Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favorite to lift the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup for a second consecutive year heading into Saturday’s Australian Open final against Qinwen Zheng.
It is a lopsided matchup on paper in part because Zheng is ranked 15th in the world and is playing in her first Grand Slam final. In fact, the 21-year-old had never advanced past the quarters at any major prior to this fortnight. Sabalenka, on the other hand, is No. 2 in the rankings and seeks her second slam title in her third final (defeated Elena Rybakina at the 2023 Aussie Open; lost to Coco Gauff at the 2023 U.S. Open).
Moreover, Sabalenka was utterly dominant during her trip to the championship match. The 25-year-old did not drop a single set to Ella Seidel, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Lesia Tsurenko, Amanda Anisimova, Barbora Krejcikova, or Gauff. Only Gauff managed to force a tiebreaker in any set; other than that, no set was closer than 6-3. Sabalenka destroyed Seidel 6-0, 6-1 and Tsurenko 6-0, 6-0.
Unsurprisingly, Zheng had much more difficulty advancing despite getting an incredibly favorable draw. China’s top player did not face a single seeded opponent en route to the final, beating Ashlyn Krueger, Katie Boulter, Yafan Wang, Oceane Dodin, Anna Kalinskaya, and Dayana Yastremska. Zheng needed three sets against both Wang (including a decisive tiebreaker) and Kalinskaya.
Also in Sabalenka’s favor is their only previous encounter. In the 2023 U.S. Open quarterfinals, the favorite cruised past Zheng 6-1, 6-4.
Amidst the pressure of a Grand Slam final, there is no reason to think the inexperienced underdog will be much more competitive this time around.
Pick: Sabalenka in 2
WWW?
Saba.
@Big Al. You usually pick Aryna, what happened?
Tough draw, Jabeur, then Gauff semis and Rybakina destroyed her the week before. I had her in the final though
Hard to pick her after match with Ryba. Plus how she can unravel with nerves and beat herself.
She did really well.
Still think Ryba shouldn’t have been playing week before the slam completely unnecessarily as she had just won title. Shouldn’t have lost to Blinkova.
how did Rybakina beat Sabalenka 0 and 1?!?!
Was 0 and 3 wasn’t it?! Still a hammering. I didn’t see match.
Big pity we didn’t get Ryba and Saba again in the final. Could have been a great match.
And extra pressure of defending champion.
Yes I thought that would work against her but kudos to her for controlling her nerves and playing so well.
Meanwhile Ryba is out of top 4. She has a ton of points to defend in next few months especially at sunshine double. Very good chance she falls further in rankings. She’s one of my faves…
Seidel and Tsurenko are easy players for her and though Krejcikova is a good player, Saba just overpowers her.
Even though Zheng did not face a player inside the top 50 (only 2nd player ever this has happened to), she did face quality players in Boulter and Yastremska who played really well this whole event and looks like she could be in the top 10 pretty quickly, Wang was also tough since it was an all China match, Kalinskaya is better than her ranking too.