U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nishikori

A relatively surprising bottom-half U.S. Open semifinal will pit Stan Wawrinka against Kei Nishikori on Friday. Nishikori is coming off a five-set victory over Andy Murray. The winner of this match will battle either Novak Djokovic or Gael Monfils for the title.

Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time at the U.S. Open when they battle for a place in the title match on Friday.

Wawrinka is leading the head-to-head series 3-2, but he has lost two of their last three encounters dating back to the quarterfinals of this event in 2014. That one certainly did not disappoint, as Nishikori picked up a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 6-7(5), 6-4 victory on the way to his first and so far only Grand Slam final appearance. Interestingly, all of their other four matchups ended in straight sets–including a 7-6(6), 6-1 decision in Nishikori’s favor earlier this summer in Toronto.

It has been full speed ahead for Japan’s top player since finishing runner-up to Novak Djokovic in Toronto, as he captured the bronze medal at the Rio Olympics and now finds himself in the U.S. Open semis. Nishikori booked his spot in the last four by beating Benjamin Becker, Karen Khachanov, Nicolas Mahut, Ivo Karlovic, and Andy Murray. The world No. 7 was especially impressive in a straight-set beatdown of Karlovic and a 1-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 triumph over Andy Murray on Wednesday afternoon.

Nishikori in Atlanta

Wawrinka is on a second life of sorts in Flushing Meadows. The third-ranked Swiss came within one point of crashing out in round three but he staved off defeat in the fourth set against Dan Evans and eventually prevailed 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-6(8), 6-2. He has also taken out Fernando Verdasco, Alessandro Giannessi, Illya Marchenko, and Juan Martin Del Potro. Wawrinka is a respectable 37-12 this year, but he has not reached a final since Geneva in mid-May and he was just 5-5 in his last 10 matches prior to the U.S. Open.

“It’s going to be interesting, for sure,” the No. 3 seed said. “We (have) played many times against each other. I saw him play [against Murray]; he was playing really well. It’s going to be tough match. We will see also how I’m going to feel physically in two days to get ready for that.”

When healthy, which he is right now, Nishikori has never had physical problems dealing with tough matches. Two summers ago, for example, he won consecutive five-setters against Milos Raonic and Wawrinka before upsetting Djokovic in the semis. Based on current form, the way Nishikori handled his 2014 semifinal, and the fact that he is 5-0 lifetime against top-1o opponents at this event, he should have an ever-so-slight edge.

Pick: Nishikori in 5

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100 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Wawrinka vs. Nishikori

  1. Wawa was not impressive in this USO..he should have lost to Edmund but got lucky cause Ed choked big…

    I will also go with Nishi! After all he was able to beat No2 in the world wereas CryBabe didn’t have to do much against an injured Olympic silver medalist…

    Nishi in 4!

  2. This is a tough one. I don’t think Stan played great tennis to beat Delpo who hit a wall. But he has done well to hang in there and get to the semis. I think he’s going to have to play better against Nishi.

    Nishi should be feeling great after his big win against Murray. I thought he played some outstanding tennis and showed real mental strength in refusing to go away after being down two sets to one. He just beat the hottest player in the game. Can he keep it up and come into this match with momentum and also produce the quality of tennis that he did against Murray? He appears to be healthy now, but it’s not easy to take out top players back-to-back.

    I am liking Nishi’s chances in this one. It should be a great match. I can see it going four or five sets with Nishi edging it out for the win.

  3. I’m edging towards Nishikori in five. He was unbelievable yesterday .Agree about Delpo running out of gas. The conditions were humid which would suit Stan better.

    But, if Nish does win, he’ll run out of gas himself for the final .

    • The worry is for Nishi to get injured during the match or worse, after beating Stan. It’ll be over for him for the benefit of the other finalist. The same worry goes for Monfils too!

      I think the two fittest guys ie Stan and Djoko will prevail to face off each other in the final.

    • I doubt Nishi is the clear favorite. Stan is not Murray; he’ll consistently pressure Nishi with his heavy ground strokes deep into the corners, not allowing Nishi to come forward too often. Its not easy to take Stan’s groundstrokes early, as Djoko had often shown vs Stan, having to go five sets in four of their five slam encounters.

