First round
Zverev over Sonego in 3, Halys over Diaz Acosta in 3
Dimitrov over Popyrin in 4, Tabilo over Hanfmann in 4
Wendelken over Darderi in 5, Royer over Svrcina in 5
Sweeny over Moutet in 5, Musetti over Fery in 4
Jodar over Kokkinakis in 3, Zheng over Marozsan in 5
Svajda over Altmaier in 4, J. Cerundolo over Ruud in 4
Bergs over Taberner in 3, De Jong over Passaro in 4
Van de Zandschulp over Choinski in 3, De Minaur over Guerrieri in 3
Auger-Aliassime over Hijikata in 3, Khachanov over Burruchaga in 3
Bonzi over Molcan in 4, Buse over Giron in 4
Mensik over Mochizuki in 4, Rodionov over Mpetshi Perricard in 3
Monfils over Vallejo in 3, Tien over Borges in 3
Fritz over Blanch in 3, Bellucci over Piros in 3
Struff over Ugo Carabelli in 5, F. Cerundolo over Misolic in 3
Blockx over Barrios Vera in 3, Shang over Trungelliti in 3
Basavareddy over Schoolkate in 3, Cobolli over Comesana in 3
Medvedev over Gaston in 4, Collignon over Gorzny in 5
Atmane over Munar in 3, Rinderknech over Shimabukuro in 4
Kovacevic over Vacherot in 4, Majchrzak over Medjedovic in 4
Sakamoto over Vukic in 5, Tiafoe over Damm in 4
Nakashima over Baez in 3, Michelsen over Cina in 3
Merida over Fucsovics in 3, Rublev over Cilic in 4
Etcheverry over Kopriva in 3, Fearnley over Landaluce in 5
Berrettini over Wawrinka in 4, Djokovic over Navone in 4
Shelton over Griekspoor in 3, Hurkacz over Dzumhur in 3
Shapovalov over Kecmanovic in 5, Norrie over Van Assche in 4
Lehecka over Carreno Busta in 4, Samuel over Machac in 4
Harris over Kennedy in 5, Fils over Tsitsipas in 4
Wolf over Bublik in 5, Tirante over Mannarino in 3
Prizmic over Shevchenko in 4, Paul over Wong in 3
Arnaldi over Duckworth in 4, Walton over Wu in 4
Faria over Brooksby in 4, Alcaraz over Safiullin in 4
Second round
Zverev over Halys in 3
Dimitrov over Tabilo in 4
Royer over Wendelken in 4
Musetti over Sweeny in 3
Jodar over Zheng in 3
Svajda over J. Cerundolo in 4
Bergs over De Jong in 4
Van de Zandschulp over De Minaur in 4
Auger-Aliassime over Khachanov in 4
Bonzi over Buse in 5
Mensik over Rodionov in 3
Tien over Monfils in 3
Fritz over Bellucci in 3
Struff over F. Cerundolo in 4
Blockx over Shang in 4
Cobolli over Basavareddy in 4
Medvedev over Collignon in 5
Atmane over Rinderknech in 4
Kovacevic over Majchrzak in 4
Tiafoe over Sakamoto in 3
Nakashima over Michelsen in 4
Merida over Rublev in 5
Fearnley over Etcheverry in 4
Djokovic over Berrettini in 5
Shelton over Hurkacz in 4
Norrie over Shapovalov in 4
Lehecka over Samuel in 4
Fils over Harris in 3
Tirante over Wolf in 3
Paul over Prizmic in 3
Arnaldi over Walton in 5
Faria over Alcaraz in 5
Third round
Zverev over Dimitrov in 3
Musetti over Royer in 3
Jodar over Svajda in 3
Van de Zandschulp over Bergs in 4
Auger-Aliassime over Bonzi in 4
Tien over Mensik in 5
Fritz over Struff in 3
Cobolli over Blockx in 5
Atmane over Medvedev in 5
Tiafoe over Kovacevic in 4
Nakashima over Merida in 4
Djokovic over Fearnley in 3
Shelton over Norrie in 4
Fils over Lehecka in 3
Paul over Tirante in 3
Faria over Arnaldi in 4
Fourth round
Zverev over Musetti in 5
Jodar over Van de Zandschulp in 3
Tien over Auger-Aliassime in 4
Fritz over Cobolli in 4
Tiafoe over Atmane in 4
Nakashima over Djokovic in 5
Fils over Shelton in 5
Paul over Faria in 4
Quarterfinals
Zverev over Jodar in 3
Fritz over Tien in 4
Tiafoe over Nakashima in 5
Fils over Paul in 4
Semifinals
Fritz over Zverev in 5
Fils over Tiafoe in 4
Final
Fritz over Fils in 4
who ya got?
