Australian Open R1 previews and predictions: Carreno Busta vs. Nishikori, Millman vs. Moutet

One of many marquee first-round matchups at the Australian Open pits Pablo Carreno Busta against Kei Nishikori on Monday. Also taking the court for Day 1 action are Aussie John Millman and Frenchman Corentin Moutet.

Kei Nishikori vs. (15) Pablo Carreno Busta

It will be a rematch of one of the most notorious matches in recent Australian Open history when Carreno Busta and Nishikori meet again on Monday. Their only previous encounter came Down Under two years ago, when Nishikori survived a 6-7(8), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-4, 7-6(8) thriller. In the 10-point tiebreaker, Carreno Busta fell victim to a questionable judgement call involving a challenge and left the court in a fit of rage after losing. There won’t be that kind of controversy this time around, as electronic line-calling is now being used.

There may not be a dramatic fifth set, either, because Nishikori is no longer the player he was in 2019–and before 2019. The 31-year-old from Japan won only two matches last season and he has fallen out of the top 40, mostly due to injury. He went 0-2 at the ATP Cup this past week, getting blown out by Daniil Medvedev and falling to Diego Schwartzman 6-0 in the third set. Carreno Busta, whose successful 2020 campaign was highlighted by a semifinal run at the U.S. Open, went 2-1 at the ATP Cup. The 16th-ranked Spaniard should be able to get revenge without much trouble.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 3

Corentin Moutet vs. John Millman

Millman hopes to advance far enough in Melbourne to make as much noise as he did last year, although it won’t be easy in a section of the draw with seeds Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka. The 38th-ranked Australian ousted Ugo Humbert and Hubert Hurkacz en route to the third round in 2020, when he eventually led Roger Federer 8-4 in their fifth-set super-tiebreaker before falling short. Millman should remain confident, as he wrapped up last year with his first career ATP title in Nur-Sultan and a quarter-final performance in Sofia.

Up first for the 31-year-old on Monday is Moutet, whom he has never faced. Moutet is coming off a strong week at the Murray River Open, where he won four matches before falling to Felix Auger-Aliassime. However, the 21-year-old Frenchman is 0-3 lifetime at the Aussie Open (qualifying included) and Millman will have home-court advantage even though the crowd won’t be quite the same as it is under normal circumstances.

Pick: Millman in 5