Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Cerundolo, Auger-Alassime vs. Cressy

Rafael Nadal will begin his bid for a third Wimbledon title when he goes up against Francisco Cerundolo during third-round action on Tuesday. In the same section of the draw, Felix Auger-Aliassime could have a tough opener on his hands with Maxime Cressy.

Francisco Cerundolo vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

The only thing that has held Nadal back in 2022 is injury and that is certainly the only way his Wimbledon first-round match could be competitive. When healthy, the 36-year-old Spaniard has been the dominant player on tour this season. He is halfway to the calendar-year Grand Slam following triumphs at the Australian Open and French Open and is 30-3 overall–also with titles at a Melbourne 250 and Acapulco. Nadal is seeking his third Wimbledon winner’s trophy and first since 2013.

Up first for the No. 2 seed on Tuesday is Cerundolo, who is making his main-draw debut at the All-England Club. The 41st-ranked Argentine is not entirely hopeless on grass (3-3 lifetime) and he advanced one round at Queen’s Club before losing to British wild card Ryan Peniston. Cerundolo then dropped his Eastbourne opener to Tommy Paul via a 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 decision. The 23-year-old has proven to be capable of finding success on surfaces other than clay, but nothing suggests he can seriously test Nadal on grass at major.

Pick: Nadal in 3

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How many games will Cerundolo win?

(6) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Maxime Cressy

Arguably the marquee matchup of the entire first round features Auger-Alassime and Cressy, who will also be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers. Auger-Aliassime is deservedly among the title favorites given his quarterfinal run last summer, his overall success at Grand Slams, and his form in 2022. The eighth-ranked Canadian is 30-15 with his first-ever ATP title in Rotterdam, a quarterfinal performance at Melbourne Park, and a fourth-round showing at Roland Garros (lost to Nadal in five sets).

This should be a classic grass-court contest worthy of a second-week showdown between two guys who love the lawn. Cressy serves and volleys more than anyone else on tour and that tactic just carried him to the Eastbourne final, which he lost to Taylor Fritz in a third-set tiebreaker. It would not be shocking if the 45th-ranked American pulls off an upset, but Auger-Aliassime’s experience of Grand Slam success should help him get what could be a very successful fortnight underway.

Pick: Auger-Aliassime in 4

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WWW: Auger-Aliassime vs. Cressy?

79 Comments on Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Cerundolo, Auger-Alassime vs. Cressy

  1. It doesn’t matter but Rafa won his second and last Wimbledon championship in 2010. In 2013 he lost in first round, one of his few losses that great year.

  2. Rafa seems a bit shaky today but the conditions r not great, a bit windy! Lost break he had early on, arrrggghhh!!

    I’m finding that I’m having trouble posting my comments, sigh

    • Yes he is nervous. Annoying when he gave the break back!
      He seems to be waiting for Cerundolo to make mistakes…
      His fh hasn’t been working which is a sign he is nervous..

  3. Count yourselves lucky if you don’t have to listen to Johb Inverdale on the BBC. I have to mute rather than curse at his commentary all through the match.

  4. I am watching live streaming and it really excruciating hearing these commies. I’m not listening though bcoz that means I really care about what they have to say. Their bias against Rafa is not even funny!!

  5. JMac has become really impossible. He has said negative things about Rafa.

    I have to mute the sound at times because of him.

  6. Who’s the best/most reasonable commentator? Tim has improved, JMAC has disimproved. Paul Anacone would be great.
    Oh, slip – looks OK.

    • I like Paul Annacone. Very knowledgeable and doesn’t let his bias show. JMac has become an embarrassment. Jim Courier on the tennis channel is pretty good.

      My heart stopped when Rafa slipped and fell in the grass. But he seems to be okay.

      Querrey lost today. Rafa’s draw is opening up. I don’t think players dropping out becatse of Covid was expected.

    • Courier was decent for ITV.
      Santoro was really good for ITV.
      The women like Sam Smith and Keothovang are very respectful and generally much better.
      Invertwerp is awful.

  7. Yes, definitely more relaxed. Can’t really comment on his level yet. 1st match on grass in 3 years. Looking like repeat of Set 1 at the moment.

  8. Just a crap passage of play from Rafa and he loses his serve again.
    He seems nervous again..
    About to lose the third set..

  9. Rafa hit 3 winners and 10 ues that set.
    He was playing fine until he lost serve after breaking then the nervy play returned..

    • I can’t watch much more of this either!
      I can’t stand it when Rafa’s nerves take over.
      Cerundolo is really starting to get on my nerves.
      Rafa could easily win this match if he could just relax.

