Shanghai SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

Djoker 1Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will be squaring off for the 36th time in their careers when they renew their rivalry in the semifinals of the Shanghai Rolex Masters.

The head-to-head series could be all tied up at 18-17 by the end of play on Saturday, and that will become a reality if Djokovic takes care of business as a slight favorite and maintains his Asian domination. Djokovic has won five of their last seven meetings, including a victory in their most recent and one of their most significant matches. In this summer’s Wimbledon final, the Serb triumphed 6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4.

While this Asian swing is never the most important time of year, it is arguably Djokovic’s favorite. The world No. 1 just improved to 24-0 lifetime in Beijing with his fifth straight title there and he is the two-time defending champion in Shanghai. So far this week, Djokovic has defeated Dominic Thiem, Mikhail Kukushkin, and David Ferrer.

Like his opponent, Federer has also dropped one set en route to the semis. The 33-year-old Swiss saved five match points in an opening win over Leonardo Mayer before beating Roberto Bautista Agut and Julien Benneteau.

“I think we always play tough against each other,” Federer noted. “I think we’re both in good shape right now. We both enjoy playing here in Shanghai. He’s playing a great season again. I think I have a good game at the moment. I really hope I can come up with some good shotmaking and solid play because that’s what it’s going to require against him. There are not that many secrets out there. We’ve played each other too many times at this point.”

Federer will give himself a chances if he plays consistently aggressive and serves as well as he did against Benneteau (77 percent, 11 aces, no double-faults) but it is borderline foolish to ever pick against Djokovic in Asia.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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41 Comments on Shanghai SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. This is a hard one, even though Novak is formidable at this event and throughout the fall hard court season. I do think that Fed has a shot at the win. It’s best two out of three and that’s easier than trying to beat Novak in a best three out of five set slam match.

    I expect this to go three sets and it should be a good one. I just can’t go against Novak here, but I would not be shocked if Fed manages to pull out a win.

    • ^^This was a typo, clearly……..meant to say Fed in 2 but of course.

      Here is another typo: Simon for the win tomorrow……….

  2. Djokovic’s camp dont look very relaxed 🙂 He has his group of supporters chanting but the overwhelming support is for Federer.

  3. This hold by novak could be the turning point of the match. That backhand cross court pass to save break points was out of the world. That was much like rafa’s sick backhand passing shots

  4. NNY: You were right – Federer gave Djokovic more than a run more for his money. He stole his wallet out of his back pocket 😀

    • ed,

      Thanks for that! I just came online to see the result! I forgot to record the match, so I will wait for the replay later on the tennis channel.

      I wish that I had the guts to pick Fed! Hawkeye had it right!

      Wow!

  5. RT @juan_jo_sports: ” Djokovic had a chance today to put over 2200 points between himself and RF, with just 3 events for RF to make up the difference. As things stand now, the difference between them could be around 400 points heading into Paris (provided RF wins Basel).”

    #RogerWozniacki

  6. Poor @filter…………

    Fedal just won’t go quietly into the night……………

    When Rafa gets back Djokovic will be back where he belongs, #3.

  7. RT @juan_jo_sports: “That is one heck of a damaging loss for the World No. 1. A direct consequence might be not being World No. 1 for much longer.”

    RT @juan_jo_sports: “The stats really don’t lie: that wasn’t even close. RF with 9% more return points won, 9 more BPs created. 8% more total points won. A rout.”

  8. Maybe Roger will make the most of a Rafaless tournament this time, but it would be very funny, haha, if the title goes to an outsider for the 3rd time in Rafa’s absence. I wouldn’t rule Simon out although I think Federer is the favourite.

    Ricky, my posts are going into ‘moderation’ then takes a whole day to come through!

  9. I didn’t realize the implications of this win for year end #1. I thought that Novak had it wrapped up. This is really something.

    Too bad for the likes of filter. You just can’t keep Fedal down! Just wait until Rafa is back!

    Never write off great champions!

  10. on reflection the result wasn’t really that surprising. Contrary to the eulogies from my unfavourite coterie of TV commentators, Djokovic didn’t strike me as being particularly convincing this week. Nevertheless I was truly impressed by Federer today. The old boy simply refused to go away and the more frustrated Djokovic became the more errors he made.

  11. Fed took Djoko out of his comfort zone, just defending the baseline; also Fed’s serve was on. It was clear after the first few games who the eventual winner would be.

  12. There has been so much talk about Novak doing well in the fall hard court season, including from myself. However, Fed hasn’t been too shabby during this part of the tennis year in the past. Shame on me for not remembering that. These courts are also ideal for his game. Last year he was playing so poorly. But this year he’s come back strong. I give him credit to be able to do this at the age of 33.

    The indoor courts are even better for Fed. He has a chance to make something happen late in the year. I don’t know that Novak is going to be able to replicate what he did last year. Fed might have something to say about that.

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