Wimbledon Day 1 expert picks, including Dimitrov vs. Wawrinka and Gasquet vs. Monfils

Ricky Dimon of the Grandstand and longtime Tennistalk writer Cheryl Murray make their picks for four of the best matchups on Monday at Wimbledon. The schedule includes Grigor Dimitrov vs. Stan Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet vs. Gael Monfils.

Stan Wawrinka vs. (6) Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: From strictly a name recognition standpoint, this is by far the biggest match of the entire first round. When these guys are at their best, it’s a matchup worthy of a Grand Slam semifinal. Neither one, though, is in peak form right now. Wawrinka, of course, is struggling the most. He is just 5-9 in his comeback from a knee injury and got clobbered by Andy Murray in the Eastbourne first round. Dimitrov is a modest 19-12 in 2018 and must make a move if he wants a chance of defending his Nitto ATP Finals title, but the Bulgarian should have more than enough to take care of a rusty and reeling opponent. Dimitrov in 3: 6-3, 7-6, 6-1.

Cheryl: A look at the rankings might indicate that this match will be a blowout. Dimitrov is the world No. 6, while Wawrinka isn’t in the top 200 right now due to a well-documented struggle with injury. And indeed, Dimitrov has won their last 4 meetings; but Wawrinka is a three-time Grand Slam champion. Dimitrov’s best slam results are semifinal showings at Wimbledon (2014) and the Australian Open (2017) plus the quarters of the AO this year. If Wawrinka can re-find his form in London, this could be a good match–otherwise Dimitrov will run away with it. Dimitrov in 4: 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 6-2.

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Gael Monfils vs. (23) Richard Gaquet

Ricky: Gasquet should probably win this in less than five. After all, he was the recent champion on the grass of ‘s-Hertogenbosch and his fellow Frenchman was–until reaching the Antalya semis–just 11-11 in his last 22 matches since beginning the season 5-0 with a title in Doha. But both of these guys will probably find a way to make this go five. Monfils has been ousted from Wimbledon by a Frenchman the last three years, and in five sets every time. Moreover, the last three non-retirement meetings between Monfils and Gasquet have all required deciding sets, including a 6-2, 6-7(7), 7-6(4) victory for Monfils last summer on the Eastbourne grass. Gasquet in 5: 6-3, 2-6, 6-2, 6-7, 6-1.

Cheryl: Much unlike Coric vs. Medvedev, this is a battle of the previous generation. It has the potential to be one hell of an entertaining match…or not; it depends on which Monfils shows up. Both Frenchmen are in form on grass, with Gasquet snagging the title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Monfils was reaching semis in Antalya this past week. Monfils holds the slight head-to-head edge at 9-7, but I think this one goes to Gasquet. Gasquet in 4: 7-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.

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Daniil Medvedev vs. (16) Borna Coric

Ricky: This has letdown match written all over it for Coric. The red-hot Croat recently captured the biggest title of his career in Halle, where he stunned Roger Federer in the final. Thus the pressure of expectations is on in a major way at the All-England Club, where Coric could face Federer again in the last 16. But he better not look past a tough opener against Medvedev, who is 15-12 this season with one title (Sydney). This won’t be easy, but Coric’s confidence should carry him through. Coric in 4: 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6.

Cheryl: It’s a battle of the “Next Gens.” Coric beat Medvedev in their only previous match in round-robin play at the ATP’s Next Gen Finals at the end of 2017. While Medvedev was sent packing in the second round in s’Hertogenbosch and Queen’s Club, Coric went about the business of winning Halle–taking out Federer in the process. Though Federer wasn’t exactly hitting with the precision of a Swiss time piece, it’s still a feat to beat him on grass. Coric in 4: 6-4, 6-3, 6-7, 6-2.

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(17) Lucas Pouille vs. (WC) Denis Kudla

Ricky: Facing a wild card ranked 83rd in the world does not look to bad on paper for Pouille. But the Frenchman will know as well as anyone that this could be a rough one. Kudla is well-known as a grass-court specialist, with a fourth-round performance at Wimbledon in 2015 and a recent semifinal run in Halle among his accolades. Pouille, meanwhile, is 5-9 in his last 14 tournament matches. Based on the surface and current form, the upset alert should be sounded. Kudla in 5: 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2.

Cheryl: Kudla came through qualies in Halle and eventually found himself opposite Federer in the semis. He lost to Fed, but he made the world No. 2 work for the win. Pouille advanced to the semis in Stuttgart but crashed out in the Halle first round at the hands of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Kudla is ranked 83rd in the world to Pouille’s No. 20, yet I smell an upset here. I give the edge to the American, whose form is more impressive at the moment. Kudla in 4: 4-6, 7-5, 7-6, 6-3.

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