Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Cilic

A rematch of a 2014 U.S. Open semifinal will take place on Wednesday at Wimbledon, when Roger Federer and Marin Cilic meet for the first time in almost two full years. A place in the semifinals is at stake.

Roger Federer and Marin Cilic will be squaring off for the first time since their surprising 2014 U.S. Open semifinal when they clash in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday.

Cilic memorably hammered Federer 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 at Flushing Meadows, a result that propelled him to his first and only Grand Slam title. Still, Federer owns a comfortable 5-1 lead in the head-to-head series having won all of their previous meetings from the Paris Masters in 2008 through the Rogers Cup in the summer of 2014. The two veterans have never faced each other on grass.

“That was definitely one of my best matches in the career,” Cilic said of the U.S. Open stunner. “You know, we haven’t played since then. That could be another good thing for me that I can just look back at that match and know what things I was doing really well.”

Although neither man is by any means a grass-court specialist, the surface and the setting should make for a particularly high-quality affair. Federer, of course, is a seven-time champion of this event and the door is open for an eighth title now that Novak Djokovic is out. The 34-year-old Swiss suffered semifinal losses in Stuttgart and Halle, but he has been in cruise-control mode this fortnight with straight-set defeats of Guido Pella, Marcus Willis, Daniel Evans, and Steve Johnson.
Fed 4
Cilic has now reached the last eight at the All-England Club on three consecutive occasions–even in 2015, when his overall year was a poor one by his lofty 2014 standards. The 13th-ranked Croat took care of Brian Baker, Sergiy Stakhovsky, and Lukas Lacko without any trouble before getting a second-set retirement from Kei Nishikori on Monday. Although the season has been a struggle for Cilic, Queen’s Club may have been a harbinger of things to come at Wimbledon because he scored three impressive victories there before pushing Andy Murray to three sets in the semis.

“I practiced with him when I arrived here at Wimbledon,” Federer said of Cilic. “He was playing great; 1‑2, 1‑2, 1‑2, serving, boom, forehand, serving, boom, backhand. He’s very aggressive. He blew me off the court at the U.S. Open. I know what I’m getting into. He’s really tough to play…. I’ve never seen him serve that consistently well (as he did in New York). He can clearly do it here at Wimbledon, too.”

But the chances of lightning striking twice are slim; after all, Cilic has never recaptured the same form that resulted in by far the most important moments of his career two summers ago. Furthermore, Federer–as usual–has improved with each passing round this fortnight and he called his performance against Johnson “by far my best match.” That sounds like bad news for Cilic.

Pick: Federer in 4

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72 Comments on Wimbledon QF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Cilic

  1. The thing with Fed supposedly looking so good, is that his draw has been insanely easy. Who was going to challenge him? Even Steve Johnson was never going to have a real chance. It’s easy to look good when you are playing guys who don’t have the game to make a match of it.

    Cilic is the first quality opponent Fed will face. He’s certainly got the game to take it to Fed. I don’t expect this one to go as routinely as his previous matches.

    Big servers have such an advantage on grass. Cilic has a chance here if he has that serve going. Fed will have to work for this one.

  2. Roger in four but he will need to be locked in. I think this is a good matchup for him unless Marin goes 2014 U.S. Open mode on him and I think he will be very focused and determined to make the semis.

  3. Old age = GG. Roger is 36+ now two years is a lot because the human body declined the fastest between 33yrs to 37yrs. Roger prob will still win but the level between those two is close

  4. I’m more worried about Marin ‘county’ Cilic & Milos ‘the sleevee’ Raonic at the moment tha

    Hoping that Roger can take care of these 2 and then gobble up the big fish (Muzz)!

  5. I have a feeling Federer will win it all. Still can’t believe Novak lost, and the only man I see stopping the Fed is Murray, but the matchup is in Fed’s favour on grass. Granted, he had a very favourable draw to work himself into form, but now he’s placed well in the second week, where you usually need to turn in a great performance to beat him.

  6. Fed is 34 years old. Will be 35 in August. Cilic will be his first quality opponent. Fed. will need to raise his game way above what we’ve seen up to now.

    Murray vs. Tsonga. Both are playing well. Tsonga really focused. This may go to 5 sets…Murray squeezing it out to win.

  7. I give slight edge to Maestro. Cilic playing well against an injured Nishi is not a clear indicator of Marin’s level..This one is on Fed’s racquet…unless Fed plays way bellow his usual second week level I expect Fed to win dropping one set maybe

    Fed in 4

  8. I’d agree Fed in four.This is second week of Wimbledon after all.Might be his last shot at the title,so experience will count.

  9. Cilic in 3. He is getting back to his best and Fed is 35. No one with the body of a 35 year old can compete with the top players.

  10. Federer’s serving & forecourt game especially volleying has been good so far. Now if he can get his baseline game to where it needs to be, he can definitely get the better of the remaining contenders left in the draw.

  11. Cilic in 4 or Fed in 4, depending on which version turns up to play (for both). If Cilic serves like USO2014 SF without faltering, then he wins; otherwise its Fed.

  12. Fed in 3, cilic could be a good pro but Fed is a maestro. Now that Novak is out we could only wait and see the outcome. Hope we see history of Fantastic Roger Re written….

  13. Federer in 3. Cilic hasn’t actually beaten anyone who’s anyone. Neither has Fed, but Fed is Fed and Cilic is Cilic. Federer should have the kinks worked out by now.

    Murray in 3, or possibly 4, if Tsonga’s in better shape than I think he is.

  14. Fed is +220 to win now after being down 5-3 in the 2nd set… He can’t break Cilic so I think backing the Croat at -278 is free money on a live play. 2014 deja vu for fed…

  15. Scroll up like I said yesterday it’s amazing that no one even considers that federers age is a big problem. All the signs are there. I mean come on man he even got knee surgery not too long ago. When you past 30years old the human body is already on a decline no matter what. At 34+ (same age as me) I can feel the physical decline myself. I used to be able to do 20 x 3 sets of pull ups and now I’m reduced to 14 12 10 with occasional injuries from stuff I did the past 15 years. Getting old fking sucks

  16. Oh my God. What a drama here. At 3-3 in the third Cilic has a 40-0 on Fed’s serve Fed defends all that and breaks Marin.

    My roar after Roger broke was like 150 dB 🙂

  17. I tuned in to see Cilic up two sets to one! Wow! I guess he came out ready to take it to Fed!

    Fed seems to be raising his level of play now in the fourth set. The crowd is firmly behind Fed, so Marin is going to have to stay strong.

  18. Amazing , yes, that people do not consider Fed’s age. It is a measure of his greatness I suppose that no one dares to write off his chances even though he is old and coming back from injuries.

  19. Fed is a genius. If this was 5 years ago, Fed would have beaten Cilic in straight sets. Fed can use Cilic’s power against Cilic!

    • Its obvious Fed is the better grass court player but right now its Cilic who’s letting Fed back into the match. Five years ago, ie in 2011 I doubt Fed was playing well when he lost to Tsonga in the QF being 2 sets up initially.

      I would say during Fed’s peak of say 2004-2007 but Cilic could win a set with that kind of serving.

    • I think it’s going to be tough for Cilic in the fifth set. Having all those chances and not getting it done.

      Fed has really turned back the hands of time. Coming up with the big serve and producing this quality of tennis at this point in his career, is just something to see.

      If Cilic wants to win this, he’s going to have to stay mentally strong and believe.

  20. What a stunning match! Three match points fended off by the Swiss!

    However, Cilic played amazingly. A stunning display of the Croat and he was really close to beat Fed.

    #Fedfor18thslam

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