Rome final preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Jarry

Alexander Zverev and Nicolas Jarry will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers when they battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia title on Sunday.

Zverev leads the head-to-head series 4-2, but they have split their four previous clay-court contests at two wins apiece. They last met on the dirt at the 2023 Geneva tournament, where Jarry prevailed 7-6(3), 6-3. Zverev responded by winning their next two encounters–7-5, 6-3 on the grass of Halle and 6-1, 6-7(5), 6-3 on the hard courts of Beijing.

Can Jarry turn the tide back in his favor? The 24th-ranked Chilean is obviously a considerable underdog on paper, but he cannot be discounted. Jarry has been outstanding on clay throughout his career, with all six of his previous ATP finals (three titles, three runner-up performances) coming on this surface. He is back in another championship match following Rome victories over Matteo Arnaldi, Stefano Napolitano, Alexandre Muller, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Tommy Paul.

Whereas Jarry’s appearance in the final is a huge surprise, it is nothing new for Zverev. The fifth-ranked German lifted the trophy at this event in 2017 before finishing runner-up in 2018. A third trip to the Rome final has come at the expense of Aleksandar Vukic, Luciano Darderi, Nuno Borges, Taylor Fritz, and Alejandro Tabilo.

It has been a friendly draw for the most part and Zverev handled it with relative ease through four rounds before struggling with Tabilo on Friday. The 27-year-old lost the opening set 6-1 and was pushed to the brink of defeat in a second-set tiebreaker before finally taking control. Zverev did well to come back, but Tabilo–with the biggest win of his career in his sights–clearly got tight.

Jarry is unlikely to be so generous if Zverev turns in a similarly mediocre performance. The 28-year-old has plenty of experience in finals–albeit not in Masters 1000s–and wields a huge-hitting game with which he can win free points in pressure-packed situations. He did that especially well against Paul in a 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3 semifinal victory.

With the pressure on Zverev as the favorite, an upset for Jarry on his favorite surface is very possible.

Pick: Jarry in 3

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