Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

If it feels like Great Britain just won the Davis Cup, well…it did. Andy Murray and company lifted the trophy in late November and will be back in action this weekend—in early March—as the battle begins in the 2016 World Group. Among the countries also contesting opening-round ties are Japan, the United States, Australia, the Czech Republic, Germany, Croatia, and Belgium.

United States vs. Australia

Where: Melbourne, Australia
Surface: Grass
United States: John Isner, Jack Sock, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
Australia: Bernard Tomic, Sam Groth, John Peers, Lleyton Hewitt

Nick Kyrgios is out; Lleyton Hewitt is in. That’s right; the door is open for Hewitt to become a player-captain after Kyrgios was left off the team on Thursday because of both a back injury and a virus. Although the recently-retired Hewitt is now an official member of the Australian foursome, the more likely scenario is that Sam Groth will play both singles and doubles. No. 1 singles player Bernard Tomic is in fine form and generally loves grass, but he is making a quick turnaround following a runner-up performance on the hard courts of Acapulco.

Nobody on the American side is in particularly stellar form at the moment. Aside from a fourth-round performance at the Australian Open, John Isner has won only a single match in three tournaments. Jack Sock has not picked up a victory since the first round in Melbourne. Bob and Mike Bryan are without a title in four events this season and have lost their first match at two of the four. On an unfavorable surface away from home, Team USA could be in trouble.

Prediction: Australia 3, United States 1 (last rubber dead)

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Czech Republic vs. Germany

Where: Hannover, Germany
Surface: Indoor hard
Czech Republic: Tomas Berdych, Lukas Rosol, Radek Stepanek, Jiri Vesely
Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Alexander Zverev, Dustin Brown, Philipp Petzschner

Both countries have all of their top players on board. Germany owns home-court advantage, but the Czech Republic boasts a clear edge in experience. This tie has a little bit of everything: a 37-year-old (Radek Stepanek), an 18-year-old (Alexander Zverev), a villain (Lukas Rosol), and an up-and-coming hero (Zverev). It also has Dustin Brown. The result should be an extremely entertaining and competitive tie—perhaps the all-around best of the weekend.
Dustin Brown
Berdych and Stepanek led their nation to the Davis Cup title in both 2012 and 2013, but it is Rosol who will be joining Berdych in singles duty this weekend. Rosol will be an underdog in each of his rubbers, so Berdych may have to contribute to all three points if the visitors want to win. The world No. 7 is 28-14 lifetime in Davis Cup singles and 20-2 in doubles. Zverev, on other hand, has never played a match in this event.

Prediction: Germany 3, Czech Republic 2

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Croatia vs. Belgium

Where: Liege, Belgium
Surface: Indoor clay
Serbia
: Marin Cilic, Borna Coric, Ivan Dodig, Franko Skugor
Belgium: David Goffin, Ruben Bemelmans, Kimmer Coppejans, Arthur De Greef

Like Great Britain in 2015, Belgium benefited from a whole host of home ties to reach the final last fall. The Belgians even enjoyed home-court advantage at the final hurdle, but Murray and the visiting Brits proved to be too tough. David Goffin and friends are back at home in the 2016 first round (as is Great Britain, for that matter), but they face a tough test in the form of Croatia.

The question is where will the home team pick up a point aside from Goffin’s two singles rubbers. Based on current form and the clay-court surface, Goffin should be able to beat both Borna Coric and Marin Cilic. Croatia, however, will be favored in doubles thanks mostly to Ivan Dodig—one of the best doubles players in the world. Can either Ruben Bemelmans or Kimmer Coppejans manage to score a singles victory if Belgium loses the doubles rubber? It’s possible, but not likely.

