but I think the actual speed of a court is less impactful on Rafa than the amount of bounce is. While it’s debatable how much of a negative impact it actually has on Rafa, lower bouncing courts certainly do not favor Rafa the way that higher bouncing ones do. I think the general consensus from what I’ve heard/read is that it’s essentially the same as it was last year. And overall, I suppose that’s how it appears to me on television.

  3. Kyrgios is going to win, this tournament is different because he is super motivated by the Australian bush fires. I know he wants to win to have more money to donate to disaster relief. He will play for real.

    • I have wondered if something like that might play out. He does seem extra motivated, which would be great to see. Playing for something bigger than himself could only be good for NK.

  4. Rafa needs to take more advantage of his break point chances!! Sigh!
    Rafa is not as crisp as he needs to be, needs to sharpen up!!

  5. Rafa making way to many errors! How on earth is he going to return Nick’s bombs when he is troubled returning Delbo serves.?!
    I guess Rafa does have issues with the court speed and the heaviness of the ball…he is playing way below his ATP cup level…but then again, he does not need to be as sharp in these early rounds…

    Vamos Champ!

    • Rafa should have already been up two sets to love with a break in the third!!! He isn’t on keeping this guy in the match! His bp conversion is worst the Roger’s now!!

      • Bad for his own standards! His return points won are low and its Delbonis we are talking about! Break point conversion law at only 15%. What works well and I wish Rafa does it more often is his net game. May as well be that Rafa did not want to push hard. At the beginning of the match Delbo was playing terrible and it seemed Rafa would have an easy match, but it turns out to be pretty annoying for Rafa mostly due to Rafa’s uncharacteristic errors…

        I think Rafa is still adjusting to the conditions: the court and the ridiculous heavy balls. I think Novak had the same problem in his first round match, Goffin and Wawa as well.
        Hope Rafa copes better in his next match. He will have to be much sharper as it looks like he will face the home fave bad boy…Gosh, Rafa vs Nick matches are mentally draining for me just by watching it…

    • No, Rafa was playing a fellow lefty and thus he also had problem adjusting to a lefty’s serve!

      Rafa’s serve was also troubling Del Bonis, hence Rafa despite his poor BP conversion, still managed to win without losing his own serve.

      Kyrgios is not a lefty and I’m sure Rafa will be at his 100% when facing Kyrgios. Rafa will have to serve well (and Im sure he’s going to serve well) if he has to play against Kyrgios in the fourth round. It’s not only Kyrgios who will up his level against Rafa but Rafa too will up his level seeing Kyrgios across the net.

      PS. Rafa also has problems vs fellow lefty Spaniards, ie Verdasco and also Feli; both served well when they beat him.

  6. Nick gets time violation warning and he immediately starts mocking Rafa! He really is obsessed with Rafa and uses every opportunity to put Rafa down.,.their match will be another torture for us Rafans…hope Rafa finds the way to adjust to the conditions..,it seems very fast court with heavy balls… the least favorable conditions for Rafa..,

    • Agreed Natashao!
      I have been saying similar things to you.
      I am absolutely dreading their meeting.
      NK was absolutely bonkers when they met at wimby..spitting and insulting rafa..he doesn’t seem to get so fired up against anyone else..
      Does anyone think Khachanov will beat him?

        • Don’t think Khachanov stands a chance..,he had to work hard and almost lost the match to this unknown kid. I watched part of his match and he had many UEs and lousy first serve..,Nick will eat him for dinner if he doesn’t improve his game…I however cheered for Karen hoping he could at least do some damage to Nick as this other kid would be equal to a walkover…

          • Oh dear! Khachanov does have the game to hurt him so maybe he will suddenly step up although that is probably wishful thinking on my part. As soon as I saw the draw with NK there my heart sank..Rafa has said before NK is the player who is most dangerous early on and who you least want to play…
            As you say, he really gets under rafa’s skin with his deranged antics and endless carping to the ref about how long Rafa is taking serving…😈😈

    • Natashao AT 9:04 AM,

      Rafa said in his Spanish-language post-match interview that the court is slow.