  4. If Nishi wins in 5, we will have the final something like USO2014. I’m not wishing for a final like that. Nishi is lightweight, it takes a lot out of him to beat fellow top ten-ners or I should say to beat top five-rs; its Murray’s ups and downs that caused his own downfall, giving Nishi chances to raise his own level in set 4 and 5.

    Stan has heavy artillery, and will impose his game on anyone. When he gets to the business end of things he usually will put up good fights – like vs Djoko at AO2014/15 and USO2013, FO2015 for examples.

    • This is the concern I have with Nishi. If he gets through to a final, then he has nothing left. It is a tall order to beat Murray, Stan and Novak. I don’t see Nishi doing it. I sure don’t want to see another final like the one in 2014. That was awful to watch. Nishi ran out of gas.

      Now I am wondering if I should switch my pick to Stan. I usually don’t go back and forth when it comes to the latter stages of slams. Can Nishi take out the #2 and #3 players back-to-back? I don’t know.

      If Stan can crsnk it up a notch, then I think he can pull out the win. I think it’s going to be very close. Four or five sets for sure.

      • yeah I an all for Stan being in the final. As for being the favourite, Nishi is currently playing better and that’s it… otherwise, stan’s brand of tennis is so imposing and if he is feeling the ball well, so hard to contain him.

        • vr,

          I basically agree with you. That’s why I am having trouble making a pick. Nishi is playing better tennis at this time. I don’t know that Murray’s loss was all about him. He did have some uncharacteristic DF’s in crucial moments of the match. But Nishi also used the drop shot to good effect and was able to even out hit Murray in some of the rallies. He was taking the ball early and hitting his groundstrokes with power and accuracy. Andy just could not shake him off.

          However, Stan does have that power game and he is capable of dictating points. I did say thst I think Stan will have to play better if he wants to beat Nishi. We have not seen the best from Stan yet. He has shown that he can raise his level of play when he gets to the latter stages of a slam. That is what he will need to do to win against Nishi playing some if his best tennis right now.

  5. Stan in 4. It’s what has already been said; Nishikori won’t have the gas to defeat Murray (5 sets) and Stan within a few days. Stan Always raises his level towards the end of a slam and will hit Nishi of the court for sure

  6. For a competitive final Stan is the Man. Lucky Star is right re. Andy Murray – he was the architect of his own loss. (Kudos obviously to Kei for hanging in and getting the win)..but Kei is not known for his stamina going forward.

  7. Cleary a tossup, I feel Stan always lets me down, but I simply cannot pick against him given that he simply imposes his game on ppl who may not be in the peak physical condition. Stan in 4.. 7-5 6-7 6-4 7-5

  8. I still can’t believe Stan was asked such a rubbish question first up in his presser post his QF win:

    “Q: I wonder what motivates you? You won two slams, you are very rich, you’ll never catch Federer, Nadal, Djokovic number of trophies, but anyone knows on a good day you beat them. So frankly, I think that one more slam will not change much. What makes you work? What makes you…
    STAN WAWRINKA: So what should I do? (Smiling.) I’m 31 years old. What do you want me to do? Just go to the beach? Not do anything? I don’t know. Did you ask that question to Rafa also or to Novak or to Andy?
    I think I love my sport. I enjoy to play tennis. It’s my passion. I start when I was really young. I have the chance to play in front of amazing crowd playing amazing match like tonight. If you just look the match tonight you have the answer. It’s amazing feeling to be out there.”

  9. Two-handed backhand owns one-handed…. never agree with people who say stan’s backhand is the best in the game… naaa… best one-handed backhand, yeah but it falls short against the best two-handed backhands

    • One handers can be spectacular when they are ON. But 2 handed bhs, agree are more reliable and consistent. Kei is just playing solid tennis, maintaining great court position, nothing flashy. just winning so far. But I’m waiting for Stan to make a move…

      • you got two points totally right…. another very imp point is that it FAR easier to force the one-handed backhand to play a slice…simply stretch him wide with a good angled shot…. With double handed backhand their reach is sick esp when they play with an open stance….that’s djokovic’s biggest strength from the basseline. Same for Rafa esp in his prime.

