Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mannarino, Zverev vs. Shapovalov

Alexander Zverev
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Adrian Mannarino has crashed the party in the second quarter of the Australian Open draw and he will go up against Rafael Nadal during fourth-round action on Sunday. Alexander Zverev and Denis Shapovalov are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

Adrian Mannarino vs. (6) Rafael Nadal


Nadal probably expected to see a big hitter like Hubert Hurkacz or Aslan Karatsev on the other side of the net in his fourth-round match at the Australian Open. Instead, Mannarino took out both of those guys to book his surprising spot alongside Nadal on Sunday. After outlasting James Duckworth in five sets, Mannarino destroyed Hurkacz 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 and then beat Karatsev 7-6(4), 6-7(4), 7-5, 6-4 in a match that lasted four hours and 38 minutes and eded after 2:30 in the morning.

Asking the 33-year-old Frenchman to recover from that struggle and be competitive with Nadal two days later is ambitious. He is 0-13 lifetime against the Big 3, including 0-2 against Nadal (0-4 in total sets). The sixth-ranked Spaniard is off to a 6-0 start this season, with a title at the Melbourne 250 followed by Aussie Open wins over Marcos Giron, Yannick Hanfmann, and Karen Khachanov. All signs point to a complete beatdown on Sunday.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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How many games will Mannarino win?


(3) Alexander Zverev vs. (14) Denis Shapovalov

Zverev and Shapovalov will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers (not including a Laver Cup contest) when they meet again on Sunday. Each of their last two encounters have come in Australia; Shapovalov cruised 6-2, 6-2 at the 2020 ATP Cup before Zverev prevailed 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(4) at the same team competition in 2021. That gave the German a 3-2 advantage in the head-to-head series, although Shapovalov has won two of the last three dating back to the fall of 2019.

A serious contender for his first Grand Slam title, Zverev’s fortnight is off to an incredibly routine start. The world No. 3 has advanced with straight-set defeats of Daniel Altmaier, John Millman, and Radu Albot. Shapovalov needed five sets against Soonwoo Kwon in between four-set victories over Laslo Djere and Reilly Opelka. Zverev has been a force at the hard-court majors in recent years (only Novak Djokovic beat him in Melbourne and New York last season) and his path to the second week was much easier than the Canadian’s, so he has every reason to win this one.

Pick: Zverev in 4

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WWW: Zverev vs. Shapovalov?

106 Comments on Australian Open R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Mannarino, Zverev vs. Shapovalov

  1. Amy. Confident abt tomm ?

    Btw have you checked on twitter the amount of negative vibes djoko fans are sending to Rafa. They are literally wishing n praying he loses. So much negativity , how do they live with ? As if Rafa was resp for all his ruckus

    • I never take any match for granted sanju! But this match really is on Rafa’s racket. The only way he can lose is if he plays very poorly. Doesn’t Mannarino have a one handed backhand? That won’t help him especially as it’s a day match when the ball will leap up on him.
      Nole Farm have been acting really deranged suggesting first that Rafa should be deported then Rublev. Who knows who they will attack next. They are in a state of morbid hysteria atm!😀
      If Rafa loses they will all turn up here insulting everyone..

      • amy,

        On VB there was a lot of talk about Novak fans going after Rafa. Some of them are the worst of the worst. They are on tennis-x and sometimes they come here to go after Rafa fans. They are despicable and should be ignored at all costs.

        They just cannot handle their guy not being there. I don’t think he will be able to play at RG unless he gets vaccinated. I remember his bus fans came here last year after a Rafa lost to him at RG. They really are a sorry lot!

    • I believe “butt-hurt” is the clinical term. I’m sure there are plenty of rational Djoker fans (or possibly ex-fans) at this point who don’t go on twitter to try to hurt someone else in retaliation. Just stop reading their nonsense. Rafa has done nothing to cause Djoker’s woes. If he had he’d apologize. If it was his decision Djoker would be vaxxed and playing. Roger would be there too. Why? Because tennis is better when the Big Three are in it. Rafa’s in it first and foremost to *compete*. He’s almost as proud of excellent losses as he is of wins. In fact he’s a lot more proud of those than he is of the beat downs. He’s a pro, through and through.