    • Relief here too, I chickened out for a while, got back for the final game.
      Will look forward to reading all your, & others, technical comments later. Or maybe there’ll be nothing to say on this one, we’ll allow this one-off. Onwards and upwards.

      • My recording stopped before the end of the match. So I will have to watch the replay on the tennis channel later.

        Maybe this will help Rafa get more comfortable on the grass. His draw has opened up now. As I thought it could, although no one could have predicted players having to withdraw with Covid.

        I was worried that the fall might have hurt Rafa’s foot. He seemed to lose the plot in the third set. Rafa seems to thrive on these kinds of matches. I hope it gives him good feelings and confidence moving forward. He has a real opportunity now.

  10. Yeah, I did ask that Rafa not stress me out!! Sigh!!

    But I guess that’s the kind of match Rafa needs!

    One match at a time, Vamos!!

  11. he changed his racket and then everything started going in? Was a really weird middle portion of the match from Rafa. Anyhow, onto Round 2. Looks like Felix in trouble too.

    • Felix is out!! Meanwhile Serena can’t seem to keep any of her balls in, sigh!! Rust can really look ugly!!!

      There is something about grass that many players can’t seem to manage.

  12. It was said to be very windy today. Maybe that bothered Rafa? I only watched the last bit of set 4. Wayyy too nervous to watch it all. May wait until tomorrow and watch the tennis channel replay. I’ll take any commie except Jimmy Arias over JMac. Arias makes me crazy by calling the match he *wants* the players to play, not the one that’s actually on the court. Really, one of the big commentator problems is they think they’re coaches.

    Cerundolo is a pretty decent clay courter and will maybe be good on grass eventually. Young, little experience, right?

  13. Great to read all your comments. Interesting about the racket, didn’t see that. Is it for looser tension or what? Yes, the bottom half of the draw had really levelled out very unexpectedly.
    On another note, what an absolute joy to listen to Martina and Jo calling the Serena match, they’re both so insightful.

  14. First match in 3 years on grass , fresh grass , unknown opponent never played him .it’s ok ..cut him sum slack .

    It’s better to play known players than unknown in Wimbledon first week. He has played berkanis before ,so that’s good

    Rafa will move on match by match and find his groove.

    If Novak who won the last 2 times he played here struggled yest ,it’s ok for rafa to struggle

    • Sanju,

      I agree with you! First grass match in 3 years and it’s natural to feel a bit out of sorts. I should have realized that he has never played this guy, too. I am relieved that the fall did not hurt his foot.

      I thought overall Rafa’s movement was very good. He has to be feeling better after the procedure.

      I agree about cutting him some slack. He will do it match by match. I heard that Felix lost to Cressy. So that means Querrey, Cilic, Felix and Berrettini are all gone from Rafa’s draw!

      Yes indeed, draws do open up!
      😉

  15. Just watched the end of the Felix match and he is out.
    Cressy was playing very well and will be very hard to beat.
    Serving endless winners. Felix didn’t do much wrong.
    When you watch matches like that where both players bomb down countless unreturnable serves you wonder how Rafa can win with his dodgy serve.
    But later in the tourney he will play much better.
    Berankis next!

    • Relax Amy ..3 more matches till he faces cressy if he gets there. Lot of time to clean up..

      Felix ,cilic ,berretini ,querrey all out. Cilic n berretini to covid

      Can a draw open up so much in one day ..every player we worried about is out today ..it’s like too much of a gift

      • It’s ok sanju! I am quite relaxed as I know Rafa will improve.
        Rafa hasn’t played on grass for 3 years and was clearly nervous. Getting through today should give him confidence.

      • That’s why it helps not to fret too much when the draw comes out. Rafa deserves a break with the draws he has been getting.

        This is a real opportunity for him. As for Cressy, he still has to get there to meet Rafa. Rafa will get better in every match and should be ready if it happens.

  16. Btw if Alcaraz reaches the qtrs ,mind you he will give Novak a very very hard time .5 written all over it. Supposedly the grass is really slow this year and lot of rallies

  17. Super interesting press conference from Rafa re COVID protocols. Especially what happened in French Open. he really needed to be at his diplomatic best. Apparently a lot happened at the French that we dont know about.

    • atul1985, I watched Rafa’s presser, and he confirmed my suspicion that some players with symptoms prefer not to get tested because they want to continue playing. But it’s news to me that in London even those who test positive are allowed to continue! I don’t know how sick Berettini felt, but I appreciate that the safety of others was more important for him than his ambition. In Germany this would not be possible, because those who test positive, still have to isolate themselves for 5 days. But I also understand that this rule might reduce the willingness to get tested in the first place. A lot of people with mild symptoms prefer to ignore the symptoms and simply sit it out without knowing if they have covid or not.

