French Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Popyrin, Rublev vs. Struff

Andrey Rublev
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Rafael Nadal begins his bid for a 14th French Open title when he goes up against Alexei Popyrin on Tuesday. First-round action is also wrapping up with a showdown between Andrey Rublev and Jan-Lennard Struff.

(3) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexei Popyrin


Nadal will get his fortnight at Roland Garros started on Tuesday. The Spaniard is 100-2 lifetime at this tournament with 13 titles. Even when conditions were not favorable for him last fall, Nadal still could not be stopped. Coming off a Rome title in addition to another Barcelona triumph, there is little reason to think that will be denied in his latest trip to Paris.

Popyrin gets the first chance, and he certainly isn’t the easiest of first-round opponents. The 21-year-old Australian is up to 63rd in the rankings, thanks in part to his first career title earlier this year in Singapore. Although Popyrin has been decent on clay in 2021, it definitely isn’t his best surface and he got blown out by Nadal 6-3, 6-3 in Madrid–where conditions are far worse for the 20-time Grand Slam champion than they are in Paris. This should be a mostly straightforward opener.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

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How many games will Popyrin win?


Jan-Lennard Struff vs. (7) Andrey Rublev

Rublev and Struff will be squaring off for the fourth time in their careers at the ATP level and for the second time this season when they meet again on Tuesday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Rublev, who most recently prevailed 6-7(7), 6-1, 6-4 at the Rome Masters. Struff’s lone victory has come on an indoor hard court via a 6-4, 7-6(6) victory three years ago in St. Petersburg.

That was well before Rublev’s 2020 and 2021 rise to prominence. The seventh-ranked Russian led the tour with five titles last year and he is currently third in the race to Turin behind Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Struff managed to be competitive in Rome, but for the most part he hasn’t been in great form of late and he is coming off a 6-2, 6-4 loss to Tommy Paul in Parma. The big-serving German would have a better chance in this one on a faster surface.

Pick: Rublev in 3

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WWW: Rublev vs. Struff?

38 Comments on French Open R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Popyrin, Rublev vs. Struff

  1. I don’t like that Rafa didn’t break for 7-5.
    But Rafa is often nervy in the first round. He played a very good breaker.

  2. Popyrin beat Sinner in straights at Madrid so he does have game.
    As for Rublev, I did say repeatedly that it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the young fancied players went out early.
    They aren’t consistent.

    • Popyrin has game all right – big serve, big groundies – but he’s also got a *really* bad case of Fear of Winning and of only winning a set v Nadal at RG. Totally lost the ability to play. Lucky for me – and Rafa, of course. 🙂 Unlike the in-person fans I didn’t want to see more Rafa-tennis today!

      I may watch some Djoko-tennis later and enjoy seeing Sandgren get beat up!

    • The danger is sinner n karatsev I think .esp karatsev .it never was rublev on this court irres of what happ at montecarlo watch moyas interview on karatsev ..rafa trained with him n moya said he was very impressed

    • Amy, U seem to have fun being there by ure lonesome, lol!!! Anyway, happy Rafa won this in str8ts! They always say, if you want to beat Rafa at RG you have to get him in the first week bcos he always starts slow and is nervy. But he won and he lives to fight another day. He has one day to fix all the kinks!

      Theim and Rublev are gone, let’s c who’s next, lol!

      Vamos, Rafa!! See you on Thursday. Rafa vs Gasquet! Poor Gasquet, lol!! Whoops, let me not jinx it!!

  3. British TV commentators (on Eurosport) were sad, as usual, when Rafa wins:

    @Stroppa_Del (a Rafa fan) 29 minutes ago: “The absolute sadness when Rafa is ahead. Now if the other old one was…”

    @Stroppa_Del (a Rafa fan) 30 minutes ago: “Sad commies are sad.”

    Vamos Rafa! ✌

    • Even Brit commies cannot have thought that Rafa was going to lose to Popgun in the first round at RG!

      The American commies were delighted when Popgun showed some signs of life in the 3rd set but I think they were just hoping for a real match. Still they’re Roger fans, probably would prefer that Rafa not get past 20 slams.

      • Marilyn Wasserman AT 5:53 PM,

        The Brit commies hoped Pop would win.

        @Stroppa_Del (a Rafa fan) 17h ago: “GSM Rafael Nadal. Time for the commies to take their medicine.”

  4. Karatman is a danger. I stick my head in the sand when I see him in a draw. It feels better to pretend one of my favorites will beat him. But, Karat could win, even over five sets, if need be. Kohlschreiber is Aslan’s next potential victim so, fingers crossed Kohlschreiber prevails. (I kind of doubt it.) I picked Schwartzman to beat Karat. If that dream doesn’t work, Aslan will be on a collision course with Struff or Basilashvilli. What I am getting at is, a Karat v Rafa match is on the horizon. In such a case, I hope Rafa gives him a stern whupping!

      • …true, and yet, I fear him. Probably still stinging for him taking out Nole so easily. In his day, Kohls would be up to it.

        • I fear Karat Man because of your descriptions of him Elizabeth! I haven’t seen him play.
          If that is the quarters I will be very nervous. Not just because of Karat Man but because Rafa seems to get nervous in GS quarters now on a frequent basis. Also, I fear that they will have it as the last men’s night match.

          • As Big Al says, Karatman has not been tested on clay over 5 sets. To heck with my worries. I over-think the ATP brackets most of the time. WTA, I’m just lost right now, there are too many names I don’t know or remember.

            Dear Rafa fans, I spoke too soon.

          • Too late rc! I hold you personally responsible for my fear of the wild rampaging marauder which is Karat Man!
            I have never actually seen him play so it’s all on you…
            To be fair, others see him as a threat as well..
            Come on Kohli!

  5. Looking ahead is not a good idea. I am taking it one match at a time. I expect Rafa to peak in the second week. I am not afraid of Karat Man. If Rafa is playing the way we know he does in the second week of RG, he’s going to be just fine.

    • Nny, you are right to take one match at a time as Rafa always does.
      That common sense attitude is a core part of his greatness.

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