Rio de Janeiro R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Fognini vs. Andujar

Rafael Nadal will be back in Rio de Janeiro action on Thursday for a second-round date with Pablo Carreno Busta. Fabio Fognini and Pablo Andujar are also trying to claim a spot in the quarterfinals.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Playing his first match since an Australian Open quarterfinal loss to Tomas Berdych, Nadal kicked off his Rio Open campaign on Tuesday with a 6-4, 6-1 victory over Thomaz Bellucci. The third-ranked Spaniard dropped serve twice in the opening set without saving a break point, but he raised his level in the second to finish the job in one hour and 31 minutes. Nadal is now 6-0 lifetime in Rio having won the inaugural event in 2014.

Up next for the top seed is a first-ever meeting with Carreno Busta on Thursday. The 55th-ranked Spaniard got his week started by holding off Carlos Berlocq 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-0. Carreno Busta is a mediocre 3-4 on the year and he is coming off an opening-round loss in Sao Paulo to Joao Souza. Unfortunately for the underdog, he does not have the necessary weapons to overpower Nadal–even though his two-handed backhand can be dangerous. With a decent match already under his belt, an increasingly comfortable Nadal should cruise into the quarters.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(4) Fabio Fognini vs. Pablo Andujar

Fognini and Andujar will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers and for the third time at the ATP level. All four of their previous encounters (all on clay) have gone Fognini’s way and he has never lost a single set to Andujar. However, two of their meetings came on the Futures circuit back in 2005 and they have faced each other only once since 2009. Fognini most recently prevailed 6-4, 6-3 last year in Buenos Aires.

A much better opportunity should await Andujar on Thursday. The 50th-ranked Spaniard is off to a slow start this season, but he seems to play well in Rio. He reached the semifinals in 2014, lost to Nadal 12-10 in the third-set tiebreaker, and overcame Paolo Lorenzi 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 on Tuesday. A slumping Fognini, meanwhile, faced three match points in his opener against Jiri Vesely but stormed back for a 1-6, 7-6(7), 6-1 win. Although it was an impressive fightback by the 28th-ranked Italian, he needed some significant help from Vesely.

Pick: Andujar in 3

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67 Comments on Rio de Janeiro R2 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Carreno Busta, Fognini vs. Andujar

  1. There we go. We didn’t see vintage Rafa tonight, but we did see some great stuff from Carreno Busta and that’s good news for the future. 2-0 is a good win for Rafa considering how the match played out. Toughed it out against a very dangerous and confident opponent.

  2. OOP for tomorrow:

    Not Before 3:30 pm
    Juan Monaco (ARG)
    v
    [2] David Ferrer (ESP)
    H2H
    [WC] Joao Souza (BRA)
    v
    Andreas Haider-Maurer (AUT)
    H2H
    [4] Fabio Fognini (ITA)
    v
    Federico Delbonis (ARG)
    H2H
    Rafael Nadal (ESP) OR Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP)
    v
    [6] Pablo Cuevas (URU)
    ATP

  3. Still trying to fathom out why Rafa made such heavy weather of this match. PCB deserves full credit for making Rafa work for the win. But jeeez, blowing match points against an inexperienced player, even if he was brimming with confidence, doesn’t bode well.

  4. How do people rate Cuevas’ chances against Rafa then? Can anyone remember the last time Cuevas lost a match on clay?! I doubt he can, which could help him out tomorrow.

  5. I think Rafa did alright. Just got his serve broken once in the whole match. There were a few forehand errors but he did not have to raise his level at all the whole match

  6. Cuevas, another one Rafa has never played before. I expect a tight match, Rafa trying to figure out Cuevas’s game.

    Rafa for the win.

  7. I think this match was good for Rafa. Carenno Busta didn’t quit and hung in there to make it a match. Rafa didn’t play well in that first set and his serving wasn’t great either. But he managed to take the set. I thought Rafa played better in the second set and served much better. But Carenno Busta stayed with him.

    It’s always on Rafa’s racket when it’s clay, but I do think that this guy Cuevas will give Rafa a match. The tennis channel commentators have been going on about him and his hot streak for the last two days. It can be tricky when Rafa faces someone he’s never played before, but I expect Rafa to get a read on him and get the win.

    I voted for 8-10 games for the match against Carreno Busta. He won 8 games. This time I am not sure, but I again voted for Rafa winning losing 8-10 games.

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