Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Thiem vs. Berrettini

It will be a dead rubber–in Davis Cup terms–when Dominic Thiem and Matteo Berrettini wrap up their round-robin campaigns at the Nitto ATP Finals on Thursday afternoon.

As such, it is almost impossible to predict what will happen–specifically with their respective mentalities. What should be on display is an inspired Thiem, eager to maintain momentum after already clinching victory in Group A, and a hungry Berrettini, hoping to salvage one win in his year-end championship debut.

If all of that turns out to be the case, this could be a good one. They have faced each other three times, including twice already this fall, with Thiem leading the head-to-head series 2-1. The 26-year-old Austrian prevailed 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-2 at the 2018 French Open, lost to Berrettini 7-6(8), 6-4 last month in the Shanghai quarterfinals, and survived a 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 semifinal thriller in Vienna en route to an emotional title on home soil.

Thiem’s London exploits have somehow already managed to trump what was on display in Vienna. In the span of three days, the world No. 5 took down two all-time greats in Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Following a 7-5, 7-5 upset of Federer, Thiem outlasted Djokovic in a 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) instant classic that lasted two hours and 47 minutes on Tuesday night.

“Probably it was the best match I ever played,” Thiem commented. “It was a real classic; (an) epic match which will happen from time to time at these big tournaments.”

Regardless of the quality, it won’t happen between Thiem and Berrettini simply based on the relatively low stakes. The 23-year-old Italian has been mathematically eliminated by straight-set losses to Djokovic and Federer, but extra money and ranking points would be a decent consolation prize.

“[I played] against the best guys on the planet and maybe the best guys ever,” Berrettini said of his first two matches inside the O2 Arena. “So I’m proud of what I’m doing. I’m proud how I’m facing these kind of situations. I think that I played a good match also against Novak even if the score was not that good. But for sure I’m learning. And these kind of losses, they will help me in the future to get better.

“When I stepped in the locker (room) and my coaches were there, I said, ‘Guys, I want to be better. I want to be able to beat those guys.’ But I’m ready to do the preseason already.”

It remains to be seen if by the “preseason” comment Berrettini meant that he has already mentally checked out of London or if he is just motivated to work hard for next season. Whatever the case, Thiem has been the best player in the field this week and anything close to what he produced against Djokovic would be enough to hand Berrettini another defeat.

Pick: Thiem in 2

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