Prediction: Croatia 3, Belgium 2

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Japan vs. Great Britain

Where: Birmingham, Great Britain
Surface: Indoor hard
Japan: Andy Murray, Kyle Edmund, Jamie Murray, Dominic Inglot
Great Britain: Kei Nishikori, Yoshihito Nishioka, Taro Daniel, Yasutaka Uchiyama

“I’m just here for Andy Murray vs. Kei Nishikori.” That’s what many tennis fans will be saying or thinking as it pertains to interest in this tie. Day one should be straightforward when the defending Davis Cup champions host Japan. Murray will cruise past Taro Daniel in the opening rubber before Nishikori likely makes mincemeat out of Daniel Evans. Either the Murray brothers or Jamie Murray and Dominic Inglot can be expected to dominate Saturday’s doubles match to give the host nation a 2-1 lead.

Kei

That would set the stage for a Murray-Nishikori showdown on Sunday, with Murray having a chance to send GBR to the quarterfinals. The second-ranked Scot went an unbelievable 11-0 in total rubbers last season and he is 34-7 lifetime in Davis Cup—including 27-2 in singles. His match against Daniel on Friday will help Murray shake off the rust after taking paternity leave throughout the month of February.

Prediction: Great Britain 3, Japan 1

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In other ties, Serbia hosts Kazakhstan, Italy hosts Switzerland, Poland hosts Argentina, and France hosts Canada.

Predictions: Serbia 3, Kazakhstan 0 – Italy 3, Switzerland 0 – Argentina 3, Poland 2 – France 3, Canada 0

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

199 Comments on Davis Cup first round previews and predictions

  1. Great Britain 3-1
    Belgium v Croatia – where’s Darcis? 3-2 Croatia.
    Australia v USA – 3-2
    Germany v Czech Republic – 3-2 Germany

  2. GB over Japan 3-1
    Australia over USA 3-2
    Serbia over Kazakhstan 3-0
    Italy over Switzerland 3-1
    Poland over Argentina 3-1
    Germany over Czech Republic 3-2
    Croatia over Belgium 3-2
    I’ll do France vs Canada when they make official lineup.

  3. 00:00 Australia (31/20) V USA (2/3) BEST ODDS
    12:00 Czech Republic (1/2) V Germany (13/8) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Belgium (11/4) V Croatia (3/10) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Great Britain (1/4) V Japan (3/1) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Italy (1/20) V Switzerland (12/1) BEST ODDS
    13:00 Kazakhstan (9/1) V Serbia (1/16) BEST ODDS
    13:30 Argentina (1/3) V Poland (11/4) BEST ODDS
    15:00 Canada (10/1) V France (1/20)

    https://www.easyodds.com/online-betting/tennis/international/davis-cup-odds

    #YoureWelcome

    • Oh, you must have seen what I posted above already 🙂
      Pretty dumb if in reality I took Canada.

      But in our the virtual unit game…

  4. OK here’s the Davis Cup game:

    200 units. Have to put at least 10 on each tie. Whoever has the most units at the end of the weekend wins.

    Odds:

    USA (2 to 3) over Australia (3 to 2)
    Czech Republic (1 to 2) over Germany (13 to 8)
    Croatia (3 to 10) over Belgium (11 to 4)
    Great Britain (1 to 4) over Japan (3 to 1)
    Italy (1 to 20) over Switzerland (12 to 1)
    Serbia (1 to 16) over Kazakhstan (9 to 1)
    Argentina (1 to 3) over Poland (11 to 4)
    France (1 to 20) over Canada (10 to 1)

    My picks:

    10 France
    10 Argentina
    10 Serbia
    10 Italy
    10 Belgium
    80 Great Britain
    40 Germany
    30 Australia

  5. Wow. This will be tough. I’m not much for doubles tennis…
    Haven’t looked at all the match-ups yet but, seeing as Aussie gets under way any minute, I’ll make that one now.

    Aus 10 units.

  6. I am essentially banking on Tomic to win twice and then Groth to somehow beat Isner. If Isner wins tonight I’d say the Aussies are in trouble.
    As a side note, if anyone is actually a bettor, Isner/Groth o43.5 looks solid tonight.

  7. Waffling over how to divvy it up!
    25 units for Australia – since the they are scheduled to start in a few minutes. Losing confidence in them.

    • Could prove to be a very wise pick. Poor Groth.
      I want to pick Belgium but I don’t trust their doubles team or Kimmer Coppejans. Want to pick Poland too but can’t trust their singles nominee’s.