      • Ramara, I have only seen today that you answered my post from a few days ago. Thanks, and I wish you and your family all the best and good health 😀

  2. Cilic has grand slam pedigree just like Wawrinka. Never underestimate that quality against players that have never been there.

  3. Rafa doesn’t like playing big hitters any more than anyone else but he can more than hold his own against them. He is 12:1 vs Karlovic and Isner and the one time Isner beat him was at the Laver Cup.

    Djokovic has a negative h2h against Karlovic and 10:2 against Isner but people tend to think that Djokovic loves playing big hitters.

    • Chance of shapo beating z in this form is less than 20 VR unless he comes out really inspired n cuts on the going for too much shots

      • Although I am German, I never liked Zverev very much, and it doesn’t help that the German media are trying to force feed him to the German tennis fans for quite a while now! But I really don’t think that Shapo will win. Zverev is too good by now and Shapo is unreliable. If Rafa wants to have a shot at the title, he will have to go through Zverev. And despite Rafa’s positive h2h, there is cause for concern because he is probably not be at his best level, yet, and it doesn’t help that Zverev is 11 years younger than Rafa. And while in the past Zverev had difficulties to perform well at the slams, he has been in the US Open final one and a half years ago, and he is an experienced slam contender by now. The speedy hardcourt should also work in his favour. Rafa, however, is an experienced old fox, and he has a higher tennis IQ than Zverev. Rafa’s mid-match tactical adjustments are legendary. We have to wait and see, how it will play out, if the two of them will meet in the QF.

  4. The h2h is not the problem. It is that Rafa has been off for six months. He said it himself, that he needs to get back to making shots automatically. You lose it when you don’t play for a while. He is doing very well considering how little he has played.

    His draw opened up and that was a break that he needed. He can handle Mannarino. The big problem is Zverev. Shapo may have beaten him, but now Zverev is playing great tennis. Shapo has has done very tough matches. Will he be ready for Zverev or will the long matches have taken a toll.

    • I disagree. I dont think Nadal has to play that much tennis because most of it is intuitive having played the game for so long. We saw it at Roland Garros 2020.

      I think most of it is mental with Nadal; he needs motivation because he’s been playing the game for so long and needs to be relatively fresh, mentally and physically, at 35.

      • Put simply, he has to be enjoying the game. If he’s enjoying the dynamics of the game, he’s capable of delivering his best.

  5. I just want to see this match. ESPN never broadcast Rafa’s match with Khachanov live. I recorded the last part of the Berrettini/Alcazar match. I couldn’t stay up any longer. Then I got up and watched the recording and at the end of that match, ESPN cut off coverage of tennis. So they never showed it.

    We don’t know how long Rafa will be playing. So I am not okay with skipping seeing even one of his matches. I had to settle for highlights. They focused on Berrettini and Alcazar. But they will be around for a long time. ESPN has so many other sports commitments. Tennis coverage is too often sacrificed.

    Since he is playing a day match, I will be able to see it. But there was no excuse for not showing Rafa’s third round match.

  6. I wish this forum would be as lively all the time but it livens up dramatically when a certain player is under discussion. With one or two exceptions his fans have been nowhere to be seen

    • Sometimes when Rafa is not under pressure his serves can be a bit wonky! Good thing is he finds serve when he Needs it. He will need it though in match with Shapo bcoz Zverev looks to be in real trouble now. That’s the problem when u have not been challenged in early rounds, u appear a lot better than ure game really is. On paper, Zverev had already won before stepping on court. That’s y I like Rafa’s philosophy, tennis is always on the day, and u must take it one point at a time, one game at a time, one set at a time and one match at a time!! It’s just that simple! No match is a given.

