The final round of Australian Open qualifying will take place on Saturday in Melbourne. A three-team panel featuring Ricky Dimon of The Grandstand, Joey Hanf of Cliff Drysdale Tennis, and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic weighs in by predicting all 16 matches.
Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand):
1. Radek Stepanek over John-Patrick Smith. Stepanek is something like 700 years old. Unfortunately for Smith, he’s not done yet.
2. Frances Tiafoe over Tim Smyczek. This is an outstanding all-American clash. Smyczek is more solid and arguably the tougher competitor, but Tiafoe boasts a much bigger game. It’s the youngster’s match to win or lose…and that could be either a good thing or a bad thing for him.
3. Marco Trungelliti over Go Soeda. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200. Soeda has been mediocre at best the last few years, whereas Trungelliti started to make a name for himself in 2016.
4. Andrey Rublev over Peter Polansky. Rublev’s rise has been far slower than many expected. Polansky is a tough customer, but the discrepancy in natural talent will be too much for the Canadian to overcome.
5. Duckhee Lee over Alexander Bublik. Bublik is probably the favorite, but you can’t pick against Lee. You hear me? You can’t do it!
6. Bjorn Fratangelo over Hiroki Moriya. Fratangelo took a set off Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells, for whatever that’s worth. More importantly, he’s simply a much better player than Moriya.
7. Ernesto Escobedo over Yuki Bhambri. Bhambri has been a major disappointment, albeit mainly due to injuries. Escobedo, on the other hand, is on the rise and will blow the Indian off the court.
8. Ivan Dodig over Di Wu. Dodig has almost disappeared in singles of late, but he remains one of the best–and is certainly one of the most experienced–players in this draw. He couldn’t ask for a better draw against Wu.
9. Thomas Fabbiano over Andre Ghem. Fabbiano seems to have been in decent form of the past few seasons. With two qualifying wins under his belt already, it’s full steam ahead.
10. Denis Kudla over Lukas Lacko. This should be an entertaining battle between two solid ball-strikers. The difference will be mental; Kudla will undoubtedly want it more.
11. Evgeny Donskoy over Noah Rubin. There’s a huge discrepancy in firepower here. Unless Donskoy goes off the rails (which is very possible), he should have too much talent for Rubin.
12. Luca Vanni over Jan Satral. Unlike Satral, Vanni at least has some experience at the ATP level. The Italian also has the experience of having played some epic slam qualifying matches.
13. Rajeev Ram over Jurgen Melzer. Probably the toughest matchup to call of the whole 16. But it doesn’t seem like Melzer is completely back from his injury problems.
14. James McGee over Blake Mott. The sentimental pick is McGee. And it’s not a bad pick, either, because this is just about as good of a draw as you can ask for against Mott in the final round.
15. Julien Benneteau over Alex Bolt. Benneteau is probably the best player to have never won an ATP title. He’s also probably the best player in qualifying, even on the downside of his career.
16. Reilly Opelka over Casper Ruud. I’m only picking against one American in the final round of qualifying–and that American is playing against another American. We’ll see how those homer picks work out.
Joey Hanf (Cliff Drysdale Tennis):
1. Radek Stepanek over John-Patrick Smith. A rare serve & volley clash on a slow hard court. Smith can play at a very, high level, and he’ll have the crowd helping, but the veteran Stepanek will win the mental battle in this one.
2. Frances Tiafoe over Tim Smyczek. First off: epic matchup. Smee had a tough 2016, while Tiafoe had some nice breakthroughs. At the end of the day, it’s going to be easier for Frances to finish points on a regular basis. Foe as long as he keeps his head on straight.
3. Marco Trungelliti over Go Soeda. The Argentine has played well in Australia before; he took a set off Grigor Dimitrov last year in the second round. I’m confused as to why he isn’t ranked higher. The guy can play. Soeda is solid, but the match will be on Trungelliti’s racket.
4. Andrey Rublev over Peter Polansky. How good are some of these matchups? Maybe it’s just the nerd in me, but this is a good one. I like the Russian here; Rublev had a tough year in ’16 but hits the ball big. I think ’17 will be large for him.
5. Alexander Bublik over Duckhee Lee. Lee is a great story and Ben Rothenberg favorite. He will have a great career. But I’ll go with Bublik, who has an interesting style of play that will confuse the Korean.
6. Bjorn Fratangelo over Hiroki Moriya. Moriya is a nice player who will make a ton of balls. But as you’ll notice, I typically pick the player who will be dictating the points. Fratangelo will do that with his forehand. Melbourne court speed is perfect for him.
7. Ernesto Escobedo over Yuki Bhambri. Another good matchup. Bhambi plays well in Australia and will need to start winning matches at this level if he wants to live up to his former potential. But I’m extremely high on Escobedo; his rally ball is massive. He hasn’t totally reigned in his power yet, but it should be enough to get through to the main draw.
8. Ivan Dodig over Di Wu. Not the most thrilling of the FRQ matches. Dodig can play at a higher level than Wu, but he has struggled with consistency in singles. Still, I think he holds serve way easier and should win a close one.
