Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz added another memorable chapter to their rivalry in the recent Beijing final, won by Alcaraz in a third-set tiebreaker. There will not, however, be a rematch in the semis of the Rolex Shanghai Masters.
Sinner and Alcaraz remained on a collision course heading into the last eight, but that is where a red-hot Tomas Machac had other ideas. Machac stunned the second-ranked Spaniard 7-6(5), 7-5 to book his spot alongside Sinner on semifinal Saturday. The result will be their second head-to-head meeting after Sinner dominated their only previous encounter 6-4, 6-2 at this year’s Miami Open.
However, the world No. 1 will be facing a much different version of Machac seven months later. The 23-year-old boasts a 30-19 record in 2024 that has him up to No. 33 in the world. Machac is seeded in Shanghai (30th)–and seeded is exactly what he will be at the 2025 Australian Open (and presumably for all of the Grand Slams next season). Following wins over Alcaraz, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, and Tommy Paul, Machac is projected to reach at least No. 25 in the next rankings.
Of course, Sinner is similarly on fire and showing signs of producing another successful fall swing. The Italian was dominant this time of year in 2023 and so far in Asia this time around he has already delivered a runner-up performance in Beijing to go along with this semifinal showing in Shanghai. Sinner has improved his season record to 63-6 thanks to defeats of Taro Daniel, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Ben Shelton, and Daniil Medvedev.
As Machac has shown several times this year, he can beat anyone on any given day. However, he can also go off the rails at any moment. With Sinner, you always know what you are going to get every time he takes the court–when healthy. The top seed is healthy right now and should be playing freely, having mathematically clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking on Thursday.
Look for Sinner to secure his place in yet another ATP final.
Pick: Sinner in 2
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The Czech underdog, Machac in 3