2023 men’s singles Grand Slam predictions

The 2023 tennis season is here, which means it is time to make predictions for the year’s four Grand Slams. Can Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic add to their haul, or are more Carlos Alcaraz-like breakthroughs in the cards?

Australian Open – Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has finished runner-up Down Under in each of the past two seasons. He never really recovered from his epic collapse in last year’s final against Rafael Nadal and has fallen to No. 7 in the rankings after peaking at No. 1. That could be a blessing in disguise for Medvedev. The pressure is off heading into 2023, with the spotlight still on Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal in addition to new Grand Slam champion Carlos Alcaraz. It won’t be easy with Djokovic getting the green light to play at Melbourne Park, but don’t be surprised if the Russian wins his second major championship.

Runner-up (if on opposite side of the draw) – Novak Djokovic


French Open – Rafael Nadal

Every time Nadal wins another French Open, the question of it will be his last is always asked. Some thought his reign may have been over when he failed to lift the trophy on back-to-back occasions in 2015 and 2016. All Nadal has done since then is win it five of the last six times. Until the Spaniard gives a reason to bet against him at Roland Garros, it isn’t a wise move. Although Nadal is not going into 2023 with much confidence, barring injury he should be up to speed in time for the clay-court swing.

Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Stefanos Tsitsipas


Wimbledon – Novak Djokovic

Not too much unlike the case of Nadal in Paris, there is no reason to pick against Djokovic at the All-England Club. This situation, however, has more to do with the quality of opposition being so unspectacular on grass. Whereas there are tons of dangerous clay-courters, now that Roger Federer is retired and Andy Murray is past his prime there really isn’t anyone other than Djokovic who is great on the green stuff. Matteo Berrettini, Denis Shapovalov, and Taylor Fritz can be dangerous, but nobody in that group strikes any fear into Djokovic.

Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Taylor Fritz


U.S. Open – Carlos Alcaraz

Following an unexpected U.S. Open triumph and even more surprising run all the way to No. 1 in the world, it would be understandable if Alcaraz experiences a bit of a letdown at the start of 2023. No matter; that won’t be a factor by the time the year’s fourth and final major gets underway. Alcaraz should be primed and ready to defend his title. At just 19 years old, the Spaniard is only getting better and better. In fact, there is a better chance of him winning multiple slams this season than there is of him winning zero.

Runner-up (if on opposite side) – Felix Auger-Aliassime


2014 was the last time we had four different men’s singles Grand Slam champions (three different players won the three slams in 2020, but Wimbledon was cancelled). Djokovic could certainly win multiple in 2023 and behind him both Nadal and Alcaraz have an outside chance, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a full quartet of winners. Djokovic and Nadal are 35 and 36, respectively, and other-gen breakthroughs have already begun (Dominic Thiem in 2020, Medvedev in 2021, Alcaraz in 2022). Another interesting season with plenty of parity could be in the cards.

819
Who will win the Australian Open?

138
Who will finish the year No. 1?

94 Comments on 2023 men’s singles Grand Slam predictions

    • No Amy Stef can be if he wins one more match at united cup…

      Djkko is 4 so only can play sf

      Sad part is Taylor jumps to 8 n tiafoe 16 n that means rafa can draw them in qf n 4th round

      Amy what is ur honest prediction of rafa for ao..n this year…u see him winning any ?

      • Stef can’t win another match because Greece are out!
        I do believe and feel that Rafa will win at least one more slam sanju. But I doubt very much it will be AO given he just lost to Norrie and demon and there are many more dangerous players than those 2. Novak is playing very well and is the massive fave here. It’s good that Rafa can’t play him until the semis. Could be horrible if they do meet remembering 2019. I would certainly not be looking forward to watching them play here.
        Still no sign of Carlos. 😠😠Y is no one talking about where he is?!

        • I was going to post my WTA bracket picks for Hobart and Adelaide 2
          But I can’t get on the WTA page!

          Ricky, did you close down the WTA page, and if so, why?

          • I’ve picked Garcia and Buzz but I literally have no idea!
            Same with the men’s for current tournaments and AO., so early in the season to see who is on form.
            Shame about Carlos and Naomi though.

          • I’ve probably picked between Garcia, Damsonova and Bouzkova(buzz?)but going by the tournament’s we just had , need a crystal ball…

          • Ricky hasn’t closed the WTA page any more than he has closed the non tennis forum or the Rafa page. The site simply isn’t working as it should so most pages won’t open.