        • But I don’t like Kei v Nole. Kei will get slaughtered. I’d rather see Stan show us something stanimal tonight and have Nole v Stan — much more exciting, imo. Stan or Kei winning US Open would be cool.

          • rc,

            I agree with you. Nishi will have nothing left and the final will be one-sided. I want Stan to bring his power game and at least make match of it and challenge Novak.

  10. These two are playing high level tennis! Very entertaining! I am beginning to fall for Kei! His aggressive tennis is beautiful to watch!

    • Yeah, most likely Kei having problems with the heat and humidity.,,however, Wawa did raise his level and deseved to win this set.,.BTW, I really dislike this Wawa pointing at his head like he wants to say “am I smart or what..” It’s ridiculous…
      Poor Kei…had so many chances in the second and lost it…

    • Brad Gilbert said that the humidity is in the 70’s % even now. That is high. More like southern Florida where I live.

      BG also said that he thinks nishi
      Is feeling the effects of his previous five set match now.

      Stan cranked it up late in the second set with some great shots to even it up. Stan also seems to be the more physically fit right now.

      Stan is starting to impose that power game in a Nishi who may be running out of gas.

  11. Hope this ends in 4 now! Don’t want to see the winner fading away in the final…either one of them stands no chance vs Nole…both are making way too many errors, Nishi unable to convert break points and being punished for it…

  12. Boy is Stan hitting the ball big. Let’s go Stanimal!! Man why the hell didn’t I go biased with my fav player (who’s in the tourney) and pick him to win this thing lol. Cuz I think he’s gonna win it. I mean I’d rather him win and I don’t pick him to than lose and I pick him to but still. Don’t really care that much it’s just funny I always go with Roger and Stan making deep runs and I didn’t this time. Still I like NK and Del Po too so picking them to make run was maybe involving some bias as well. Anyways what matters is Stan is playing great and this is a fantastic semifinal. Great match. Much better tennis than the first semi. I honestly think Stan is gonna win this thing. Let’s go Stan!!

    • And by win this thing I mean I think he’s gonna take the title. He’s gotta get this match first but I think he will get it and the next match.

      • Holy crap I frickin wrote this on that “burning questions for the ATP world tour in 2016” posted last year: “I have a feeling Stan will make final somewhere. To be specific I guess I’ll go with a different one this year. U.S. Open. I’m thinking he reaches final and plays one of big four. Whether he wins I don’t know. It’s too early to tell whether Stan will be in good form heading in so this is just kind of going out on a limb. Anyways I’ll go bold and say Stan the man takes the U.S. Open or at least another slam next year.” I was right but changed my mind on my picks for the tourney cuz his form was pretty mediocre heading in?. Anyways that’s a great start for Stan he’s up 3-0 now. His backhand is just wicked. Love watching him play. He seems so much more positive and clutch now that he’s won two slams. Really stepping up his level in the big moments of this semifinal. Woohoo Stan!! ???

  13. Fallen asleep during first two sets of this SF; woke up to see Stan leading and he’s one game away from the win now. Stan’s BH is really a thing of beauty, yet lethal, what a combination!

    I think it will be Stan the Man in the final; he can beat Djoko, Monfils and Nishi cant.

  14. Yes Stan wins! Well done! Hope he wins his third slam here, that will be something – I mean if he can do it, that means he’s 3 for 3 in finals, and has been winning one slam a year for three straight years! Impressive in his own way; Stan has become a big match player these days and he’s smart enough to concentrate on winning the slams more than winning the smaller tour events.

  15. I read somewhere that one crazy journalist asked Stan a question about what he’s aiming for playing tennis now when he can never be like Fed, Rafa and Djoko. Stan was calm in his response, when he asked in return – what he expect Stan himself to do? To go to the beach everyday to relax, at age 31? Stan said he enjoys playing tennis and has learned tennis from young.

    I mean that journalist, is he for real? So if you’re not Fed/Rafa/Djoko, you shouldnt be playing tennis?? Then what about Murray, Kei or even Monfils? They all should be quitting soon as they are not going to be like the ATG trio?

    Stan makes a good living out of tennis, he earns some good endorsement money too esp after winning his slams. Why must he think of quitting? No wonder Stan mentioned Fed and Rafa being great champions in his on court interview; must be feeling hurt being treated in that manner by that particular stupid journalist.

