Madrid final preview and prediction: Zverev vs. Berrettini

Alexander Zverev will be going for his second title in his fourth career Mutua Madrid Open appearance when he battles Matteo Berrettini in a relatively surprising final on Sunday evening.

In three previous trips to the Caja Magica, Zverev had never lost prior to the quarterfinals. He lifted the trophy in 2018, defeating Dominic Thiem in the final. Conditions are perfect for the seventh-ranked German at this tournament, and he has had no trouble making another successful run this week. Zverev’s trip to the final has been littered with straight-set victories, with Kei Nishikori, Dan Evans, Rafael Nadal, and Thiem succumbing as the victims.

Up next for the No. 5 seed is Berrettini, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1. They have faced each other twice on clay; Zverev got the job done 7-5, 6-2 at the 2018 Rome Masters before Berrettini prevailed 7-5, 7-5 at that same Rome event 12 months later. They most recently collided at the 2019 Shanghai Masters, where Zverev cruised to a 6-3, 6-4 semifinal victory.

Berrettini fell just short of his first Masters 1000 appearance two years ago in Shanghai, and now he has finally achieved that career milestone. The 10th-ranked Italian started to pick up momentum with a title on the red clay of Belgrade last month and he has maintained it with Madrid wins over Fabio Fognini, Federico Delbonis, Cristian Garin, and Casper Ruud. Only Garin has managed to take a set.

However, the competition level ratchets up dramatically in the form of Zverev.

“He’s playing really [well],” Berrettini assured. “He’s solid; he moves well; he serves well. I mean, he’s in the final. He beat Rafa and Dominic, probably the best players on clay. It’s going to be a challenging match, but I’m in the finals. I guess the best two guys are going to play each other.”

That may be true, but the undisputed best player from start to finish this week has been Zverev. He also has the experience edge as the winner of three Masters 1000 titles, whereas Berrettini is playing in his first such final. Look for Zverev to complete his perfect run through the the Madrid draw, but Berrettini is at least playing well enough and hitting the ball big enough to make each set competitive.

Pick: Zverev in 2