A jam-packed New Year’s Day of College Football Playoff action includes a quarterfinal showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. Indiana is currently where Alabama is accustomed to being: at No. 1 in the nation. The Crimson Tide may be down a bit this season, but they cannot be discounted after ousting SEC rival Texas A&M in the CFP opening round.
Let’s dive into my Alabama vs. Indiana picks.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers odds
Money line: Alabama -130 / Indiana +110
Spread: Alabama +7 (-110) / Indiana -7 (-110)
Total: Over 48 (-112) / Under 48 (-108)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers best bet #1: Under 48 (-110)
Despite coming back from 17 points down to beat Texas A&M, questions remain regarding Alabama’s offense. Running back Jam Miller is banged up, and even when he was healthy it was a struggle for the Crimson Tide to run the ball with much success. Now the Tide have to face an Indiana defense that is third nationally in rushing success rate allowed and second in opponents’ EPA per rush. Although both offenses are capable of putting up points, it feels like each defense should have the edge in this matchup. The Hoosiers boast one of the best defenses in the nation, which was especially evident against Oregon and Ohio State. Their ability to dominate up front should be on display once again at the expense of a ‘Bama offensive line that is somewhere between decent and mediocre.
If we assume that the Tide’s ground game will be somewhat stagnant on Thursday, a lot of pressure will be on QB Ty Simpson. However, Simpson’s production has dipped since a red-hot first half of the 2025 campaign — and it doesn’t project to improve in a matchup with Indiana’s defense. On the other side of the ball, the Crimson Tide’s D is solid. Nick Saban may be gone, but defensive coordinator Kane Womack is one of the better defensive minds in the land. If Ohio State limited Fernando Mendoza and company to 13 points in the Big Ten Championship, Alabama should at least be able to keep them to something in the mid-20s at most.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers best player prop bet: Kaelon Black Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
Black and Roman Hemby have split carries for the Hoosiers, so it’s hard to say who will have the hot hand on New Year’s Day. However, chances are good that the volume will be high for both players. Even with the Heisman Trophy-winning Mendoza at QB, running the ball may be Indiana’s best option. After all, Alabama is 10th nationally against the pass (168.4 yards per game allowed). The Crimson Tide are respectable against the run, too, although 120.6 yards per game allowed on 3.7 yards per carry are by no means dominant numbers.
In the first eight games of this season, Black got more than 10 carries just twice — and more than 11 only once. In four of the last five games, the Virginia Beach native has rushed at least 12 times. He has amassed 67 yards or more in two straight games and 64 yards yards or more in five of the last seven. This stretch includes a 110-yard effort against Maryland on November 1. Moreover, Black has scored five of his seven TDs in the past seven contests, so it’s clear that the Indiana coaching staff has full trust in him — including in the red zone. With a modest yardage quota (10 short of Hemby’s), Black has good value to surpass it.
read more:
Oregon vs. Texas Tech predictions
Ole Miss vs. Georgia predictions
Miami vs. Ohio State predictions
Leave a Reply