      Shapo is up a break, let’s c if he can preserve the break till the end.

  7. Wow! Woke up an hour ago and was pleasantly surprised to c how routine Rafa’s match seemed as he was up two sets!! Oh I was ecstatic!!! What’s even more surprising to me is that Shapo has won first set against Zverev!! But as I am writing this Rafa has served for the match! I am so excited for him although Nanarino seemed a bit subdued to me, but based on the comments it would seem that after first set he decided he could not really hang with this version of Rafa! Manarino does have a good game though and I wish him the best for the rest of the season. But more importantly, VAMOS Rafa!!!!! So happy he’s into second week and I wish him success in his next match, which by the way it looks just might be Shapo!!!! Not giving up on Zverev yet but now he must win in five! Tall order, maybe not but it helps Rafa a bit if he wins in 5! Didn’t quite c that coming but it doesn’t really surprise me, after all this is tennis! But here we go, Rafa is in the quarters!! Yeah!!!

    • Mona,

      That first set TB was insane! I had to stop watching at times. Rafa managed to do it after what seemed like forever. Mannarino seemed to suffer physically after that first set. He did call the trainer at one point and they gave him some pills. But he was really not able to play well after that and Rafa played much better.

      I am so proud of Rafa! He looked so happy after the match! To get to the quarterfinals after being out for six months is just great!

      Shapo is a game away.

  8. Rafa’s serve was not functional and made it harder for him! OTOH Manarino hitting hard and taking the ball early was difficult for Rafa to cope with, but he found his way to win that epic tie break. Both playing great in the first set. Manarino’s level dropped in the seconf snd third set as was expected…

    Rafa needs to raise his level for Shapo! Shapo is fast, serving well, will be high on confidence if he beats Zverev, so I expect a very tough match for Rafa..

    Vamos Rafa!

  9. Thrilled with Rafa’s win! Less than thrilled with ESPN’s weird scheduling. Well, I did manage to record Rafa’s first two sets and the last game.

    Whoa! Shapo is now 3-0 up in the 3rd! But Abuserev now holding to love… Well, I hope Dennis wins but I’d like to see him suffer a bit first! He can be a tough customer for Rafa. Oh, well, Rafa’s in the quarters!! As he always says you cannot expect an easy match in the quarters of a slam.

      • Hi, NNY, I hope you are well and healthy!
        Although I am German, I also really dislike Sascha Zverev, and like many other German tennis fans I have disliked him even before the abuse allegations were made by his ex-girlfriend! I have no idea if the accusations are true or not. But Zverev always behaved like an entitled brat who loves to hobnob with the rich and famous, and his private life is a mess. His current girlfriend is the German version of an it-girl, and she is mostly famous for being famous because she is from a family which produced a few second rate but very popular tv personalities. In Germany the surname “Thomalla” is better known and more popular than “Zverev”.
        While there is no doubt that Zverev is a very talented tennis player, some crucial ingredients for becoming a truly great player are still missing. He is currently one of the most successful players in best-of-three tournaments by now, but even after all those years he is still unable to handle the slams. He doesn’t seem to be able to overcome lackluster moments which are inevitable over two weeks in best-of-five matches.

  10. Yes, that’s what u hear the commies saying all the time, te players must take time away from Rafa in order to beat him. They may be right but u must be able to sustain in 5 sets and that’s a tall order. However, Shapo is young he can do it. He is really giving Zverev the business at the mo’!

  11. Zverev was serving at 5-3 for the second set. But Shapo broke back. Then it went to a TB. Shapo was the better player in the TB.

    Now Shapo is up 4-1. This unreal. But it’s why we watch. Sometimes you see an upset.

    Shapo has played Rafa tough in the past. He will be full of confidence if he can pull this off. You just never know. The in-form player, the sure thing, is notv always the winner.

  12. Sometimes these unexpected results happen. Over the long run, you’re better off sticking to what your data tells you.

    Zverev looked flat to me like he just expected to serve and win. He didnt look competitive.

