It’s safe to say that the stakes are higher than usual for a week with nothing more than a pair of ATP 250s on the schedule. There is still one spot available at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti in contention. Auger-Aliassime, who stormed into the current No. 8 spot with a runner-up showing at the Paris Masters, is playing in Metz. Musetti will have to win the inaugural Athens title to have a chance. Novak Djokovic and Alexander Bublik are also on the schedule this week.
Let’s break down the Athens and Metz draws.
Hellenic Championship
Where: Athens, Greece
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 766,715 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: None (inaugural event)
Draw analysis: Musetti was in prime Turin position heading into Paris, but Auger-Aliassime’s run to the final turned the tables. Now it’s a win-or-go-home situation (well, he would actually be an alternate at the year-end championship) for the Italian in Athens. He is the second favorite behind Djokovic, and as the top two seeds they obviously wouldn’t face each other until the final. Before getting there, Musetti will kick off his week against either Botic van de Zandschulp or Stan Wawrinka and could meet Luciano Darderi, Alexei Popyrin, or Sebastian Korda in the semis.
It should be noted that Musetti is eliminated if Auger-Aliassime reaches the Metz semifinals–regardless of his own result in Athens. As such, motivation for the world No. 8 could come to an abrupt end if Auger-Aliassime does indeed take care of business in Metz. Speaking of motivation, it’s hard to think that Djokovic will be overly interested in making a deep run at an ATP 250 event with possible Nitto ATP Finals participation on the horizon. All things considered, this title feels like it is completely up for grabs.
Hot: Lorenzo Musetti, Luciano Darderi, Kamil Majchrzak, Damir Dzumhur, Ivan Ivanov
Cold: Alexei Popyrin, Sebastian Korda, Stan Wawrinka, Miomir Kecmanovic, Laslo Djere
Quarterfinal predictions: Nuno Borges over Novak Djokovic, Brandon Nakashima over Reilly Opelka, Kamil Majchrzak over Damir Dzumhur, and Lorenzo Musetti over Alexandre Muller
Semifinals: Borges over Nakashima and Majchrzak over Musetti
Final: Borges over Majchrzak
Where: Metz, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 596,035 Euros
Top seed: Felix Auger-Aliassime
2024 champion: Benjamin Bonzi (not playing)
Draw analysis: It’s obviously hard to see Auger-Aliassime going beyond the semifinals. Turin begins on Sunday, so the 10th-ranked Canadian won’t want to use up any more energy than absolutely necessary in Metz. Auger-Aliassime could have a tough quarterfinal match on his hands against either Cameron Norrie, Arthur Cazaux, or Valentin Royer. If he gets through that round, the door to the final would be open for someone like Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Rinderknech, or Lorenzo Sonego.
Daniil Medvedev’s year-end championship hopes evaporated with a Paris quarterfinal loss to Alexander Zverev, so he has withdrawn from Metz. That leaves Bublik as the highest-seeded player in the bottom half of the bracket, but he is already guaranteed to be the second alternate in Turin–so it’s kind of baffling to even see his name in the Metz draw. Look for Corentin Moutet, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Learner Tien, or Matteo Berrettini to take advantage.
Hot: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Bublik, Arthur Rinderknech, Corentin Moutet, Daniel Altmaier, Hugo Gaston, Valentin Royer
Cold: Matteo Berrettini, Quentin Halys, Aleksandar Vukic, Aleksandar Kovacevic, Adrian Mannarino
Quarterfinal predictions: Felix Auger-Aliassime over Arthur Cazaux, Arthur Rinderknech over
Flavio Cobolli, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard over Aleksandar Kovacevic, and Corentin Moutet over Learner Tien
Semifinals: Rinderknech over Auger-Aliassime and Moutet over Mpetshi Perricard
Final: Moutet over Rinderknech
who ya got?
Now we know Med is out :
And , FAA and Bublik cant be taken seriously to win this :
Cobolli over FAA, Moutet over Bublik
Noutet over Cobolli
I had Djoko over Musetti in the other , thinking it was Belgrade.
Stick and pin : Musetti over Nakashima
FAA is OUT