Alexander Zverev, Ugo Humbert, and Tommy Paul are coming off stellar 2024 campaigns and now find themselves in the Australian Open fourth round. A resurgent Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will also try to keep his miracle run going.
(14) Ugo Humbert vs. (2) Alexander Zverev
It will be a rematch of the recent Paris Masters final when Zverev and Humbert meet again in round four of the Australian Open on Sunday. Zverev rolled 6-2, 6-2 for the title, taking a 2-1 lead in the head-to-head series. Fortunately for Humbert, their other two encounters were much different stories. The French left-hander prevailed 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3 on the grass courts of Halle in 2021 before losing a 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5) thriller at the Paris Masters in 2023. That’s right; the player with home-court advantage has lost all three of their matchups.
The new stage is a neutral site in Melbourne, where Zverev has been dominant so far this fortnight. A two-time Grand Slam runner-up, Zverev booked his spot in week two by easing past Lucas Pouille, Pedro Martinez, and Jake Fearnley in straight sets. Humbert dropped one set to compatriot Arthur Fils on Friday before Fils retired early in the fourth set with Humbert leading 4-6, 7-5, 6-4, 1-0. That was a battle of the walking wounded, as the No. 14 seed took a medical timeout for a left-shoulder issue. Even if Humbert is 100 percent, their lopsided Paris contest and Zverev’s awesome current form point to this being one-way traffic.
Pick: Zverev in 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. (12) Tommy Paul
Davidovich Fokina’s run to the Aussie Open fourth round was hard to believe, and not just because of his disappointing form going into the tournament. The 66th-ranked Spaniard beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the longest match of the event to date (four hours and 51 minutes) from two sets down and then staged another two-set comeback–while also saving a pair of match points–to stun Jakub Mensik 3-6, 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-4, 6-2 in 30 hours and 30 minutes on Friday evening.
It doesn’t get any easier with Paul on the other side of the net. And you don’t have to tell that Davidovich Fokina, who has already lost three times in three tries against the American. Paul prevailed in five sets at the 2023 Australian Open before making quick work of their next two matchups later that season in Miami and at the U.S. Open. All signs point to the world No. 12 taking care of business once again. He endured a scare of his own with a five-setter against Christopher O’Connell in round one, but Paul raised his level considerably in defeats of Kei Nishikori and Roberto Carballes Baena. This is almost certainly where Davidovich Fokina hits the wall.
Pick: Paul in 4
WWW?
Zv in 4; TP in 3.
good picks