9. Thomas Fabbiano over Andre Ghem. Pretty surprised that both of these guys have made it this far. Neither is a true hard-court player. I’ll go with Fabbiano in a toss-up.
10. Denis Kudla over Lukas Lacko. Lacko strikes it pure, but his movement has always been suspect. Kudla had a down year but should recover in ’17. He’ll grind this one out in three; fitness will play a big part in deciding it.
11. Evgeny Donskoy over Noah Rubin. Nice effort from Rubin to get here, and he’s defending a lot of points from last year. Ultimately I think Donskoy has more weapons from the ground and will pull out a razor-tight match.
12. Luca Vanni over Jan Satral. Vanni will have more rest heading into this one, and although his game is made for clay, the slow hard court of Melbourne should let him grind this one out.
13. Jurgen Melzer over Rajeev Ram. How does Rajeev Ram keep playing this well? This is a serious throwback with both guys well into their 30s. Melzer routined Taro Daniel, which tells me he’s hitting the ball well. I’ll go with Melzer because of court speed.
14. James McGee over Blake Mott. Mott has big power and a main-draw appearance would be a pretty nice breakthrough for him. But McGee is a slam qualies legend and will grind this one out.
15. Julien Benneteau over Alex Bolt. Benneteau is old and has been injured as of late, but I think he takes out Bolt simply with the fact that he’s been here before. Perhaps this could be the last year the Frenchman play singles before retirement.
16. Casper Ruud over Reilly Opelka. These FRQ matches are seriously good. Opelka won ATP matches in Atlanta and D.C. last year, while Ruud became the youngest Challenger winner in some time. This is a toss-up for me; I just think Ruud is too good from the ground and with no third-set tiebreak that will make the difference.
Steen Kirby (Tennis Atlantic):
1. Radek Stepanek over John-Patrick Smith. A player with more than100 Grand Slam matches vs. a player with just three. On paper Stepanek, even at 38, has a clear advantage over local favorite Smith. The serve and volleyer has had a tougher road in qualifying though, so he’s not a lock to advance.
2. Frances Tiafoe over Tim Smyczek. Tiafoe is 10 years younger than Smyczek and has a much brighter future. The veteran American has carved out a living by qualifying for slams and hanging around at the ATP level, but I have to go with Tiafoe’s upside in this match. He won both of their head-to-head meetings last year.
3. Go Soeda over Marco Trungelliti. A tough match to predict; both players have qualified for slams before, but have never broken through. On a hard court I lean towards Soeda to advance.
4. Andrey Rublev over Peter Polansky. The young gun Rublev continues to rise up to the tour level ranks. Polansky is a career journeyman and despite easing through qualifying thus far, he should fall to a better player in Rublev.
5. Duckhee Lee over Alexander Bublik. A pair of talented teens here. Lee would be would be making his slam debut, as (I believe), the first ever deaf ATP player. Bublik doesn’t have quite as inspiring of a story, buts till has plenty of promise. This should be a close match, but I’ll go with the higher-ranked Lee.
6. Bjorn Fratangelo over Hiroki Moriya. Fratangelo should have more upside in this one. Moriya is 26 years old and still hasn’t broken through, while the American has been slowly improving off of clay. Look for more from him in the future.
7. Ernesto Escobedo over Yuki Bhambri. Credit to Bhambri for fighting back from injuries to return to the cusp of Grand Slam main draws. This Indian still has plenty of talent, while Escobedo is known for taking large, lanky strikes at the ball. Both players have dominated qualifying thus far, but Escobedo’s power should be enough.
8. Ivan Dodig over Di Wu. Wu is 0-3 in slam matches, while Dodig was once an ATP top 30 player. I don’t count Wu out, but Dodig has more experience and should be the favorite.
9. Thomas Fabbiano over Andre Ghem. Both players had to play six sets of tennis to get this far, and neither is likely to advance in the main draw. On a hard court, Fabbiano should have an edge over Ghem.
10. Denis Kudla over Lukas Lacko. Kudla leads the H2H 2-1 and both players had to play five sets total to get this far. Lacko has always been talented, but his focus has been lacking, Kudla is a great ball-striker that lacks the weapons to rise significantly in the rankings. Lacko could boss the American around, but I think Kudla will force enough errors and play a cleaner match to prevail.
11. Noah Rubin over Evgeny Donskoy. Both players have had to battle to get this far. Donskoy has turned into a fringe ATP journeyman despite once being ranked higher. Rubin is a rising young American with talent to spare. Presuming Rubin can keep his errors down, he should win.
12. Luca Vanni over Jan Satral. Both players have been tested thus far in qualifying and are survivors. Vanni’s serve gives him more free points than Satral, and he’s slightly more accomplished. It’s a tough match to pick, but I’ll go with the Italian.