Round 1:
Zverev over Sonego in 4, Halys over Diaz Acosta in 4, Dimitrov over Popyrin in 3, Hanfmann over Tabilo in 5, Dimitrov over Popyrin in 3, Darderi over Wendelken in 4, Royer over Svrcina in 4, Moutet over Sweeney in 4, Musetti over Fery in 4
Jodar over Kokkinakis in 3, Zheng over Marozsan in 4, Svajda over Altmaier in 5, Ruud over J. Cerundolo in 4, Bergs over Taberner in 5, Passaro over De Jong in 5, Van de Zandschulp over Choinski in 3, De Minuar over Guerrieri in 3
Auger-Aliassime over Hijikata in 4, Khachanov over Burruchaga in 4, Bonzi over Molcan in 3, Buse over Giron in 4, Mensik over Mochizuki in 4, Rodionov over Mpetshi Perricard in 4, Vallejo over Monfils in 5, Tien over Borges in 5
Fritz over Blanch in 3, Bellucci over Piros in 4, Struff over Ugo Carabelli in 3, Cerundolo over Misolic in 4, Blockx over Barrios Vera in 3, Trungelliti over Shang in 5, Basavareddy over Schooolkate in 4, Cobolli over Comesana in 3
Medvedev over Gaston in 3, Collignon over Gorzney in 4, Atmane over Munar in 4, Rinderknech over Shimabakuro in 4, Kovacevic over Vacherot in 3, Majchrzak over Medjedovic in 4, Sakamoto over Vukic in 4, Tiafoe over Damm in 3
Nakashima over Baez in 3, Michelsen over Cina in 3, Merida over Fucsovics in 3, Rublev over Cilic in 4, Etcheverry over Kopriva in 4, Landaluce over Fearnley in 5, Berrettini over Wawrinka in 5, Djokovic over Navone in 4
Shelton over Griekspoor in 3, Hurkacz over Dzumhur in 3, Shapovalov over Kecmanovic in 4, Norrie over Van Assche in 3, Lehecka over Carreno Busta in 5, Samuel over Machac in 4, Harris over Kennedy in 4, Fils over Tsitsipas in 4
Wolf over Bublik in 4, Tirante over Mannarino in 3, Prizmic over Shevchenko in 5, Paul over Wong in 3, Duckworth over Arnaldi in 4, Walton in 4 over Wu, Brooksby in 5 over Faria, Alcaraz in 4 over Safiullin
Round 2:
Zverev over Halys in 4, Dimitrov over Hanfmann in 5, Royer over Darderi in 5, Musetti over Moutet in 3, Jodar over Zheng in 4, Ruud over Svajda in 4, Passaro over Bergs in 4, Van de Zandschulp over De Minaur in 5
Auger-Aliassime over Khachanov in 4, Bonzi over Buse in 4, Mensik over Rodionov in 3, Tien over Vallejo in 3, Fritz over Bellucci in 4, Struff over Cerundolo in 4, Blockx over Trungelliti in 4, Cobolli over Basavareddy in 3
Medvedev over Collignon in 4, Rinderknech over Atmane in 5, Kovacevic over Majchrzak in 4, Tiafoe over Sakamoto in 4, Nakashima over Michelsen in 4, Merida over Rublev in 4, Etcheverry over Landaluce in 4, Djokovic over Berrettini in 4
Shelton over Hurkacz in 3, Norrie over Shapovalov in 4, Samuel over Lehecka in 5, Fils over Harris in 3, Tirante over Wolf in 3, Paul over Prizmic in 3, Duckworth over Walton in 4, Alcaraz over Brooksby in 4
Round 3:
Zverev over Dimitrov in 4, Musetti over Royer in 3, Jodar over Ruud in 4, Van de Zandschulp over Passaro in 3, Auger-Aliassime over Bonzi in 4, Tien over Mensik in 5, Fritz over Struff in 4, Cobolli over TBD in TBD
Medvedev over Rinderknech in 5, Tiafoe over Kovacevic in 3, Nakashima over Merida in 4, Djokovic over Etcheverry in 4, Shelton over Norrie in 4, Fils over Samuel in 3, Tirante over Paul in 5, Alcaraz over Duckworth in 3
Round 4:
Zverev over Musetti in 5, Jodar over Van de Zandschulp in 4, Tien over Auger-Aliassime in 5, Cobolli over Fritz in 5
Tiafoe over Medvedev in 4, Nakashima over Djokovic in 4, Shelton over Fils in 5, Alcaraz over Tirante in 5
Quarterfinals:
Jodar over Zverev in 5, Cobolli over Tien in 5, Tiafoe over Djokovic in 5, Shelton over Alcaraz in 4
Semifinals:
Jodar over Cobolli in 5, Shelton over Tiafoe in 5
Final:
Shelton over Jodar in 5
decent picks
(other than Alcaraz and Djokovic in the quarters)
I agree that Djokovic and Alcaraz won’t go too far, I just feel like they’re the type here who can tough out one hard match before losing the next. I was tempted to put down Alcaraz and Djokovic losing fourth round though.
I think that’s also a plausible way it could all go, Pamplemouse. And I see you’re also not convinced Fritz is going to win this US Open.
