Acapulco final preview and pick: Ferrer vs. Nadal

Something will have to give when top seed David Ferrer faces a resurgent Rafael Nadal in the Acapulco final on Sunday. Ferrer is seeking a fourth consecutive title at this event, but he is just 4-16 lifetime against Nadal.

David Ferrer and Rafael Nadal will be squaring off for the 21st time in their careers when they do battle in the final of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel on Saturday night. Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 16-4, including 13-1 on clay. The former world No. 1 has won five in a row (all on the slow stuff) after coming out on top in all three of their 2012 encounters.

While Nadal ended last season on the sidelines, however, Ferrer emerged as one of the hottest players on tour. The fourth-ranked Spaniard won consecutive titles in Valencia and Paris, dominated both of his Davis Cup final rubbers, and went 2-1 at the World Tour Finals. He is up to more of the same in 2013. Ferrer reached the semis in both Doha and at the Australian Open and he already owns titles in Auckland and Buenos Aires. So far in Acapulco, the top seed has taken out Antonio Veic, Wayne Odesnik, Paolo Lorenzi, and Fabio Fognini to improve his 2013 record to 21-2.

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Nadal, of course, missed seven months with a knee injury before returning to action last month in Vina del Mar. The fifth-ranked Spaniard did not show noticeable improvement from Vina del Mar (where he finished runner-up to Horacio Zeballos) to Sao Paulo (where he won the title), but he has picked up the pace this week. Nadal dismissed Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, Martin Alund, and Leonardo Mayer before scoring his best win of the season–7-5, 6-4 over Nicolas Almagro on Friday night.

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“I’m in no condition to be or even say that I’m the favorite because I’m facing one of the rivals in the best shape of the circuit,” Nadal said of facing Ferrer. “Not only he’s a great player, he’s playing great. To win tomorrow I will have to play a perfect match or otherwise it would be impossible to win it. I don’t think I’m to his level yet, but I’m ready to give it a try.”

The 11-time Grand Slam champion always that, literally at just about every tournament, but this time he may actually be telling the truth. Ferrer is still on fire and although Nadal’s performance against Almagro was encouraging, Ferrer is a different beast altogether. Furthermore, Ferrer is the three-time defending champion in Acapulco. This is a considerable step up in competition for Nadal, and it could be a little too much a little too soon.

Pick: Ferrer in 3

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