13. Jurgen Melzer over Rajeev Ram. A one-time ATP top 10 player, Melzer continues to grind away after injuries set his career back. The lefty remains a talented ball-striker, even if he’s lost more than a step due to age. Ram continues to chug along as well, having made a career out of serve-and-volley tennis. He snapped a long losing streak to win a pair of qualifying matches in Melbourne. Melzer is the favorite given he has a more versatile game.
14. Blake Mott over James McGee. Home fans will be backing Mott, but the 29-year-old McGee is one of the nicest and most passionate players on tour. A true journeyman, McGee has won four straight sets to reach the final round of qualifying. The young Mott has looked at ease in Melbourne thus far though, and I give him the edge.
15. Julien Benneteau over Alex Bolt. An Aussie still striving for a breakthrough at 2, against a veteran who is perhaps the best player to never win an ATP title. Bolt is better than his ranking would suggest, but Benneteau is still a step above and having not dropped a set so far, the Frenchman should continue into the main draw.
16. Reilly Opelka over Casper Ruud. A pair of talented teens here. Ruud could make his slam main draw debut with a win, having dropped one set thus far in qualifying. Opelka is an American who plays like a modified version of John Isner, with a tall frame and a hammer of a serve. Ruud has a very bright future, as perhaps Norway’s best-ever tennis player, but on a hard court Opelka should excel.
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who ya got?
Thank you very much for qualification”s ideas!
A great job!
1) Smith over Stepanek: The Czech veteran has played a lot of tennis and the crowd support for JP coupled with Stepanek’s likely fatigue has me picking the upset.
2) Tiafoe over Smyczek: This could go the way of the more experienced opponent, but I’ve gotta go with Tiafoe’s firepower and athleticism.
3) Soeda over Trungelliti: Soeda is so solid.
4) Rublev over Polansky: Polansky is a solid ball striker, but his game should give Rublev lots of opportunities to play aggressive and take this match.
5) Lee over Bublik: The deaf badass wins again. Big opportunity for both youngsters.
6) Fratangelo over Moriya: Moriya is a tough competitor, but Fratangelo is a solid favorite and is a pretty consistent ball striker.
7) Escobedo over Bhambri: Escobedo is in red hot form and should be too hot to handle for the Indian.
8) Dodig over Wu: Wu has game and even qualified her last year, but Dodig is a deserved grand slam main draw contestant and should win this one.
9) Fabbiano over Ghem: Fabbiano is a solid player and has some notable results at the challenger level and at this level on hard courts.
10) Kudla over Lacko: I’m liking Kudla’a form lately, and the success of the Americans here at AO qualies helps me make this pick even more.
11) Rubin over Donskoy: Rubin hasn’t really been the same since his awesome form was halted by an injury that made him miss pretty much all the clay court season. However, he’s really playing well here, and his good vibes from last year at this event may be why. I think he continues his good Aussie momentum.
12) Vanni over Satral: Vanni is four in the race to London lol. How? He won two challengers in a row at the end of last season after the ATP world tour finals. Still, he is playing well. His qualifying first round losses at Brisbane and Sydney clearly haven’t tarnished his confidence as he looks to qualify. I think he’ll do just that.
13) Ram over Melzer: Melzer is probably the safer pick as his game is more consistent and reliable than Rampras. I still think Ram’s serve will help him grind out a tough one, though.
14) McGee over Mott: Mott has a solid shot, but the hard-working McGee has a lot of fight and a solid game. I think he gets the job done. There actually may be some bias in this pick considering I train where he trains quite a bit and he’s good friends with one of my coaches. He’s a pretty cool guy. Bias aside, I really do think he will get the win and move on to the main draw. Mott has some serious game, though.
15) Benneteau over Bolt: It’s been a great tournament for Bolt as he tries to climb back up the rankings after an injury layoff. Benneateau, however, should be a step up too far.
16) Opelka over Ruud: The good vibes I’m feeling for Americans here combined with Opelka’s awesome serve and his potential have me picking him here. Although Ruud is also a total boss, I think Opelka will win enough big points with his serve to get through. Also, the American giant has good groundies and movement for a tall guy. He just needs to stay fit, and I think he will have a good 2017, starting with a successful qualification in Melbourne.
Hey I’m only picking against one American too! Also Smyczek.
A lot of agreement amongst you 3….enjoyed the predictions…..can’t wait til main draw action on Monday.
congrats to me on Sock
Congrats to you on Sock but could have gone either way. We will see who is right tonight between Gilles ”baby boy” Muller and Dan Evans…
Rubin must’ve done some work over the offseason because his serve had a lot more pop on it against Donskoy. His backhand, which is his best shot I think, was firing from all over the court, and he was really using his forehand well and hit some insane forehand zingers on the run. Fantastic performance from Rubin. Let’s go Noah!!
Holy cow Bolt beat Benneteau!! And another Aussie in Mott qualified too. Aussies Bolt and Mott added to the main draw while Americans Rubin, Opelka, Tiafoe, Fratangelo, and Escobedo are added. Exciting stuff. I just wish Duckhee Lee was in there too?