          • amy,

            I cannot get on the non-tennis forum. If the problem dates back to when those trolls were posting and the site crashed, then it should be fixed. Otherwise, we can’t talk about other things bedsides tennis.

          • Nny, I have a proposal that we use a thread which no one is commenting on to talk about non tennis matters. Many threads have no or virtually no comments so let’s just use one.
            We could turn another into the Rafa page as well.
            Because you can’t open any of the social pages or player pages and it looks like the problem can’t be able fixed.
            If anyone here wants to give an opinion please do.

  1. Djoko the ” massive ” favourite? Thats too strong a word. It kind of takes the pressure off everyone else who could beat him. As a fan, I would never go above cautious optimism.

          • What are the bookies saying?

            I thought Novak will clean the floor with Korda but that was 3 hr 10 min duel n Novak now tied rafa with 92 titles…

            Sad to say this but it’s so easier being a Novak or Roger fan..I am not denigrating rafa but he has never given his fans consistent happiness ,its always up n down due to injuries .Roger gave his fans consistent happiness from 04 to 07 , Novak from 2011 is largely consistent except 2022 first half n the 2 year lull from 16 mid to 18 mid…on the other hand apart from 08,10,13 I don’t think there has been a single rafa season that is not filled with dramas ,injury scares , breaks n ups n downs

          • The bookies give him overwhelming, not to say “massive”😉😉😀 ,odds to win. Apart from Novak, Med is the only player with decent odds. I am somewhat sceptical about the bookies and some pundits e.g. Ricky constantly having Med as a fave or runner up. Med has been wildly inconsistent and not strong mentally since the final last year. I don’t think he will win and he could lose early.
            Yes I just saw Korda almost beat Novak but doing that in BO3 is very different from BO5 in a slam. And the point is that Novak still won. What could derail Novak is a tough draw and getting tired now he is getting on for 36. I still think he will win.
            Sanju we can’t blame Rafa for getting injured. His slam count is all the more remarkable given his endless injuries. I still think he has more slams in him.
            However it is true that it’s easier to be a Novak or Fed fan.

    • amy,

      I think that’s a great idea. I saw a thread you said could be used as a non-tennis one. I would go there to talk about other things besides tennis.

  2. Djoko is being made an even bigger favourite on the back of all the fuss last year. As for whether its easier to be a fan of Djokovic or Federer than Nadal, maybe , but not on this forum 😉😉😜

  3. I’m doubtful Medvedev will win unless Djokovic loses on route because Medvedev has stopped being himself. All his interviews sound like he’s trying to emulate Nadal.

    When he stops trying to be them and stops saying what he thinks people want to hear and starts speaking from his heart, that’s when he’ll start winning majors again.

  4. I just saw footage of Novak ordering his brother to leave the box and arena after he lost the first set against Korda. He was practically shaking with anger.
    At the end of last year I saw him on multiple occasions shout at and berate his box especially Goran and his physio who has now left the team. As soon as he misses shots and goes down in the score he gets in a rage and attacks his box. It’s really getting out of control.
    My own view is that Novak has a real dark side which he actually draws on to help him with this aggression and anger.
    Everyone has some kind of dark side but it’s inconceivable to even imagine Rafa or Fed behaving like this.
    It is my view that this aggression actually fuels him and helps him.

    • amy,

      Novak’s rages are unnerving to me. They may help him in tennis matches but it is not pleasant to watch. There are other ways to motivate oneself. Some people won’t stay with him if this abuse is a regular thing.

      • It works for him because it gets his opponent to focus more on him. The whole reason that Djokovic is losing is because his opponent is in a zone and playing their game, not his game.

        You have to remember that Djokovic has been playing to win since he was born, so every facet of his identity and game is part of a formula to win. Even his name is designed to win Novak means “New” and Djok is derived from giocare which means”play” and “Vic” means “Victory” or “Win”. New play to win.

        To beat Djokovic you have to beat someone that was born to win and in most cases you have to beat him multiple times because he knows how to swing the probabilities in his favour whether it’s to do with momentum or focus.

        As an opponent, I’d even be fearful of Djokovic applauding my shot. Even if there’s nothing intentionally sinister behind it, I’d be worried that it’s part of his subconscious formula to win.