    • True!!! No match is a given. Truth be told, I’m not sure if I prefer Shapo to Zverev in the quarters!! Denis can be a menace!!

      • Mona,

        You said it! The way Zverev played I think Rafa would have beaten him. Shapo played some brilliant tennis. He must be on a high right now.

        Rafa always says you cannot expect an easy opponent in the quarterfinals.

        A straight set victory for Shapo.

        Scoot Dimon picked Shapo in 4 sets. He was the only one to pick him to win.m

        • Yes NNY!!! I mean I think Zverev didn’t have a plan B for Shapo and he didn’t expect him to play this well. That’s the difference, Rafa knows how to wiggle his way through a tough opponent mid match. Zverev had no answers! I’m sure Rafa will be able to figure things out, he’s playing well enough!

  13. THERE we go! Poor match from Zverev and Shapo did not allow him to settle at any stage.

    One stat I had my eyes on before this match was Zverev’s second serve win %. He was winning in the range 29%-36% if memory serves me right and today he ends with 29%. Clearly a continuous struggle and an area of concern.

    Well done to Shapo! He is getting more consistent at slams now. Today wasn’t a great performance but definitely a solid one (11 DF’S with 37 UE in total against 35 winners).

    This guy is dangerous and he is a lefty. I am glad Rafa now has match play against a lefty who was also hitting very flat. Shapo has a huge game and he can do to Rafa what Verdasco did once but Rafa now has a better serve and better court positioning nowadays and we all know Shapo lacks the consistency.

    I think Rafa wins in tough 4 sets. It will be very tough to dictate rallies given Shapo’s firepower (serve, return, backhand, forehand!!) but I see Rafa’s problem-solving skills, his craft and fighting abilities to push him one match closer to #21.

    Guys, he is now matches away from history! One match at a time, but it is doable!.

    • Agree with you VR, Shapo lacks consistency, (and precision too imo). Once he’s engaged in longer rallies, he tends to overhit. Rafa has to handle Shapo’s big serve first and then tries to go into rallying with him to exploit his weakness.

      I also think that playing against a lefty like Manarinno will help Rafa against another lefty Shapo; it needs a bit of getting used to sometimes.

      Rafa is really clutch in the first set TB, even though his first serve may not be so reliable (thank goodness his second serve is solid enough when he needs it most).

      Unless Rafa’s game is off, I think he’s experienced enough to tough it out with Shapo and gets to the next round.

    • Very happy to see your analysis, VR! Just watched Rafa’s presser. He’s clearly thrilled with making the quarters. Says he never expected too when he came to Oz this year! Actually it was my best hope for him at that point seeing he was very undercooked and had been quite sick with covid!

      @NNY Btw I had also picked Dennis to win but only in the poll, and in 5. I’m terrible at predictions, too much influenced by my preferences and prejudices. I detest Abuserev and I like Dennis, who just seems like a really nice kid. I was happy to see him and Felix win the ATP Cup for Canada. They came so close in 2019 DC when Rafa pulled off his heroics, playing singles and doubles day after day and winning every match!

  14. Rafa’s serve overall wasn’t great but he posted some strong numbers too. He only had 55% first serves in play (THIS he can’t afford going forward) but when he made it, he won 88% of the points.

    SECOND SERVE:

    -He won a healthy 60% points in spite of 6 DF’s
    -The stat I have been pointing to (2nd serve average speed) was 103 mph (164 kmh) today! This is pretty big! He is not going to be easy to break!

    Overall, 42 winners against 22 UE against a player who was hitting so flat and early is pretty good.

    Vamos!

  15. Shapo averaged 99 mph for his second serve (though he has a better kick serve) but shows you how much Rafa is going for it now. I like it!

