Wimbledon QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Goffin

Kei Nishikori gets another shot–whether he wants one or not–at a Big 3 opponent when he takes the court against Roger Federer in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic and David Goffin are also in action.

(8) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Roger Federer

Federer and Nishikori will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers when they clash in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 7-3 in favor of Federer, who had won six in a row at Nishikori’s expense before they most recently faced each other at the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals. Nishikori won a round-robin match 7-6(4), 6-3 only to get eliminated from that competition in swift fashion while Federer eventually cruised into the semis.

Whenever the stakes have been much higher, the Japanese world No. 7 has been hopeless against the Big 3. He took one set off Djokovic in the 2018 Wimbledon quarters but dropped the other three 6-3, 6-2, and 6-2, lost to Djokovic 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in the U.S. Open semis, retired against Djokovic in the Australian Open quarters while trailing 6-1, 4-1, and succumbed to Nadal 6-1, 6-1, 6-3 in the French Open quarters. Nishikori is well-rested this time around due to unusually simple matches earlier in this event. Federer, though, has also been dominant. The 37-year-old Swiss eased through week one and then destroyed Matteo Berrettini (previously 10-1 on grass this summer) 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 on Monday. This should not be competitive.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (21) David Goffin

Thanks in part to a favorable draw, Djokovic has been the most dominant out of everyone in the tournament–expect maybe Roberto Bautista Agut of all people. The world No. 1 and defending champion dropped one set to Hubert Hurkacz, but he also made mincemeat out of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Denis Kudla, and Ugo Humbert. Djokovic is now 68-10 lifetime at the All-England Club and bidding for his fifth title.

Up next for the top-seeded Serb on Wednesday is a seventh career contest against Goffin, who trails the head-to-head series 5-1. Just as Nishikori beat Federer last fall, the 23rd-ranked Belgian won his most recent match against Djokovic in a result that can be completely discounted. Djokovic was a shadow of his true self at that point. Goffin has been outstanding so far in London with defeats of Bradley Klahn, Jeremy Chardy, Daniil Medvedev, and Fernando Verdasco, but this is obviously a huge step up in competition. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 1-11 in total sets in his other five tries against Djokovic.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing more than 12 games

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53 Comments on Wimbledon QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Goffin

  1. I dont expect many surprises for these two matches.
    Kei might fight more on first set taking it to a TB bu that should be it. Same with Goffin, even fighting in a second set, but that’s it. Fed and Nole have been way too firm this week. If nothing outstanding happens on Sunday Nole will be wisshing that on Friday Fed and Nadal (maaaaybe Querrey) fight it over 3 or more hours. In other words. Sunday match starts Friday

    • Don’t think so. Djoko will have a hard time vs Agut in the SF should they both get there. Agut is one player who can run forever, so he’ll match Djoko shot for shot, will go toe to toe with Djoko, just like what Schwartzman or Simon could do to Djoko, ie drag him into a long baseline war. It could be an exhausting match for Djoko in the SF.

  2. Fed and Djoko in 4. Both Kei and Goffin are good enough to get a set. It may be grass surface but the bounce may be like on a HC now with the dry weather persisting, and Kei on the quick HC of AO in 2017 could get two sets out of Fed, I think this time he may get one when he’s still physically not so tired (no long matches thus far for Kei).

    Goffin with his quickness around the court, should he come forward to the net more instead of staying at the baseline all the time, may just sneak a set against Djoko but I don’t expect anything more than that.

  3. Im surprised to see how everyone seems to think that Roger and Novak will cruise while Rafa will struggle or even lose, sigh!!! Ok, we’ll see! Its only when its clay i’m making predictions! That’s the only definite in tennis, lol!

  4. Goffin has the tools but he is a bit hesitant on the important points. But Novak is not having a walk over like many ppl are predicting. Goffin seems tp be putting pressure on Novak’s serves.

  5. Uhmmmm, Goffin draws first blood!!

    Tennis is really about ‘on the day’! Not saying Novak will lose but the cruising that ppl were predicting i knew would not happen!

    I think they all will have struggles today, perhaps except for Agut!

      • You see how the greats win matches, as soon as Goffin gave back that break, I knew the match was over, sigh!!

        Goffin has the tools but not the belief! And he is not playing smart enough tennis! Cant engage in a baseline war with Novak you’ll lose!

  6. Tight set. I love Goffin. I’m sorry he had to lose that set. My two favorite players but Nole must win in 3. Come on!

      • Probably right. But the first set of both these SF’s was high level. Yeah time to go buy ice cream but it’s a bit early here for ice cream. I would feel terribly guilty having a pint for breakfast!! Chocolate addict.

        • Am back without ice cream but have bought several bars of chocolate! I too am a chocaholic! It’s hot here and I don’t like the heat!

          • It’s going to be mid 90’s F. here today. NOT my kind of weather!! It will be close to 100 F here for the rest of the July, August and much of September. I should live in Northern Scotland! Or in Siberia!

          • God poor you! I find the heat makes me very snappy and miserable. I don’t like the loss of privacy for one thing…

  7. Last I checked, Goffin was up a break in the first set, 4-3. I check back what seems like only minutes later and Goffin has lost NINE STRAIGHT GAMES to lose the second set and get BAGELLED in the 2nd set??!? Wtf? Is Goffin hurt or something? Or is Nole just playing out of his mind after being down a break?