      Nawal@NawalNadal: “Rafa in his post match interview talked about the balls and the court. He said the balls are really heavy and the court is really slow. He thought it would be really fast. He also mentioned that these conditions don’t suit him.”
      Nawal@NawalNadal: “That was the interview with Corretja. Rafa also said he has to work in practice on changing his positioning because he couldn’t generate much power on the shots (in the first 2 sets today).”

      https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1220343094744317952

    • Conditions are slower at night, just like at any tournament. Overall, the consensus seems to be that conditions are the same as last year. In recent years AO has been a bit quicker, while USO has been slower. More likely than not, I would imagine that that’s the way it will stay.

    • The courts looked slower at night but it’s more to do with the balls imo. During the day, the courts didn’t look slow. I also notice that it’s more windy on certain days making the balls travel slower through the air.

      There are many five setters today, five of them if I’m not wrong – Theim, Goffin, Stan, Khachanov and Fritz all came through in five sets. I don’t know what that means, do the courts favor long rallies, or hard hitting or big serving?

  7. Rafa believes he’ll play better. 🙂

    An excerpt from his post-match press conference:
    ¤¤ “I think I can do lot of things better,” Nadal said. “But is not because of Delbonis, no? I can do things better because of myself.
    “I need to play better. Especially I need to convert the break points.
    “But that’s just something that happened today. We don’t need to put a lot of attention on this, no? …. I am confident that I’m going to play better because every day in the third set I have been able to show a good level of tennis. I need to do it before the next time.” ¤¤

    https://ausopen.com/articles/match-report/nadal-grinds-then-gallops-victory

    Vamos Rafa! 💪

  8. Ive never been a NK fan, and for all his natural talent , he does say and do some bloody stupid things, on the other hand the emotion he showed when talking about the bushfires in Australia showed a very different more mature side to his character finally getting it right, raising money for his foundation, so kudos to him for that, if only he would show more maturity on a tennis court * sigh * ….

  9. NK could EASILY lose to Khachanov. Remember- it’s Khachanov who beat Novak Djokovic in a Masters final to win a big title. Sure, Kyrgios has shown he is capable of beating anyone on any given day, but Khachanov is the one who has had a better career thus far. At their respective peak levels, Kyrgios is definitely the better player, but we have seen him lose endless amounts of matches that he should have won. Who knows, maybe the fact that Karen is actually ranked 7 spots higher than NK will actually make NK play better and more focused. For his own sake, it would be good for NK to actually back up all the talk and cockiness, for ONCE. As far as which one Rafa plays, they are both tough matchups for him. In terms of matchups, I assume that Rafa would rather face Khachanov, as I believe he’s never lost to Khachanov (am I right about that?), while NK has beaten Rafa a few times. But on the other hand, knowing Rafa’s competitiveness, I am certain he would love nothing more than to blow NK off the court again at a major and put him in his place- especially after NK making fun of his pre-serve routine again. I, for one, wouldn’t mind seeing Rafa send that douchebag packing. But I also admit that I really want to see a Rafa vs. Djoko/Fed Final.

    • Khachanov has been playing sub-par tennis (to his usual level) the whole tournament, extending matches unnecessarily and doesn’t look like he has what it takes to beat a motivated NK, who showed serious mental strength to dig that match out after letting the third slip against gilles simon who played some solid tennis towards the end of the 3rd and 4th sets really.
      Rafa not playing unbelievably high level either… his level needs to be raised if he is to go far in the tournament.

      So far the only player in the big-3 that has looked commanding so far is Fed (albeit he’s had easier matches maybe, Millman should be a better indicator of how he’s playing)… both Djoko and Nadal playing below their usual levels. Perhaps its only the early rounds and maybe they’ll raise their levels, but who knows. :O

      • Roger has not played much tennis lately so hes super motivated, but he has hardly played any one of note. He’s matches have just been exhos if u ask me!

        I wont be surprised if Nick loses to Karen!

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