        To beat Djokovic you have to remove every advantage he possesses which means you’ll have to focus on the ball and your game for the duration of the match similar to Wawrinka at RG and Medvedev at the US Open.

        • I actually interpret Novak as “I know” and when combined with his surname translates to “I know, I play and win”. See, how your name can shape your destiny.

  5. I don’t know what to say except that his tirades are shameful. But I did not watch any live tennis, only the highlights of some matches.

    What happened to Carlos Alcaraz? Will he not play AO?

      • Hi, amy!
        It’s Ricky! He could fix it if he wanted to. This blog is not what it used to be without the player page access, non-tennis forum, and my favorite, the WTA page.

        How do you think we could set up pages ourselves? Take a page that hardly gets any comments and just call it Rafa’s page, WTA, non-tennis, or whatever is needed. I am not sure how that would work. We have it all here; if Ricky would allow that drop-down selection, the problem solved.

        • Elizabeth, why would Ricky deliberately close non tennis forum, the wta page and the Rafa page?!
          I just tried to open non tennis forum and it opened! But it opened at the beginning in 2013 and one can’t scroll through thousands of comments to try and comment.
          The Rafa page still won’t open but I opened a page called Czech mates with nothing on it. Maybe opened because of that so The site can handle the request.The wta page still won’t open.
          I really think all this is because of the site malfunctioning.

          • Okay, the website is malfunctioning, or Ricky wanted to check for content and retire some pages.

            But I hope the WTA page is back for AO.

      • I knew Carlos was injured, but I don’t remember when he tore his hamstring, and I know hamstring injuries can take a long time. Did Luka Pouille have a similar injury? He sure is taking a long time to come back.

    • Apologies for putting this here but there seem to be problems elsewhere, but Amy/other UK fans, have you seen “Mystery Road-Origin” now on BBC4. The lead actor looks so like Rafa, it’s uncannny!

      • Happy New year margot!!
        No I haven’t seen it. Will give it a looksy on iplayer.
        So are you and Elizabeth giving a thumbs down to my wonderful idea of taking over a thread or 2 with no comments and turning then into non tennis forum and wta?!! Nny was definitely for the idea..
        It’s very frustrating not being able to discuss stuff…

        • Happy New year to you too m’dear, those with those bloody Tories still in power, unlikely to be.
          Yes, It’s a good idea, we need a non tennis forum.

  6. Who cares Amy how Novak behaves , thats for his wife to bother..whatever it is ,it is helping him to win slams n titles…

    I’ve anyway discounted rafa out from AO…there is very miniscule chance he wins this unless novak beats himself and others like medvedev, fritz,tiafoe all disappear…Moya not being therefore makes no difference.i just want rafa to get 24 n leave for good..I’m tired of his ups n downs n lack of consistency since last 15 years as a fan,it’s been stressful.

    • @Sanju,

      If you can’t take the stress, just stop watching tennis! Or any other sport. You win some and you lose some. That’s what it is. I don’t think anyone like Roger in his heyday is going to come along any time soon. Won almost everything and was well behaved and charming to boot. I couldn’t stand him, lol! He killed the thing I follow tennis for: the competition!

  7. Hi everyone, hope you all will have or already have a happy and good new year!

    As for Rafa, not a good start to the new year where tennis is concerned, it’s again his serve which is the main problem. I saw a pic of him carrying his baby boy, the baby looked so cute in the pic, with big eyes and chubby cheeks! He’s a happy father now!

    I don’t have high hopes for him to retain his AO title, just wish that he can compete well without injury scares or real concerns. I hope for a good year for him, and yes if he can get to his 24th slam this year, that will be fantastic! Hopefully he can win some masters too, esp those that he hasn’t won before, and the WTF.

    I mentioned before, that after he had won his 20th slam, I would be calm even if he couldn’t win any more slam, so his 21st and 22nd were bonuses to me.

    I wish Rafa all the best in his remaining tennis career, and all the best to him and his family!

    Oh and all the best to all the best to all of us here too!

    • Great new sanju!!😀😀
      Ps I have been feeling very downbeat about Rafa’s chances but even before seeing your post I am feeling much more optimistic.
      Dunno why!!!😀

  8. Have just seen pics of Rafa with Carlos!😀
    It’s very unusual for him to have his whole family and Mery at AO. Last year only his father was there and that’s mostly the norm.

