Auckland and Sydney previews and predictions

One week down in the 2016 ATP season; one week to go until the Australian Open. This week lacks the star power of the opener (which featured Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in Doha, Roger Federer in Brisbane, and Stan Wawrinka in Chennai), but the tournaments in Auckland and Sydney still boast strong fields—especially by the standards of events that immediately preceding Grand Slams. Among those in action are David Ferrer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kevin Anderson, Bernard Tomic, and Grigor Dimitrov.

ASB Classic

Where: Auckland, New Zealand
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $463,520
Points: 250

Top seed: David Ferrer
Defending champion: Jiri Vesely

Draw analysis: Look no further than the unseeded contingent to realize the kind of depth that this Auckland field boasts. Among the dangerous floaters are Steve Johnson, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Jack Sock, Vasek Pospisil, Donald Young, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and defending champion Jiri Vesely. Ferrer may be in the favorite as the only top 10 player in the draw, but he will by no means have an easy time of things. The Spaniard could open against Johnson before a possible date with Chennai semifinalist Benoit Paire. Anderson, Garcia-Lopez, Sock, Pospisil, and Ivo Karlovic are also in the top half.

Isner and Tsonga are on a semifinal collision course on the other side. Neither, of course, is any kind of lock to make it that far. Tsonga is once again a huge question mark due to recent physical problems and his second-round match following a bye is likely to come against Kohlschreiber. Isner awaits either fellow American and occasional doubles partner Sam Querrey (Isner is playing with Lukas Rosol this week) or Chennai semifinalist Aljaz Bedene. Vesely, Young, and Roberto Bautista Agut are also contenders in the bottom half.

First-round upset alert: Joao Sousa over (6) Fabio Fognini. Fognini turned things around in a major way on hard courts late last season, but the start of 2015—at least on the hard stuff—was disastrous for the Italian. He is 0-2 lifetime in Auckland after dropping his opener last year to none other than Juan Martin Del Potro. All three previous head-to-head meetings have been competitive, with Fognini leading the series 2-1.

Hot: John Isner, Kevin Anderson, Benoit Paire, Steve Johnson, Jack Sock, Aljaz Bedene

Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Lukas Rosol, Pablo Andujar, Victor Estrella Burgos, Sam Querrey, Benjamin Becker

Semifinal predictions: David Ferrer over Jack Sock and John Isner over Joao Sousa

Final: Ferrer over Isner

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Apia International

Where: Sydney, Australia
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $404,780
Points: 250

Top seed: Bernard Tomic
Defending champion: Viktor Troicki

Draw analysis: Tournaments immediately preceding Grand Slams often produce surprising results and certainly more than a fair share of unexpected champions. While Vesely triumphed in Auckland, Troicki lifted the Sydney winner’s trophy as a qualifier. More of the same could be in the offing because this title looks completely up for grabs. The Sydney field is laced with parity, as the top seed (Tomic) is ranked only 18^th in the world and the eight seeds are separated by a mere 18 ranking spots (No. 8 Alexandr Dolgopolov is 36^th).

The bottom half of the draw is especially intriguing. Dolgopolov led Ukraine to a runner-up showing at the Hopman Cup and Coric is also coming off a grueling week, as he reached the Chennai final before succumbing to Wawrinka. Dolgopolov and Dimitrov could go head-to-head in the quarterfinals. Coric has a tough road with Gilles Muller right off the bat and Dominic Thiem waiting in round two. Tomic and Troicki own the byes on the other side and have to be considered clear favorites to reach the semis.

First-round upset alert: Denis Istomin over (5) Andreas Seppi. It should come as no real surprise that these two guys drew each other in the first round. They seem to square off all the time, although their showdowns usually come at the Grand Slam level (five of nine, to be exact). Amazingly, all five of their major meetings have required five sets. Seppi leads the head-to-head series 6-3, but Istomin has taken two of the last three encounters.

Hot: Bernard Tomic, Dominic Thiem, Borna Coric, John Millman

Cold: Julien Benneteau, Tommy Robredo, Pablo Cuevas

Semifinals: Bernard Tomic over Viktor Troicki and Jeremy Chardy over Grigor Dimitrov

Final: Tomic over Chardy

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!