    • Nole upped his intensity just enough and with that, Goffin couldn’t hold or consolidate all his fine work he did first set to get a break. But if Nole takes his foot off the gas, Goffin will take advantage. And it’s one of the reasons why I love Goffin. But, I’d rather Nole win in straight sets since he’ll have to likely play RBA next!!

  8. Goffin is totally hopeless! He’s ranked in the 20s, but he’s doing worse than any of Djoko’s low ranked opponents, I mean gets bageled in the QF?

    Why is he always hitting CC right back at Djoko? And his drop shots, why drop shots right back to the court where Djoko was there, when there’s the open court out there? He’s really not using his brain while hitting those shots.

    It’s like he really has no idea how to play Djoko. Why not S&V a bit instead of standing there waiting for the ball to come back after he served? At least put some pressure on Djoko’s returns, and not let him dictate all the time!

    Goffin should be playing better than this, when he should be moving up to the net instead of rallying from the baseline. At the rate this match is going, Fed should be out playing in the next QF at 3 to 3.30 pm!

    • Nole is too good for Goffin. Goffin’s best hope is that Nole loses focus and if that happens Goffin will be ready. Goffin doesn’t give up. He did take a break that second set wipe out. I love Goffin’s game and watching him beat who he needed to beat to make the QF. But he’s no match for Rafa or Nole. Even 38 year old Federer would be a tough ask for Goffin. It’s not for Goffin’s lack of trying that he loses to the big three.

      I’m happy for Goffin that when he makes the QF’s in the GS’s. Win or lose I love the athlete and what he’s done with his talent.

  9. With the form Novak will surely be in by the Final, that’s rough for Rafa or Fed. Even if Fed managed to get through Rafa in the SF, which I’m pretty unsure of, he will surely face the same mental block against Novak that he has suffered from for years at the Majors. Both Fed and Rafa have come close to beating Novak at a major since they last beat him at a major, but neither has been able to get over the line. I feel like Rafa could have definitely overcame it at RG the last few years had he gotten to face Novak. Fed would have had a good shot had he gotten to face Novak at Wimbledon 2017 or AO 2017/2018. But I believe that ship has sailed for Fed. I DON’T believe that ship has sailed for Rafa, given that he’s still young enough and is still playing at a very high level. While Fed does still have the game on grass to potentially get over Djokovic at Wimbledon, I think Rafa has a much better shot at it now than Fed does.

    • Djoko doesn’t even need to do anything special against this Goffin! Against Hurkacz, Djoko was made to work hard in the first two sets. This Goffin, after breaking serve in the first set, he duly handed the break back; this is not the way to play against the no.1 player!

      Goffin just has so much difficulties holding his own serve!

      • Quite right. If he only had a serve. Must be frustrating for a lot of you. But his serve once in a while is good enough to win but not vs Rafa or Nole.

        Guido however, has a tricky lefty serve, if he’s not completely worn out. He’s aiming to win another set off of RBA. Patience of the saints, Guido!

      • Goffin was a disappointment. He is not the same player he was. He’s lost something. Getting bageled in the second set? He was a top ten player at one time. I did not see most of the match, but what I did see was just not good from Goffin.

    • I feel similarly to this, although I don’t give Rafa *that* much more chance than Fed. As I’ve said before, they both still have a bit of a mental block when it comes to Novak. Rafa’s just so damn good on clay that he can still win there.

      However, if ever there was a time to overcome it, it’s probably now. Nadal could’ve easily won that semi last year. If anything he’s playing better this time around.

  10. You see it over and over again, players break to serve for the set, then cant hold their own service games, and get broken back straight waay, thats the difference between the good and the greats of the game, theres never any panic when they get their service games broken, mentally much tougher ….

    • Yes, yes. Goffin would need his serve to be a consistent weapon if he was to raise his level. But I think he peaked when he was top ten. Sadly he’ll not be able to get there again.

      I liked Ugo Humbert’s tennis; and Hurkacz tennis too.

  11. Looking at how RBA plays now against a tired Pella, I doubt he’s going to get a set from Djoko in the SF should he beat Pella here.

    I initially thought that RBA maybe could fight against Djoko to get a set but he doesn’t look that impressive after all. Djoko will send him packing quite handily in the SF.

    • Well, RBA is a formidable opponent for Nole …I’m not confident the match will be done in a tidy 3 sets as I hope. RBA can be a problem for most anyone on his day.

  12. We could be in for a repeat of AO 2017 4th round! Fed has to scrap and claw his way through that one after losing the first set. I believe it went 5, and that was a faster court. Wimbledon being quite slow, Nishi can upset Fed if he can keep up his level and if Fed can’t up his.

  13. It’s not been fun watching him get beat in a match that earlier in his life he would have certainly won. Poor Mirka and Leo and Lenny. I saw some pictures of Leo and Lenny watching their daddy lose. One was crying. Charlene and Myla Rose have never appeared to care either way. But the Mirka and the boys..horrible.

    Although I will be happy for Kei if he makes the SF.

  14. Fed won’t lose! He will win in four or five sets, I know Kei is good for a set when he is playing well so far this Wimbledon.

  15. Fed has stepped it up a gear now. That second set was probably the best set he’s played all tournament. If I’m not mistaken, he made zero unforced errors. When he’s playing like that he’s essentially unstoppable. Still don’t know how he moves and defends as well he has either. Considering he’s almost 38.

  16. So, Fed v Nadal (one last time?)

    Don’t think Fed was particularly good here besides the 2nd set, but I’m happy he won even though I think he will lose to Rafa in the next round.

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