Best Bets of the Day

Thursday best bets (2024 record: 146-145, -20.52 units; Weekly record: 0-0, +0.00 units)

Yafan Wang +3.5 games over Katie Volynets (-105) – This looks like a toss-up match to me, so getting 3.5 games with Wang is an absolute steal. Wang won their only previous meeting earlier this season on the hard courts of Hua Hin and clay doesn’t really favor either woman. Volynets did well to qualify for the Rome main draw, but her matches were close and she has otherwise slumped this spring. Wang has good chance to win this one outright.

Lorenzo Sonego over Dusan Lajovic (-110) – I’m not sure how Sonego vs. Lajovic is priced evenly, but I’m not complaining! This is at the Foro Italico and Sonego has won three is row against Lajovic, taking a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head series. Clay is arguably a bit more advantageous for Lajovic, but Sonego won their most recent encounter on the slow stuff in straight sets at the 2020 Rio de Janeiro event. At home in Italy, Sonego should once again take care of business.

Emma Navarro over Paula Badosa (-116) – Badosa is coming off a nice win over Mirra Andreeva, but the overall respective bodies of work for Badosa and Navarro cannot be compared. Badosa is 7-9; Navarro is 25-9. Clay doesn’t give Badosa any kind of real advantage, either; in fact, Navarro’s lifetime winning percentage on the surface with a 100-47 record is better than that of the Spaniard. There is no question that the American should be a bigger favorite in this matchup.

Angelique Kerber +3.5 games over Veronika Kudermetova (-110) – I would take Kerber to win this match outright, so getting her on a +3.5 spread is an absolute steal. The faced each other earlier this spring in Miami and Kerber cruised 6-4, 7-5. A move to clay shouldn’t change much; they have an almost identical lifetime record on this surface. Kudermetova’s struggles have continued since Miami, including a bad 6-4, 6-4 loss to Maria Lourdes Carle in Madrid. There is no reason to think she will turn the tide to a drastic extent against Kerber in Rome.

Best underdog value:
Nakashima (+114) over Kecmanovic
Gigante (+135) over Zeppieri
Muller (+165) over Fucsovics
Moreno de Alboran (+165) over Van de Zandschulp
Coric (+120) over Draper
Giron (+125) over Ruusuvuori
Nardi (+132) over Altmaier
Carle (+135) over Siegemund
Wang (+205) over Volynets
Saville (+160) over Tauson
Errani (+220) over Anisimova
Shnaider (+112) over Samsonova
Kerber (+185) over Kudermetova
Kostyuk (+100) over Osaka
Putintseva (+110) over Stephens
Osorio Serrano (+145) over Keys

Best favorite value:
Rinderknech (-130) over Passaro
Popyrin (-120) over Medjedovic
Sonego (-110) over Lajovic
Navarro (-116) over Badosa

Other top match picks
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WTA picks
Noskova over Stefanini in 2
Swiatek over Pera in 2
Vondrousova over Bogdan in 2
Navarro over Badosa in 2
Kostyuk over Osaka in 3
Gauff over Frech in 2
Putintseva over Stephens in 2
Haddad Maia over Wang in 2
Kasatkina over Maria in 2
Fruhvirtova over Cirstea in 3
Alexandrova over Sasnovich in 2
Shnaider over Samsonova in 3
Osorio Serrano over Keys in 3
Zheng over Rogers in 3
Kerber over Kudermetova in 3
Cristian over Avanesyan in 2
Errani over Anisimova in 3
Sramkova over Pedone in 2
Cocciaretto over Zarazua in 2
Sorribes Tormo over Podoroska in 2
Gracheva over Di Sarra in 2
Wang over Volynets in 3
Begu over Masarova in 3
Saville over Tauson in 3
Carle over Siegemund in 3
Potapova over Wang in 2

Weekly WTA record: 8-4 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 5 out of 8)

Best weekly futures bets
– Iga Swiatek to win Rome (+140)
– Danielle Collins to win Rome (+1300)
– Jelena Ostapenko to win Rome (+4000)
– Casper Ruud to win Rome (+1200)
– Andrey Rublev to win Rome (+1600)
– Alexander Zverev to win Rome (+1100)

Futures betting: +28.55 units through May 5
– Grigor Dimitrov to win Brisbane (3 units at +600)
– Andrey Rublev to win Hong Kong (3 units at +260)
– Aryna Sabalenka to win Australian Open (3 units at +400)
– Jannik Sinner to win Australian Open (3 units at +700)
– Alexander Bublik to win Montpellier (1 unit at +550)
– Ugo Humbert to win Marseille (1 unit at +800)
– Tommy Paul to win Dallas (2 units at +450)
– Alex de Minaur to win Acapulco (3 units at +700)
– Iga Swiatek to win Indian Wells (3 units at +275)
– Jannik Sinner to win Miami (3 units at +300)
– Jan-Lennard Struff to win Munich (1 unit at +1600)
– Casper Ruud to win Barcelona (2 units at +550)

2024 WTA record: 437-283 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 253 out of 437)

2023 WTA record: 951-518 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 618 out of 951)

2022 WTA record: 1084-510 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 714 out of 1084)

2021 WTA record: 1543-765 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 1043 out of 1543)

2020 WTA record: 402-221 (correct # of sets in winning picks: 254 out of 402)

2023 Best Bets record: 275-267-12

2022 Best Bets record: 255-234-6

2021 Best Bets record: 403-391-12

2020 Best Bets record: 173-135-7