U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Medvedev

The crowd would have been forced to root for someone if the anticipated Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev quarterfinal had come to fruition in the top half of the U.S. Open draw. But it did not, and now there will be no mistake: Stan Wawrinka will have just about everyone’s support on Tuesday afternoon.

Medvedev and Wawrinka will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers after the Swiss upset Novak Djokovic (via third-set retirement) on Sunday night. Their only previous encounter came in the Wimbledon first round two years ago, when Medvedev prevailed 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

“I was on fire that match,” Medvedev reflected.

Just 21 years old at that point in time, Medvedev has now emerged as one of the best players on tour. The 23-year-old Russian has surged to fifth in the world and fourth in the 2019 race to London thanks to an unbelievable summer that includes three consecutive finals in Washington, D.C. (runner-up), Montreal (runner-up), and Cincinnati (title). Despite showing some obvious and understandable signs of wear and tear throughout this fortnight, Medvedev has managed to maintain momentum by beat Prajnesh Gunneswaran, Hugo Dellien, Feliciano Lopez, and Dominik Koepfer.

Of course, the real story with Medvedev has been his interactions with the fans–a saga that started when he was shown on the big screen giving them the finger behind his head during his third-round win over Lopez. He has been constantly serenaded with boos and has been happy to give it right back to the crowd during his post-match interviews.

“I saw a lot of drama happening this year at the U.S. Open,” Wawrinka noted. “But it’s a lot of fun also to watch for everybody. I saw also he’s been playing amazing tennis, making final after final, winning Cincinnati, winning here a lot. It’s going to be interesting match to play against him. I’m looking forward for it. It’s the quarterfinal. It’s going to be, for sure, a great level.”

Wawrinka’s level is once again elite on the biggest stage in tennis. Despite having never reached a top-two world ranking, the 34-year-old Swiss is a three-time Grand Slam champion–including a title at the 2016 U.S. Open. He is through to the quarterfinals in New York for a sixth time and is one victory away from a fourth appearance in the semis. Wawrinka preceded his success against Djokovic by defeating Jannik Sinner, Jeremy Chardy, and Poalo Lorenzi.

“I think that Stan in Grand Slams, he’s playing right now better than in other tournaments,” Medvedev commented.

And that’s the understatement of the century. Wawrinka is a whole different beast in these best-of-five situations and nowhere is he better than at the U.S. Open. Moreover, Medvedev has been seen with tape all over his body in all of his matches and he has to be running low on energy in both the physical and mental departments.

Wawrinka may be ranked 19 places lower than his opponent right now, but he should be the favorite in this match–and certainly will be with the crowd.

Pick: Wawrinka in 4

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35 Comments on U.S. Open QF preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Medvedev

  1. my bracket pick is Medvedev. I have to stay with him. If the crowd is for Stan, as expected, I will be good for Danill, no matter how much tape is on!

    Medvedev in 4

  2. I’ve been a backer of iron man this long, Im not going to drop off now especially when he’s results suggest he probably has a slight edge going into this match.

    In terms of the matchup, I think Medvedev has a slight edge and actually does a few things better than Djokovic.

    Medvedev in 4.

  3. This Wawrinka prediction feels awfully similar to the Kyrgios prediction for some reason.

    Medvdev is young, only needs a days rest and a good feed to recover from a 100km triathlon.

  4. Wawa in four; he’s fit enough to go toe to toe with Medvedev and may outlast Medvedev physically.

    I think Fed may need four sets to beat Dimi; a Stan vs Fed SF will be mouth watering judging from how they played at FO this year. Stan may want a redemption this time; he has to finish off Medvedev quickly to conserve energy for the SF. At the FO, he was physically off slightly after his five plus hours match vs Tsitsipas in the previous round.

  5. Medvedev is now two sets to nil up against Stan. Wow, I thought he should be physically tired by now! He’s really something, will be tough for anyone facing him, including Fedal.

  6. Seems to me Medvedev could even rally better than Djoko from the baseline. Stan could over power Djoko from the baseline but he couldn’t against Medvedev.

    Medvedev seems to have so many tricks up his sleeves, could just pull out something to save him out of troubles so often.

    • He’s so damn good. I had him beating Djokovic at this stage in my bracket but Daniil had looked a little more vulnerable to me heading into this match with Stan. But he’s big time so he’s stepped it up. His fitness and endurance is obviously very good.

      • Yeah this guy beats everybody except Fed and Rafa!!! Well, he might have one more chance on Friday and perhaps another on Sunday too, lol!!

  7. No better feeling than to fade Ricky’s picks and win three figures on one match. OOoohhhh yeaaaa. Time for a soda and to go for a long run in the sun. Later Luzerzzzz

  8. No idea how Medvedev did this. The guy is a machine and the momentum he has, I won’t be surprised if he beats Federer. I guess he has two days off now? He’ll physically be fine then most prob.

  9. Well done and congrats to Medvedev. He’s really a fit guy, Hope with two days rest, he’ll be ok for the SF.

    What a witty and smart guy he is, a few words and he had some from the crowd applauding him; I think some are willing to forgive him of his misbehaving in his last two matches. At least he’s not afraid to show that good or bad, he’s what he is.

    Commies to Stan too, to beat the no.1 guy at a slam is really something; hope he’s really back to or at least close to his good level of tennis that we know he could produce in the past.

    • But with even more varieties in his game than Djoko. He could junk ball like a Murray. I even feel that he’s more a Murray than a Djoko but with a better serve but not as great ROS (compared to both Djoko and Murray). His BH can be insanely good too!

    • I don’t know about a great shot. He has an okay chance at best in my opinion, simply because Federer matches up well with him. Roger takes the ball so early and plays so aggressive, and Medvedev’s court positioning is generally quite far back once he gets into rallies or is returning. It’s something both Rafa and Roger have punished Medvedev for in the past. But first Roger has to get by Grigor.

      • Fair point. I think Rafa’s game is more suited to combating Medvedev’s though and Fed could be susceptible if his backhand is not firing. And of course this will be a different Medvedev with respect to self belief relative to what we have seen in the past against Fed/Rafa which makes a huge difference. All subject to him being fit of course which I hope he is.

        • And in my view Fed hasn’t played anyone who would expose weaknesses in his game so far -including Dimi today who is a great match up for him

        • Good point. It will be interesting to see how he is feeling in that match. It would be an insanely impressive feat for Medvedev to win against Roger in the semis. I hope he is healthy as well. Although I also hope Roger wins tonight and beats Medvedev

  10. Liking what I saw from Medvedev at the end there. No trying to be the bad guy again. He was respectful to the crowd and the crowd was respectful to him. Cool calm and collected. The kind of tennis he was playing heading into the tournament. I think he knew he had to dial in and reengage that neutral relaxed mindset he is capable of playing with. Well done Daniil, well deserved.

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