    • I read that Rafa didn’t want to be away from their baby for a whole month. Mery’s been coming along most years since 2017. But not if there’s covid restrictions in place.

      • Ramara,
        I didn’t know Rafa’s wife had a baby, a baby boy named Rafa.

        The pictures I googled are so cute a sweet. It makes me very happy for them!

  9. Sigh. I thought people said the rankings were fixed for AO?
    If Ruud wins Auckland he overtakes Rafa.
    But the draw is Thursday isn’t it so doesn’t matter if he has more points as they don’t use live rankings…

    • Nny, I just tried 5 times to open your post on non tennis forum and it kept saying page not found.😠😢
      Ricky is this fixable please??

          • Margot, I am quite fed up!! I left posts for you and nny also left posts we can’t read.
            Suggest we go back to my original suggestion and just grab a thread with no comments…

          • It’s a shame we don’t have a WTA page, and like the non-tennis page, the WTA page also comes up with a blank page.

            WTA IS TENNIS, and it’s blooming great! WTA is great.
            Please let us have a WTA page!

            No one picked the right winner for freaking Hobart this week, but Welshwitch deserves an ovation for winning Adelaide! I love seeing the TG people in the bracket group. Everyone is welcome.

            WTA May be obscure and irrelevant for the majority who read this blog but thank god there are enough people interested in having a WTA page.

            jalep_wildguess group has survived over the years, Serena or no Serena! 😊👍

          • amy,

            I say we go with your original idea. Let’s try to grab a thread with no comments. Maybe Elizabeth can do the same thing for a WTA thread.

  10. So the draw is tomorrow..

    Hope to see both Novak n Medvedev on other side but don’t be surprised if rafa draws med in qtrs n Novak in semis..n tiafoe 4th round 🙂

    Did u all read tiley has warned spectators that they will be ejected if they boo Novak too much…like seriously ? Fans should be free to express themselves..what kind of diktat is this

  11. Id have said booing any player was unacceptable unless their behaviour was really bad on court. Not because they dont want to get vaccinated , or any other controversial thing thats not related to breaking any rules associated with their participation in the tournament. If they show up to play and go by the rules , its too bad if you feel like booing them

    • How do we know what they booing for..how we so sure that the booing is for vaccination only ..

      Unless they are unruly n abusive ,fans should be free to express…booing is common in tennis…

  12. Horrible horrible deaw for rafa

    Draper first round , Brandon next gen finals champ second, tiafoe fourth, med qf, Tsitsi semi

    It’s as bad as it can get.

    Djkko got a cakewalk draw…

    This draw seems specially designed to get Novak his 10th

        • Draper beat FAA in straights at the USO. The thing I was wanting most from the draw is some easy early rounds for Rafa so he could play himself into form.
          Nakashima has beaten top players as well.
          If he can’t serve well he is unlikely to get through the first 2 rounds!😪

  13. Ruud again lucked out with an easy quarter. His luck in slam draws is extraordinary.
    Even Novak fans are saying Rafa has a horrible draw and several commentators think he will lose to Draper. All the pressure will be on Rafa in the first round with the long list of losses since wimby.

  14. I don’t know how he can get such a tough one ..I mean it’s live right…no behind the scenes..this looks like it was done by someone who hates him..it’s that bad…

    • It’s pretty terrible sanju. Draper just beat KK to get to the semis in Adelaide so he is match tough. He is z#38 in the live rankings just outside the seeds and may well end up higher. Last year some commies were predicting him to get up to top 15 this year.
      And Nakashima is also in form and dangerous.
      When you compare it with other quarters ie Ruud’s who continually gets very soft draws it’s laughable.
      It was the first 3 rounds I was most worried about. If he could get through those he had a chance…

  15. There are some other tough first rounds ie Rublev against Thiem. Thiem could win that.
    Murray Berretini is popcorn but Murray isn’t the #1 seed so it’s completely different.
    Only good thing is Rafa avoided NK.
    There are ? about Novak’s hamstring. Right now the hamstring is the factor most likely to derail him not the opposition.

    • Meh. Djoker felt (maybe) a twinge and pulled the plug. Most likely he just wasn’t in the mood to play that day. He’ll be in fine shape come the first round. You’ll see. He will have to get used to being over the hill.

