Montreal SF preview and prediction: Rublev vs. Arnaldi

Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi will battle for a surprising final spot at the National Bank Open when they square off for the third time in their careers on Monday.

Rublev, of course, is no stranger to this stage of Masters 1000 events. However, nothing about his form suggested that he was in line for a successful week in Montreal. The eighth-ranked Russian had been 4-6 in his last 10 matches heading into this tournament, but he has turned things around with victories over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Brandon Nakashima, and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner.


Arnaldi had previously been past the third round at the Masters 1000 level only once (Miami this spring) and he had never reached a quarterfinal. Arguably the best week of the 23-year-old Italian’s career has seen him knock off Mackenzie McDonald, Karen Khachanov, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (via third-set retirement), and Kei Nishikori. Thus continues a stellar season for Arnaldi, who has won 24 main-tour matches and locked up a seed for the U.S. Open with his performance in Montreal.

Although this definitely could go either way, the intangibles favor Rublev. Arnaldi has defeated an opponent ranked better than No. 18 only once at a Masters 1000 tournament. He has also never advanced this deep at such a big event, whereas Rublev is a two-time Masters 1000 champion and three-time runner-up. It’s also worth noting that Arnaldi did not finish his quarterfinal contest against Nishikori until right around midnight on Saturday.

Rublev came out of nowhere to triumph in Madrid earlier this year; he could eventually do the same in Montreal.

Pick: Rublev in 3

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