Australian Open expert picks: Federer vs. Tomic

The Grandstand welcomes a four-team panel to make its picks for Saturday night’s showdown between Roger Federer and Bernard Tomic.

(2) Roger Federer vs. Bernard Tomic

Ricky: In the likely words of Brad Gilbert, it’s the Fed Express vs. Weekend at Bernie’s. And it’s not going to be a good weekend for the Australian’s camp. Federer leads the head-to-head series 3-0 and the two most recent encounters have been nowhere near competitive. Tomic is playing the best tennis of his life, but Federer’s Melbourne form is underrated. The Swiss absolutely crushed Benoit Paire and Nikolay Davydenko and both were such blowouts that he did little more than mess around after securing breaks early in every set. A free lesson–again–this will be. Federer 6-3, 7-5, 6-2.

Rachel (@TheSportBird): One approach to having to slay a dragon is to trivialize him with brash and absurd proclamations. Of course, eventually David still had to ping Goliath with a rock in just the right way. So I hope Bernie’s going to bring a pretty great slingshot to his match against the potential GOAT. Tomic has faced Federer three times and managed to take one set. Fed has all but glided through his first two Australian Open matches while in Tomic’s last match, he had to face four tiebreakers over almost three hours in the brutal heat to take down 120th-ranked Daniel Brands. I mean, really. Be grateful for the lesson you’re gonna get, kid. Grow from it. I think your coach is with me. Federer 6-4, 6-4, 6-4.

Steen (Tennis East Coast): Tomic, who is the last Aussie left in either men’s or women’s draw,  is certainly confident going into this third-round clash with the Swiss maestro, but I’m not sure whether that helps or hurts him given the circumstances. He hasn’t lost a match this year and hasn’t had his serve broken since the quarterfinals of Sydney, but the opponents he has faced (such as Brands, whom he eked past in four tough sets in round two) aren’t exactly known for being great breakers of serve and are nowhere near Federer’s level. As for Fed, he has shown no real issues, rolling through both his matches so far against Paire and Davydenko, neither of whom put up that tough of a fight. I think Tomic will give a good account for himself, but I’m not sure he will be able to come up with an effective gameplan to go shot for shot with Federer, and the Swiss should get through this in four sets. Federer 6-4, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4.


Josh (The Sixth Set): Melbourne Park is only big enough for one goat these days and, to be honest, Bernie’s ego has given this matchup more hype than it really deserves. Maybe the 20-year-old Aussie wasn’t present for his straight-set schooling by Federer in last year’s round of 16. Saying you’d “love to get in a position to play Roger” and that first “he has to get there as well” is detrimentally goading–er, goating–the world No. 2. Fed emptied his toolbox then, rattling the youngster with his dizzying shotmaking variety, striking 45 winners to Tomic’s 13. Tomic was too passive with his gameplan then and has not improved enough over the past year to make the match more competitive this time. It won’t necessarily be a blowout, but I’m tipping Federer to prevail in straight sets once again. Federer 7-5, 6-3, 6-3.

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