    • You could be right!
      John is much better than I expected. He’s looking good. John wins this and it will put pressure on Bernard next match – not sure how he’ll deal with that.

    • I’m watching, ed 🙂 Looks absolutely miserable out there. Tomic needs to break back in the next game if possible.

  8. Tomic being a touch complacent in the opening games of 3rd set. Sock has got Tomic on the back foot now.

    Nearly didn’t recognise Courier in casual wear!

  9. here goes…
    10 Great Britain
    10 Serbia
    10 Italy
    10 France
    10 Croatia
    10 Agentina (If Jerzy was there I’d pick Poland at home and on the strength of Kubot/Matkowski dubs — but Przysiezny is coming off injury and I have no clue who Hurkacz is)
    115 Germany
    25 Australia

    All in for Dreddy and Sascha

  10. Let’s go John!! He cruised. Groth hasn’t been playing well this season but with the home crowd I expected a better match. Looks like I could be right about Tomic an Isner getting wins so it’s all square after day one. Pretty surprised I’ve got a good shot at getting those picks right.

      • I was going to put the max amount on Germany but went with the favourite instead.

        However home court advantage may be the difference. Should be a good tie for sure.

  11. Wow. Kohlschreiber and Rosol have been locked in a battle. In the 5th set now. Come on Kohls!

    Tennis channel showing the beatdown: Murray and Taro.

  12. Can’t believe Le Rosol is taking Kohls to a 5th set.

    Bonus for me if he wins! Should have picked Germany (more fun to cheer against Stepanek and Le Rosol). Oh well.

    Vamos Le Rosol!

    Do you? Or don’t you.

    #TGHeresy

  13. Good stream here if you know where (and where not) to click.

    (click on the very small x to clear the screen, not the more obvious ones.)

  14. Wow chiudinelli is playing an epic with Lorenzi it was two sets to love Lorenzi and chiudinelli came back but just lost two match points up 5-4 in the final set and was up 5-3 this set. Crap. C’mon Marco!!

  15. Oh my gosh really. He went from match point to now going to lose the match. C’mon man. The comeback was great though. C’mon Marco fight!!

  16. The debutante playing like a veteran in his first DC. The problem for Zev Minor is he has never played a five-setter. Cant believe he will be able to stay the course.

    • Such a great atmosphere for the debutante, ed 😀
      And acquitting himself quite well – win or lose here.

      Kukushkin straight sets Troicki, oh my.
      Goffin better finish of Born Again in 4, if at all possible. Coric appears to be getting stronger as the match wears on and he looks bigger than ever.

  17. Lorenzi won 🙁 Poor Chewy.
    Phew. Nishikori made it in 3. Tough match.

    Watching a bad live stream for Germany v Czech Rep. I recognize that band from Czech Fed Cup 😀 they are good. Appreciate them after watching USA v Aus.

    Sascha serving at 5-4 for 3rd set. What a fighter he’s been!! He makes it! hehehe 2 sets Germany 1 set CR. It’s not over!

    • Dan Evans has always stepped up to the plate for DC. He thrives on the challenge but you rarely see him play at that level on the ATP circuit. Nishi had his work cut out..

  18. Kids ruined any preparation I could have put into the betting game. Sorry folks.

    I did watch the Kohl-Rosol match and the Goffin-Coric match this morning. It never ceases to amaze how Kohl’s level can drop off and return, seemingly at will.
    Hard to figure what is wrong with Coric – bit of a sophomore slump I think. He almost broke in those first two Goffin service games, failed, and then seemed to give up.
    I do love this website and the previews you guys put together. Keep it up.

    • Ricky is the best. Thanks Btw.

      Richtig, das gut…love German commentator’s because I sort of understand but not entirely. But I can’t see the picture – just have sound. I wonder if Sascha is starting to wear out in this 4th set?