  18. These Covid protocols r really wild in London! O mean ppl r still dying from this thing! How could they leave testing at the discretion of players?! How on earth will this end well?

    • Monalisa, I agree! I don’t understand these rules. But while infected people still have to isolate themselves for 5 days in Germany, tests are also not mandatory anymore. Therefore the organizers of events can decide for themselves if they want to demand tests or not.
      But there is another huge problem: many infected persons who decide to test themselves because they have symptoms, get a negative result, and they need to test themselves more often or even need to have a PCR-test in order to find out that they are infected after all. The available rapid tests don’t seem to respond well to the new virus variations. And especially the virus load of vaccined persons can be so low that the tests often don’t respond during the early days.
      I have the feeling that right now most countries decided to ride this out, because at the moment most infected people don’t get seriously ill.

      • I should add that infected athlets can jeopardize not only the health of the persons they have contact with, but also their own health if they continue to compete. Playing best-of-five matches which may last for a couple of hours is not a good idea.

  19. Littlefoot, it’s just crazy. I understand they trying to ride it out but when it comes to a tournament it’s best to protect players and organizers. What would be of the tourney if everyone gets sick? And then what happens after? They have to go home to their families and infect them?! Rafa”s wife is pregnant, I doubt she can afford to be exposed!

  20. Rafa Dug Deep in the fourth set. Cerundolo was playing like a seasoned proffessional on grass. His BH was off the charts.

    Rafa’s draw is looking more let’s say “Navigatable” now. Someone please take care of certain serb now please.

    Vamos Rafa

    • Lol, can’t c anyone on that side troubling Nole! But then again this is tennis. This half of the draw is so dull though but there r a few interesting matches in bottom half, Murray vs Isner for one! Hope Alcaraz and Murray clash!!

  21. One match at a time ..5 matches more to go for that. But i hope it’s a rafaole final with rafa winning ..it will be historic ..

    • Sanju,

      You sound positively zen these days! Yes, one match at a time! Rafa will get better with each match.

      Does this mean that you will watch Rafa’s matches? Your calm and confidence is rubbing off on me!
      😉

      • He won 2 nny. We have every reason to be relaxed. I don’t watch his matches still but we have a lot to be grateful for after 2 slam wins this year which I am sure no one expected after what happened last year. I am expecting rafa to play with ease with every round as the pressure is off him now .

        I don’t know if he will win wimby but I am hopeful. I told since years that I had a feeling he will get 22 which he has ,will he add more am not sure but the way things are unfolding this year ,I am keeping hopes that this is the huge redemption year to get lot of good and unexpected things and unfinished businesses. I for sure want him to meet Novak in the final and beat him and shut up the mouths of many for once who say he can beat Novak only on clay.

        • Sanju,

          I agree with you. After winning the first two slams we should be relaxed. It’s all gravy from here. RAF has had so many obstacles in the first teo slams, yet he persevered and triumphed. It’s like nothing can stop him.

          He found a way to play at Wimbledon. I watched the last few games of his match on the replay last night. I was too nervous to watch it live. The way he just let out a roar after match point, was amazing to see. It means that much to him.He looked so happy after the match, celebrating with the crowd. I loved it!

          He wanted to play at Wimbledon. They found a way for him to do it. You did say he would get 22. I just sense a good feeling from you right now. Rafa just has to get into good form on the grass. His draw has opened up and he has a real opportunity.

          I love that you want him to face Novak in the final and beat him! You have faith in Rafa! I would love to see it happen, especially after Novak said he wants revenge at Wimbledon for the loss to Rafa at RG. I would be happy to see it.

          Vamos Rafa!

          • What I want most is redemption for what happened in 2018 wimby with the roofgate…that payback is pending still.

            2012 ao close match was settled at rg 13 sf close match

            Ao 19 crushing loss was settled at rg 20 with handing of a crushing loss.

            Rg 21 sf loss was settled at rg22 in 4 sets

            What remains is just wimby 18 settlement and the perfect way to do it would be the final this time in a 5 setter

          • Believe me, I would love to see retribution for that disgraceful 2018 Wimby! That one has bothered me ever since. Payback here would be great!

            I like how you have it broken out like that. Okay, settlement time is coming!

  22. Wow! Cressy! Thought he’d be a threat at Wimbledon, and so he was. Another match you didn’t know who would win till the very last ball was struck. Brilliant.

  23. I haven’t seen much of Cressy, but many did think he would be tough for Felix. They obviously knew more than I did. There are so many matches in the early rounds and we don’t get to see them. But that was one I would have liked to see.

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