Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic on Sunday night in Rod Laver Arena. A three-team panel makes its predictions for another chapter of the rivalry.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. 4) Novak Djokovic
Ricky: Given the unknown variables involved after what transpired in the semifinals, this is one of the most difficult matches of all time to handicap. There is absolutely no way to know how either guy will turn up on Sunday. Heck, not even they know! After all, Djokovic is 38 years old and just played a four-hour and nine-minute match against Jannik Sinner that ended close to 2:00 am on Friday night (Saturday morning). Alcaraz’s semifinal against Alexander Zverev lasted five hours and 27 minutes — several hours of which the Spaniard suffered from a leg cramp. Two days later, anything could happen. But since I’m forced to choose a side here, I will roll with Djokovic. Despite his grueling semifinal, the Serb played only two and a half sets combined in the fourth round and quarterfinals. That is big for his recovery effort. Moreover, he is already a 10-time Australian Open champion (10-0 in finals!) and a 24-time major champion overall. Yes, 11 and 25 would be nice — but it wouldn’t change anything. The pressure is all on Alcaraz, for whom Aussie Open title No. 1 would change everything. At 22, he is bidding to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam. This occasion may not be easy to handle, and there have been times when we have seen pressure impact Alcaraz’s physical state. It isn’t a pick with confidence, but this feels like a favorable spot — perhaps even a spot of destiny — for Djokovic. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(7).
Cheryl: . Until Friday’s matches, I might have been tempted to use the term “underwhelming” to describe this year’s Australian Open. But, per usual, the world’s top 4 managed to liven things up just when we needed it. The match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev was absolutely breathtaking. It had it all — rama, cramping, a fifth-set comeback. Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic’s was less so from a quality perspective but equally high in the drama department. Come on. Djokovic is like 65 years old at this point. He’s a MACHINE. For him to do what he did against Sinner? Legendary. So, where does that leave us for the final? Under any other circumstances, it would be an easy Alcaraz pick. The Spaniard is better than Djokovic right now and 16 years his junior. And yet…I’m not going to do it. Pick Carlitos, that is. First, he’s never been to an Australian Open final (it’s his least successful major by far) AND the Career Slam is on the line. Why does this matter? Because he’s susceptible to letting “the moment” overcome him a bit. He also spent five and a half hours trying to beat Zverev. Conversely, the Australian Open is Djokovic’s best chance at No. 25 and the moment has NEVER gotten to him. I’m giving this one to the master. Djokovic in 5: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): First, Alcaraz “outlasted” Zverev in well over five hours to advance to his first Australian Open final. The length of the match brought back memories of both the 2009 Nadal-Verdasco AO SF as well as the endless 2012 Djokovic-Nadal AO final. A victory for the Spaniard in the final would secure the career Grand Slam at age 22. Next, Djokovic nearly mirrored Federer at Wimbledon in 2019 when he squandered two championship points in their final, as he nearly let Sinner back in the match despite having two match points. Djokovic also paralleled Federer to a degree when the Swiss defeated Djokovic in their 2011 Roland Garros semifinal — when the Serb’s 43-match winning streak came to an immediate halt. With this win, Djokovic put an end to Sinner’s 22-set winning streak against top-10 opponents and a 19-match winning streak at the Australian Open. Djokovic is 10-0 in Australian Open finals and is seeking his 25th career major. The 38-year-old is the better hard-court player, however the ability for even him to be able to compete at full strength 41 hours after a physically and emotionally draining semifinal may be too much to ask. Concurrently, Alcaraz will feel the pressure of attempting to win the lone major that has eluded him for the first time and he, too, may not be in an ideal physical state on Sunday night in Melbourne due to breakdowns in his body during the majority of his semifinal. At the end of the day, youth wins out. Alcaraz in 4: 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Carlos only 22, already on 7,as talented as any player in history , that’s what it looks like