  19. Correction. It’s his third five set match. Berdych looking somewhat bemused by the resistance he is encountering. And he was not at all pleased at receiving a baguette in the 2nd set

  20. The Swiss are really playing well right now. It could easily be 1-0 them right now. Laaksonen was up a break but lost the lead so now he’s tied in the second after losing the first 7-5 to seppi. Bit of a shame if they go down 0-2 after today. Hope Laaksonen gets the upset here and they get the tie for the upset. Really sad chiudinelli lost with two MPs. I think both were unforced errors too. Not sure though I was watching live scores as I’m at school right now. Wish I could be home watching. Berdych and Zverev are locked in a really great match.

  21. Davis Cup is great as is.

    If some don’t want to play, so be it.

    Like Apple, it just works.

    (Still don’t understand where all the revenue goes though. Best kept secret in tennis.)

    • I have a subscription to the ITF Davis Cup live streaming. At €50 a year it is expensive but they cover every match being played. Wouldn’t miss DC for anything. Only problem is there is no catch-up so I am housebound for the duration and in need of uppers and downers to stay the course.

  22. MatchSet 1Set 2Set 3Set 4Set 5Dur.: 4:20
    AZGER CZETB: AZev’s numbers are on the left and Berd’s on the right
    Aces 18 17
    Double Faults 10 6
    1st Serve %97/167 (58%) 102/187 (54%)
    1st Serve Points Won 75/97 (77%) 77/102 (75%)
    2nd Serve %60/70 (85%) 79/85 (92%)
    2nd Serve Points Won 37/60 (61%) 37/79 (46%)
    Break Points Won 6/16 (37%) 4/10 (40%)
    Total Winners 32 28
    Forehand Winners 17 20
    Backhand Winners 13 4
    Net Points Won 2/2 (100%) 4/7 (57%)
    Forced Errors 40 52
    Unforced Errors 74 77
    Total Points Won 185 169
    Fastest 1st Serve 223km/h / 138mph 219km/h / 136mph
    Average 1st Serve 208km/h / 129mph 201km/h / 125mph
    Fastest 2nd Serve 199km/h / 124mph 173km/h / 107mph
    Average 2nd Serve 178km/h / 110mph 162km/h / 100mph

    At first I was assuming the better numbers were for Berdych but they are not.

  23. It has started: Germany v Czech Republic Doubles match!
    Oh no.
    They brought in their biggest guns. Berdych is in – Vesely out. Kohls is in – Dustin Brown out.

  24. Admittedly Nishikori is the highest ranked player Murray has facedi n DC for don’t know how many years but it still came as a shock to see him drop two consecutive sets.

    The battle of wills commences. It may still come down to Dan Evans to rescue GB.

    • If it does Evans will probably win. They should put Nishioka in if it goes the distance in this tie in my opinion.

  25. Holy crap!! Berdych lost then Zverev got a set’s worth of games off of Rosol?! Are you kidding me?? That’s like the total opposite of clutch. I can’t even believe that happened.

  26. I couldn’t watch it. Can’t watch Kei lose to anyone, not even Nole.

    Never thought Andy would lose. Congrats Great Britian. And Serbia. Nole toughed it out v Kukushkin in 5 sets!

    • Djokovic may have toughed out but he hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory this weekend. He has Troicki to thank for saving the day,

      Intrigued to see Goffin got the better of Cilic. Another deciding fifth rubber coming up.

      • It’s over. Borna-gain over Coppejans in straights. 🙁

        I didn’t exactly see anything but live score since I refuse to watch Kei lose and Tennis Channel was focused on that match. Tried to watch a little of Kohls v Berdych and some of Rosol v Sascha – but I lost a laptop streaming that way and if too many messages pop up, I shut it down quick.

        Doesn’t surprise me too much that someone like Kukushkin would swing freely and go for broke, if that’s what happened. But I don’t know what happened. Have not read any first-hand accounts yet. Prefer it if Nole didn’t play at all but guessing that wasn’t an option.

    • Kukushkin was playing Stan-like tennis and had Djokovic on the ropes for quite some time. Nobody expected a 5-set win

  27. I admit to not following the DC matches. But it’s quite surprising to come here and see that it took Novak five sets to beat the likes of Kukushkin!