    • He pulled that during med match in adelaide still beat him in straights plus won a 3 hr 15 min marathon vs Korda…he will be fine …didn’t he win ao 21 with ab tear…what is a hamstring pull in comparison

  16. If Rafa does get through Draper and Nakashima, which will be very difficult given his run of losses and lack of confidence then he will play himself into form and be much much stronger mentally.
    If he can get through those matches he could go a long way.

  17. Have just had some more positive thoughts ie players playing in tourneys just before a slam starts often crash and burn. Quick turnaround and fatigue and so on.
    Could happen to Draper. I assume Rafa will play earlydoors as he is the defending champion? Doesn’t the defending champion play on the first day…

  18. Good God I don’t believe it! Or rather I do! Tiggy has picked a Rafole final with Novak to win!
    And pigs 🐖🐖🐖🐖 might fly!
    🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖🐖
    Obviously I agree with Novak winning it but Rafa getting to the final.with this draw? He picked Norrie for the semis which doesn’t seem wildly plausible either.
    Oink! oink!!

  19. Did anyone fill out a WTA bracket pick Iga Swiatek to win AO?

    She lost to Pegula in the United Cup, but I don’t count that. I have Iga making the final but stopped short of choosing her to win AO.

    I don’t have my ATP bracket filled out yet, but I see Rafa making the final.

    • Elizabeth…keen to hear ur picks qf onwards ..do post it please

      A Rafaole final here will have just one winner unless a 2017 type shocker is in store..everyone was sure rafa would win that as fed had not beaten rafa in a slam since 10 years before 2007,we know what happened..

      However rafa navigating through such tough draw is not looking feasible…I mean forget first 3 rounds but tiafoe, med, tsitsi back to back..nah..each of them can go 5

  20. Nadal to make the final for sure. Everything you read here about him having a tough draw and Nole an easy one is the usual Slam smokescreen.

    Not sure about the WTA though Elizabeth. I think Iga is the favourite but Im watching the warm up tournaments now for some clues.

    • No Al this is not a smokescreen! Ricky just posted a preview saying Rafa may well lose to Draper! Rafa has lost 6 of his last 7 matches including to players like de minaur and Norrie who never get near him and aren’t big servers.
      He is unquestionably vulnerable.
      Many commentators are saying that Rafa may lose to Draper. Many don’t think he will make the quarters.

  21. Rafa getting past tiafoe ,med,tsitsi is unthinkable as each could be a 5 setter…plus he has never ever reached back to back finals at AO…infact historically every final appearance ends in a qf exit the subsequent year…check 10,15,18,20..each qf exit and he was the finalist or title holder the previous year..

    If rafa does make the final with Nole..I don’t think anyone will pick rafa…a 17 type miracle needs to happen where no one picked fed as he had not beaten rafa in slam for 10 long years and he won causing a huge surprise .

  22. Happy new year Tenngrand-ers!

    It’s a shame Alcaraz had to pull out but nonetheless we have a juicy field. Good draw for Novak and a horrible one for Rafa.

    On a separate note, I am doing AO player profile videos in collaboration with a Youtube channel and rules permitting, I’ll share the links when they are uploaded.

    It’s kind of my new year resolution to get more involved and do some fun stuff around tennis. Will definitely try to post here more often too and enjoy the conversations with the amazing community here.

    • The positive thing Amy is if he does lose to draper , it can’t get any worse ..he loses 2000 points ,he drops to maybe 8 in rankings ,the only way from there is UP

      • Yes I tend to agree sanju. Maybe like Alcaraz he will play other tourneys in Feb.
        He should play on clay to get his confidence back! Play small tourneys and work his way back into form.
        Also I honestly think he needs to spend time playing tennis away from home without Mery and his son in tow. They both always said that she would not be accompanying him all the time because it would harm their relationship because Rafa would be too distracted from tennis. And now that is multiplied with a child and all his family.

  23. There is an article by Clarey saying Rafa was missing basic shots against Hurkacz in practice and constantly giving worried looks at Moya. Woodbridge also saying he looks far away as when he lost to Tiafoe.
    Everyone thinks he could go out early.
    What worries me most is Rafa’s mental.state. There was footage of his match against de Minaur with Rafa saying to Marc why am I so lacking in confidence? Which recalls his comments to Moya at the USO about how anxious he was.
    I am very worried that the litany of injuries has set off Rafa’s anxiety again. If it has then he is going home early.

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