The only top eight seed–even top 13, in fact–remaining in the bottom half of the Australian Open draw is Rafael Nadal, who will meet Frances Tiafoe on Tuesday. The other quarterfinal pits Stefanos Tsitsipas against Roberto Bautista Agut.
(14) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (22) Roberto Bautista Agut
Following respective amazing runs through four rounds of this tournament, it will be a first-ever meeting between Tsitsipas and Bautista Agut in the Australian Open quarterfinals on Tuesday. Tsitsipas has survived four consecutive matches that have progressed deep into fourth sets–first over Matteo Berrettini, Viktor Troicki, and Nikoloz Basilashvili. The 20-year-old then took things to much, much greater heights with a dramatic 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) upset of Roger Federer on Saturday.
Bautista Agut has worked even harder, getting the best of five-setters against Andy Murray, John Millman, and Marin Cilic. The 24th-ranked Spaniard also dismissed world No. 11 Karen Khachanov 6-4, 7-5, 6-4 in the second round. Having kicked off his season with a title in Doha, Bautista Agut is sporting a perfect 9-0 record. His tank level may not be full, but at the same time Tsitsipas has also expended tons of mental and physical energy. In what is sure to be another hard-fought contest, Bautista Agut will likely be too solid.
Pick: Bautista Agut in 5
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France Tiafoe vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Nadal and Tiafoe will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers on Tuesday. Although the world No. 2 began this fortnight amidst questions regarding either health and/or rust, the first eight days of the Australian Open could not have progressed in more favorably for him. While other top-eight seeds such as Federer, Cilic, and Kevin Anderson have tumbled out of the draw, Nadal safely played his way into the quarterfinals with straight-set routs of James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden, Alex de Minaur, and Tomas Berdych. The Spaniard was especially ruthless through two sets on Sunday before Berdych finally made things respectable en route to a 6-0, 6-1, 7-6(4) result.
This marks a major breakthrough for Tiafoe–one that he almost enjoyed at Wimbledon last summer but lost to Khachanov from two set up during third-round action. The American, who turned 21 on Sunday, made no such mistake in Melbourne. Playing without question the best tennis of his career, Tiafoe has taken out Prajnesh Gunneswaran, Kevin Anderson, Andreas Seppi (in five sets), and Grigor Dimitrov. He showed signs of cracking on the heels of a two-set lead over Dimitrov but dug deep to hold off the Bulgarian 7-5, 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 7-5. Tiafoe is capable of inflicting damage on Nadal with his forehand, but the 17-time Grand Slam champion won’t let him get comfortable and a steady diet of heavy topspin directed at Tiafoe’s more vulnerable backhand will be just one of many factors in Nadal’s favor.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer
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