    • Troicki has won 2 sets and is up a break in the 3rd; it appears he will beat Nedovyesov. But I’ll believe it when I see it on live score. It’s dangerous to be too certain with Victor at the end stage of a match.

  28. For those who are wondering how Kukushkin pushed Nole to five, Mikhail played great but Nole hit 96 unforced errors. The Simon match all over again.

    • Wow, Benny, thanks. Dodged a bullet then. I should look at the stats but have been watching Troiki’s score. Serbia made it through. Not sure that’s the greatest thing for Nole’s summer schedule!

      • I’ve been pondering that also.
        The July–September schedule spanning Wimbledo. Davis Cup, Olympics and USO is so tightly packed there’s barely time to get from one venue to another.

        • Something has to give, ed. I keep falling back on what Nole said about FO and Olympics being his priorities. Also, I keep in mind that like last year, if the first doesn’t work out, the goal posts will get moved. With Andy, I don’t know. But they are still the top 2 and the strongest, as we saw at AO.

          Kei can be such a mentally strong opponent. That’s one of the reasons I love Gilles Simon, too. And respect to Mikhail Kukushkin for being aggressive and going after Nole.

          I’m not expecting the IW – Miami double this year after his bad luck in Dubai with his eyes and now this. Only hoping for him to pace himself well, stay healthy and go as deep as he can at both tournaments. This season is going to be a long one.

          • IW-Miami double very possible though. Would not be surprising to see him do it again. I hope he doesn’t but he’s the big favorite at both of course. Can’t wait for those tournies.

          • It applies to all the teams with star players. To make matters worse the ITF introduced an iniquitous new rule designed to force players to take part in DC in the Olympic year – if asked. The only way to protect them from being suspended from the Olympic team for non compliance is for the team captain not to ask them to play DC in the first place. The ITF are only interested in pursuing their own agenda – the welfare of their most valuable asset i.e. the players is the least of their concerns.

          • ed251137 (AT 10:52 PM),

            The rule is:
            ¤¤ 1. ELIGIBILITY TO COMPETE AND CONDITIONS OF COMPETING [at Rio 2016]
            …[A player] is part of the final nominated Davis/Fed Cup team at the time of the Draw, and is present at the tie, on a minimum of three (3) occasions in the 4-year Olympic cycle (from the conclusion of the 2012 Olympic Tennis Event until the beginning of the 2016 Olympic Tennis Event), provided that one of those occasions is in either 2015 or 2016. ¤¤
            http://www.itftennis.com/media/198113/198113.pdf

    • Benny,

      Thanks for the update on how Kukushkin pushed Novak to five sets! Wow! Another ugly error fest like Simon! Who would have thought it could happen again.

        • hahaha BigELEVENWatto 😀

          Do you think there’s any chance (a wager on it?) that Ricky will have time for us? As in, we get a virtual unit game for Indian Wells? Or, will he be too tied up at IN and OUT Burger?
          do you?
          don’t you?

          • No, I don’t.

            I suspect the latter based on his first two pool finishes.

            haha!

            Mmmmm, In and Out Burger, I’ve never had the privilege sadly but have heard good things. Steak’n’Shake is pretty good though.

          • Only had the experience once when visiting in San Jose, Ca. It wasn’t anything great but Ricky’s not the only one I’ve heard say they love it.

            I’ll send my drone down there to keep an eye on things.
            Found the in and mostly OUT Burger in La Quinta – close proximity to Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
            ? ?

            TC live – Maria’s is speaking now. She failed a drug test at the AO…no kidding. Meldonium? Used for 10 years using legally. She’s taking full responsibility for it but did not know it was banned. That’s a brave, honest admission. Kudos to Maria.

            Have to look up Meldonium (sp) Meldronot? Not approved by FDA or ITF. Banned by WDA January 1.

            She lists reasons why she was taking it but it’s still unclear exactly what the drug is. Going to go search for it.

            Pardon me for being on the wrong thread with this. I’m watching it live…

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