    Anyway Kei is making tons of money from sponsorship when he hasnt won any thing big but has become famous when he’s in top ten.

    • Writers ask questions that they think will lead to a good quote, not because they want to know the answer. Agree with your points though. They apply to Monfils too. Monfils is a very popular player and I expect he makes a very good living doing his thing. What tournament wouldn’t want him there? Guaranteed to fill some seats.

      Kei is a huge star in Japan and was famous there long before he made the top ten.

  16. I had a feeling the match would go down pretty much the way it did. Kei had a really tough semifinal v Murray, and he seems a little fragile compared to the other top guys.

    The final should be interesting. I don’t think Stan will be tired and Novak is clearly not at his best and does not intimidate Stan. Stan may get his 3rd slam of the 4, but it’ll be a really cold day in the nether regions before he wins Wimbledon.

      • That was why I was struggling to make a prediction for this match. U.K. I knew that Stan was capable of winning if he could impose his power game. But Nishi was looking very good. I was concerned that he might hit a wall in this match.

        Stan has s better chance of defeating Novak. He hasn’t been able to play his best tennis this year, but when he’s on his game then we know he can best Novak.

        I do expect Novak to come out playing better in the final. If Stan can play well enough consistently in the final, then he has a chance to win. At least we should get a decent final.

        It was just nice to see two players come out and give it their best in this semifinal. Even though Nishi was feeling the effects of his tough five setter against Murray, he still kept on fighting.

        Good for both guys!

  17. So with Nishi’s loss, is Rafa no.4 in the rankings? Nishi now will have 4875 points, whilst Rafa 4940 but they include the 90 pts from BA thus counting 7 instead of 6 250/500 events, strange.

    I hope Rafa stays in top 4 for the sake of his seedings in the coming Masters events.

    • Luckystar (AT 3:41 AM),

      They are counting Buenos Aires instead of the Canada Masters because Rafa was allowed to skip the latter. (ATP Rulebook, page 196.) He is allowed to skip two Masters during this season.

      • I thought they are allowed only 6 countable 250/500 events?

        Rafa will be no.4 if they include his BA points. No.4 is better for him of course as he avoids the top 2 guys until the SF stage. Hopefully he’s able to reach the SF stage at least, he has many points to defend and to gain too so hopefully he remains in top 4 for the YE rankings.

        • Luckystar (AT 10:51 PM),

          As for the nearest future, retaining the No.4 spot until the Shanghai Masters doesn’t depend only on Rafa. Raonic and Nishi are not far behind Rafa in the reankings.
          Before the Shanghai Masters, Raonic is going to play in St. Petersburg (W in 2015) & Beijing (zero in 2015) and Nishi in Tokyo (SF in 2015).
          Rafa earned 300 points in Beijing last year. Rafa has to play before the Shanhgai Masters better than Raonic & Nishi do. 🙂

          Live rankings before the USO final:
          https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsEk4fmWEAAVgKN.jpg

          • Beijing and Tokyo ranking points not counted for Shanghai seeding as they’re the week before Shanghai, ie past the cut off date. Raonic is the defending champion at St Petersburg so he can only drop points should he fail to defend his title.

        • Luckystar (AT 10:51 PM),

          As for the countable events, the ATP Rulebook says:
          ¤¤ NOTE: A player who is eligible for a reduction of his ATP World Tour Masters 1000 commitment tournaments per Section 1.08 who withdraws prior to the withdrawal deadline and uses his exemption may have the number of his results from all other eligible tournaments in the ranking period, that count for his ranking, increased by one (1) for each milestone reached with a maximum of three (3).¤¤

  18. That’s the thing about Stan…no matter how poorly he is playing in the earlier rounds, he can find his game in the ending stages of a slam. His game is so imposing and he is so much self-belief as well.

    Based on the semis, Stan is the favourite. I don’t know what to say about Djokovic. If he plays like he did in the semi he’ll surely lose but we know he’ll raise his level.

    I don’t think his shoulder is that serious but at this level, even small issues can affect you because they can create doubts in your mind.

    Stan has pushed him to 5 sets at USO but this time he needs to win 3 sets.

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