I think it’s intriguing that all three who worked through the draw from beginning to end here so far ended up with at least one American in the final, albeit different players. And I have no skin in this game because I’m an Aussie and I don’t think we have an Aussie who’s even going to make it to semis here.
So maybe that bodes well for a drought-breaking for the US men this year. Or maybe we’re theorising to the best of our understandings and with various hunches, and life will laugh at our theories!😉
Should be the best chance for US men in a while.
Yes I’m not convinced about Fritz. Doesn’t seem like the guy who’s able to cross the line and win a slam and not convinced by his performance in Montreal and Cincinnati. Could see him winning but not enough for me to pick him.
That Fritz Nakashima match was what put me away from picking him. In my opinion it looked like Fritz played really well and still lost. The first two sets from Fritz were probably some of the best sets I’ve seen him play in a while, but he still ended up losing the match. That gives me question marks about what might happen if he plays somebody in the draw who is just plainly playing better than him like that.
Yes, there’s that and there’s that he had so many nearlies where he almost seemed to psychologically falter, like Kokkinakis at times used to towards the end of a match he was initially looking like winning, like de Minaur on and off since last year. And there’s his knee. Damage is cumulative even when it heals for a bit; it’s never quite the same under stress. Also see Kokkinakis, Draper, Korda, etc; even Nadal was carrying so much damage (and apparently compartmentalising a lot of pain to play later in his career).
It just seems to me the younger US guys look more likely for title contention: still on steep improvement curves, without a chronic/recurring injury, and without too many bad disappointments yet at the pointy ends of major tournaments.
Of course, should Fritz have a series of magical days where everything lines up for him he could totally win the US Open this year. But the same is also true for at least a dozen other people.
Fritz after losing to nakashima and tirante? Bold.
Looks like we do agree on quite a few things though.
Wow, that’s a comprehensive set of predictions! They look very plausible and reasonable. It makes sense that predicting the ultimate outcome of a wide-open Slam is more likely when approached systematically round by round like this.
Ricky’s already done the hard work here. I’m just going out on a limb for a few I’m seeing differently:
R1
Fils over Tsitsipas in 3!
Kokkinakis to steal a set off Jodar
Hijikata to steal a set off FAA
Cilic to steal a set off Rublev
Wong to steal a set off Paul
Altmaier over Zvajda in a long tussle
R2
Medvedev vs Collignon over 5 OK, but Collignon winning it
Shapo over Norrie (in as many sets as it takes)
It’s interesting Ricky’s expecting Faria to topple Alcaraz. Faria has some big scalps on clay. But will a rusty Alcaraz play as well as Musetti did in Cincy? Maybe he will. Shelton was probably fatigued in Cincy. Maybe Alcaraz will survive this. But what’s making this dangerous is the potential underestimation of a “no-name no-title” who’s definitely on the up.
R3
Dimitrov over Zverev (in as many sets as it takes)
Struffy to steal a set or two off Fritz and maybe the whole thing if he’s having a good night. He beat Fritz well and properly in the Munich final a couple of years back and that is his fuel, clay or not. He’s also famous for hanging tough in 5-setters.
I expect Shelton to be playing Shapo R3 and if the Canadian has a good night he might edge it. But it’s kind of academic as either would face Fils in R4 and Fils is red hot ATM.
R4
Yep, Nakashima has a very good chance of beating Djokovic, playing at his recent new level.
If Dimitrov plays Musetti and still has fuel I expect he could get through to a QF. If!
QFs
Tien over Fritz (in as many sets as it takes)
I know you’re expecting Tiafoe to edge Nakashima after a proposed 5-setter over Djokovic but Nakashima might have an easier win than in 5, so then he could well edge Tiafoe!
SFs
Tien over Dimitrov or Musetti
Nakashima over Fils (home crowd, considered underdog but already has wins against Fils for confidence). But: Alcaraz just might still be around…and could beat either of these two if he makes it that far.
FINAL
Well, perhaps you get Tien vs Nakashima. Wouldn’t that be nice?
Or Tien vs Fils.
Or Tien vs Alcaraz.
Or something completely different!
• Re Merida, current top returner on tour: I think it’s interesting that 7 out of the current Top 10 returners are Spanish speakers!
This is the best chance in a while for an American Male to win a major. No Sinner, Alcaraz not in shape yet, and an old Joker. If one can’t get it done now, it may be quite a bit longer before it happens.
Tien over Mensik?….NOT gonna happen. Naka over Joker….gonna happen! Fritz over Zverv…..NOT gonna happen……..and Alcaraz to WIN it all.
why would Tien not beat Mensik?
Why wouldnt Mensik beat him?
Very Interesting Takes…
Fritz has the H2H
Over zverev
My picks, got them in at last minute
Qf Jodar d Zverev
Fritz d Tien
Tiafoe d Djokovic
Fils d Alcaraz
SF
Fritz d Jodar
Tiafoe d Fils
F Fritz d Tiafoe
For once , theres no favourites not even Alcaraz
I can see Fritz go out to eg Cobolli
I havent much faith in the American players here to go all the way