Australian Open draw analysis: Djokovic, Alcaraz headline mostly balanced bracket  

The presence of an unseeded Rafael Nadal in the Australian Open draw—regardless of where he landed—would have set the tennis world on fire. But with Nadal out of the tournament and following Thursday’s draw ceremony that didn’t hand anyone a clear advantage or disadvantage, there aren’t any fan bases currently up in arms. On paper, the season’s first Grand Slam of the season should be a fair fight. 

With main-draw action beginning on Sunday, it’s time to break down the 2023 men’s singles field. 

Djokovic’s quarter

Although there is no reason to think that Novak Djokovic will have any trouble reaching at least the semifinals, his road to get there may be worthy of some popcorn. The world No. 1 could face fellow future Hall of Famer Andy Murray in the third round and either Ben Shelton or Stan Wawrinka in the last 16 (Djokovic beat Shelton in the 2023 U.S. Open semifinals, after which they—or at least their respective fans—had a well-documented spat). Stefanos Tsitsipas, whom Djokovic defeated from two sets down in the 2021 French Open title match, is a potential quarterfinal opponent. 

Best first-round matchup — (7) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Matteo Berrettini 

On paper, Tsitsipas vs. Berrettini is the most mouth-watering matchup in the entire first-round lineup. Will it live up to the hype on the court? Maybe not. Berrettini played sparingly in 2023 due to physical problems and has not been seen on the court since sustaining an ankle injury at the U.S. Open. Moreover, the Italian trails the head-to-head series 3-0. On the bright side for him, Tsitsipas is also a question mark. The seventh-ranked Greek has not reached a final since winning Los Cabos in early August and his 2023 campaign also ended in injury (back) at the Nitto ATP Finals. 

Best potential second-round matchup – Andy Murray vs. Gael Monfils 

Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Ben Shelton vs. Stan Wawrinka 

Possible surprises – I can’t see anyone upsetting Djokovic prior to the semis. Murray and Gael Monfils are too far into their careers; Shelton isn’t far enough into his. However, there could be some unexpected developments in the bottom half of this quarter. As mentioned above, Tsitsipas is vulnerable. No. 12 seed Taylor Fritz has consistently underwhelmed at slams. As such, this is a good opportunity for Lorenzo Musetti to make a run to the quarterfinals. 

Sinner’s quarter

Landing in Djokovic’s half isn’t ideal, but Jannik Sinner otherwise has a pretty good draw. The red-hot Italian should roll through three rounds (Botic van de Zandschulp is a well-known first-round opponent but probably won’t offer much resistance). Karen Khachanov or Frances Tiafoe could present some problems in the last 16, but Sinner would be a heavy favorite in either matchup. The other side of this section is more stacked with the likes of Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, and Sebastian Korda. 

Best first-round matchup — (17) Frances Tiafoe vs. Borna Coric 

Not unlike Tsitsipas vs. Berrettini, this is a matchup that is sparkling on paper but may turn out to be a snooze on the court. Coric, who was plagued by a shoulder injury throughout the 2023 campaign, has not won a traditional ATP tournament match since Winston-Salem in August and has not played one since the U.S. Open. However, it’s not like Tiafoe is an especially reliable performer and the American lost their only previous head-to-head matchup in five sets during 2018 Davis Cup competition. 

Best potential second-round matchup – (10) Alex de Minaur vs. Matteo Arnaldi 

Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Andrey Rublev vs. (29) Sebastian Korda 

Possible surprises — It is true that Rublev is a Grand Slam quarterfinal machine, but I think De Minaur has a great chance to treat the home crowd to a quarterfinal run in that section of the bracket. Rublev has a tough draw with Korda looming in round three, so the fifth-ranked Russian may not even make it to the second week. Either way, De Minaur played great at the United Cup (including a win over Djokovic) and I’ll back him to beat either Rublev or Korda to reach the quarters. 

Medvedev’s quarter

I won’t say that this is automatically the best of the four quarters (mainly because Daniil Medvedev is arguably the weakest of the top-four seeds), but it is definitely the most interesting and also the deepest from top to bottom. Medvedev may have to beat Emil Ruusuvuori, the winner of Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Dominic Thiem, and Grigor Dimitrov just to reach the quarterfinals. At that point the list of potential opponents includes Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz, Ugo Humbert, and Arthur Fils. In addition to Ruusuvuori and Fils, the unseeded contingent here also features Roman Safiullin, Denis Shapovalov, Thanasi Kokkinakis, and Marton Fucsovics. 

Best first-round matchup — (27) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Dominic Thiem 

Are you sensing a trend with these first-rounders? In terms of name recognition, Auger-Aliassime vs. Thiem is as big as it gets. Three or four years ago this would be a showdown worthy of a Grand Slam semifinal—if not even a final. Now, though, it’s exactly where it belongs in the first round. Auger-Aliassime was a complete disaster in 2023 and Thiem has been a shadow of his former self since suffering a wrist injury in the summer of 2021. Is this a dream matchup or a nightmare? 

Best potential second-round matchup – (28) Tallon Griekspoor vs. Arthur Fils 

Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (23) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 

Possible surprises — A whole host of players have a realistic opportunity to advance out of this section and secure a semifinal spot. Medvedev and Rune won’t be easy outs, but they are nowhere close to dominant and their draws are rough. Medvedev could very easily lose in week one and Rune—whose possible third-round foes are Fils, Safiullin, and Tallon Griekspoor—could do the same. Dimitrov is on fire these days and always plays well in Australia, so he has to be a trendy semifinal pick. 

Alcaraz’s quarter
 
Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul have developed a bit of a rivalry and there is a chance that it adds another chapter in round four of the Australian Open. However, Paul will probably have a very tough time making it come to fruition. The 14th-seeded American is likely to face Jack Draper in the last 64 and he just got clobbered by none other than Draper 6-1, 6-4 in Adelaide. Alcaraz may not run into a single seeded opponent until the quarterfinals, but Alexander Zverev will almost certainly advance that far. The in-form German has an ideal draw through four rounds on his way to a showdown with Alcaraz. 

Best first-round matchup — Dan Evans vs. Lorenzo Sonego 

There isn’t a whole lot to choose from right off the bat in this section. That being said, this could be a really good match—perhaps even better than the other first-rounders mentioned above that boast more star power. Both Sonego and Evans bring aggressive, entertaining styles of tennis to the table. Sonego is in decent enough form and Evans played pretty well in Adelaide as he returned from a calf injury sustained last fall in Vienna. This has all the makings of a fun, competitive contest. 

Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Tommy Paul vs. Jack Draper 

Best potential third-round matchup – (6) Alexander Zverev vs. Jiri Lehecka 

Possible surprises — It’s hard to see the quarterfinal matchup in this section being anything other than Alcaraz vs. Zverev. There should, however, be plenty of unseeded players in the third round and perhaps even a couple in week two. On that potential list are Draper, Miomir Kecmanovic, Juncheng Shang, Max Purcell, and Alex Michelsen. Purcell is part of an especially wide-open section of the bracket occupied by seeds Casper Ruud and Cameron Norrie.