Expert picks are back for the Australian Open fourth round on Sunday, when a couple of blockbuster battles are in the cards: Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien and Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik. A two-team panel makes its predictions.
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. (25) Learner Tien
Ricky: Medvedev and Tien played the match of the tournament 12 months ago, when Tien pulled off a 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-7(8), 1-6, 7-6(10-7) upset. Well, the Medvedev of 2025 ain’t walkin’ through that door. The three-time Aussie Open runner-up is 22-4 in his last 26 matches, a stretch that features two titles — thus ending a drought that lasted more than two years. Tien is also playing great, having wrapped up last season with a NextGen ATP Finals triumph and showing no signs of slowing down in ’26. The result should be another epic contest between these two counter-punchers. I’m giving Medvedev a very slight edge this time around. One, the revenge factor is real. Two, in the pressure-packed moments he can win a free point with a big first serve — and can also return from a million miles behind the baseline and force Tien to play another long rally. Medvedev in 5: 4-6, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(10-7).
Cheryl: The Australian Open round of 16 is giving this year. Normally a match between the world No. 12 and No. 29 would not be the most highly anticipated match of the tournament so far — but here we are. This is in part because when they played last year, when Med racked up approximately $453,615 in fines for doing things like kicking a camera, throwing his racket at an advertising sign, and punching his equipment bag. He also skipped his post-match presser after he lost. Honestly, Medvedev has an issue with Tien’s game more than anything else. The American plays clean, high-percentage tennis. And that means lloooonngggg points. Tien just doesn’t donate to the Medvedev cause. But I’m giving the Russian the nod this time. He has already tripled the number of Grand Slam match wins he had all of last season and it seems that the split from coach Gilles Cervara was just what the doctor ordered. Medvedev in 4: 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(11).
(10) Alexander Bublik vs. (6) Alex de Minaur
Ricky: This could be the second-best match of the tournament (behind Medvedev vs. Tien!). Bublik continues to play incredible tennis; De Minaur is looking as solid as ever and has the benefit of all of Australia behind him. Something’s gotta give on Sunday — and I’m not sure what it will be. At perhaps any other tournament, I’d probably roll with Bublik’s bigger game. In the Land Down Under, however, I just can’t pick against the Demon. The world No. 6 was outstanding against Frances Tiafoe on Friday night and I think that kind of defense that was on display can ultimately break down Bublik over the course of five sets. And even with the Kazakh’s new and improved mental game, the crowd could still be a factor. De Minaur in 5: 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-7(6), 6-3.
Cheryl: I don’t want to speak for Alex de Minaur, but I can’t imagine he’s happy that he’ll be seeing Alexander Bublik on the other side of the net. First, Bublik seems to have found some unexpected favor with the tennis gods — because he just doesn’t lose at the moment. And I kind of mean that literally. He’s 7-0 in 2026. Sure, De Minaur is going to have the home crowd firmly on his side. But there’s simply no denying that Bublik’s best is too good for De Minaur’s best. The Aussie snagged wins in his first three matches with Bublik, but that was back when the most notable part of the Kazakh’s game was his inconsistency. Unless the old Bublik makes an appearance, I can’t see de Minaur pulling this one out. Bublik in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-1.
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