  16. I have to eat crow after my confident prediction that Shapo could not beat Zverev – but I am of course delighted! However, one of my assessments proved to be correct: Unlike Rafa who has a high tennis IQ, Zverev is still not able to change his tactics and to make mid-match adjustments when he runs into difficulties. This may be one reason why a slam title still eludes Zverev and why he may never become an all-time great. Best-of-five matches may be more difficult for him to handle because his opponent has more chances for a comeback than in best-of-three matches, where Zverev has collected his biggest titles. However, against Shapo he would have lost anyway today…

  17. Ok.. now comes the part with the most complications for rafa.. he has managed go come out empty handed in numerous second weeks at the australian open save 2009 when the odds against him were the highest. Hope this year is different

  18. Monfils was best junior in the world and only performed to about 70% of his potential throughout his professional career. He should’ve been a multiple grand slam winner.

  19. Well done Rafa! Onwards and upwards!
    And terrific from Schapo, at long last realising his potential.
    Gotta say marriage suits Monfils much more than it seems to suit Svetolina..;)

  20. Those who predicted that Zverev would win for sure – like myself – should have looked at some very surprising statstics: Zverev has NEVER won a slam match against a top-ten player! And he won only 4 out of 23 slam matches against top-20 players! Most experts have been fooled by Zverev’s great achievements outside of the four majors. But his statistics clearly indicate that he has not managed to overcome his problems at the slams. The question is not so much why he didn’t win a slam, yet. The big question is: why is such a talented and otherwise very successful player still unable to beat top players at the majors?
    I am a bit baffled by this, and I cannot name another player with such unique statistics.

    • Correction: At the slams Zverev won only 4 out of 19 matches against top-20 players. But even these slightly better statistics are very surprising.

  21. I only just found out the results!
    I did say to you guys on another thread that Shaps had won the last 2 out of 3 matches against Zverev and that the one he lost was very close with 2 tiebreaks!
    I just skim read the thread. Natashao says Rafa’s serve isn’t up to par which worried me a lot as she is a very astute reader of Rafa’s game…

    • I am definitely NOT an “astute reader” of anyone’s game, but I think that Rafa has been going for more on his serve, so it’s understandable that percentages have dropped. It’s probably in the hope of shortening points, something he really needs to continue to do for obvious reasons.

        • A mixture of both, Amy! Shapo played well at times, but he did not play lights-out great, while Zverev was really bad. He admitted in his presser that there were not any specific problems. But he had not felt comfortable during the past week.

          • Thanks littlefoot! Nice to see you here again!
            I just read that Zverev’s second serve is still a big problem. Very interesting stats about how much the top players second serve stats fall against the top 10. Djokovic, not surprisingly, heads the field as his stats scarcely drop at all. Zverev’s drop by 8%! Rublev’s by 11%! which doesn’t surprise me as he always goes out early in slams ( although that is frequently to much lower ranked players). Rafa’s drop by3.5% which is why, presumably, they are loading up his second serve now.
            Interesting stats…

  22. Very glad to see Barty go through as I want her to win the whole thing.
    Not surprised to see Krejcikova beat Azarenka but very surprised to see Keys beat Badosa so easily.

  23. Amy feelings for shapo?

    Qf is historically the trickiest and unluckiest for Rafa at ao. He has lost 6 here(10,11,15,18,20,21) and in those ,3 were injury retirements -10,11,18. So hope rafa wins this and marches ahead

    • Sanju I have already been thinking about how Rafa gets nervous in the qfs! He lost a match he was completely in control of against Tsitsi! And then there have been numerous hideous qfs at RG ie 2 against mega pest Diego and one against Sinner. Rafa said a couple of years ago that qfs are the bridge match to the title where he really has something to play for and I assume that is why he gets nervous in a way he never used to..

  24. Rafa hit a lot of aces today, he forced the first serve a bit but I’m sure that he did that on purpose – tuning it, seeing the limits. I’m sure that he‘ll serve in a safer manner in QFs. He ticked another checkbox and he’s on steady course.

    Like I predicted, Zverev didn’t get to trouble Rafa or benefit from Djokovic’s absence. However I did not expect him to crash THAT hard. Well, good ridance.

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