The road to Roland Garros continues this fortnight with the third of three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments. It’s the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, where Jannik Sinner is bidding to complete the career Masters slam — winning all nine on the ATP calendar. The top-ranked Italian has won five Masters 1000 events in a row after lifting the Madrid trophy for the first time this past Sunday — leaving Rome as the only missing puzzle piece.
Carlos Alcaraz remains sidelined by a wrist injury, so Sinner is an absolutely massive favorite in front of the home crowd at the Foro Italico. Potential challengers include Novak Djokovic, Madrid runner-up Alexander Zverev, fellow Italians Lorenzo Musetti and Flavio Cobolli, and rising star Rafael Jodar.
With main-draw action getting underway on Wednesday, it’s time to break down what is always one of the most entertaining tournaments on the annual tennis circuit.
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 8,235,540 Euros
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
2025 champion: Carlos Alcaraz (not playing)
Draw analysis: It is a nice one for Djokovic, who is making his 2026 clay-court debut and has not taken the court since Indian Wells. Not only is the 38-year-old Serb on the other side from Sinner, but he also has an extremely favorable path at least through the fourth round. Djokovic, even if he is a bit rusty, should coast into the quarterfinals before running into either Musetti, Jiri Lehecka, or Casper Ruud.
Elsewhere in the bottom half of the bracket, Zverev and Jodar are on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Jodar, who is coming off a quarterfinal run in Madrid, will try to lock up a seeded spot at the French Open with a decent performance in Rome. The 19-year-old Spaniard could meet Alex de Minaur in round three after he destroyed the Australian 6-3, 6-1 during second-round action at the Caja Magica.
The draw is much tougher at the top for players like Arthur Fils and Ben Shelton. Fils could face Sinner as early as round four, while Shelton is a possible quarterfinal opponent for the world No. 1. The news at the Foro Italico is even worse for Jakub Mensik, who has the misfortune of being the first seeded opponent whom Sinner could play.
The top half is also home to Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, and Joao Fonseca. Auger-Aliassime vs. Fonseca is a possible third-round battle, while Medvedev will have a difficult opening match on his hands against either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Tomas Machac.
In addition to Tsitsipas vs. Machac, first-round matchups to watch include Zizou Bergs vs. Terence Atmane, Jenson Brooksby vs. Sebastian Baez, Matteo Berrettini vs. Alexei Popyrin, and Denis Shapovalov vs. Mariano Navone.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Jiri Lehecka, Flavio Cobolli, Arthur Fils, Valentin Vacherot, Rafael Jodar, Ethan Quinn, Alexander Blockx, Vit Kopriva, Ignacio Buse, Thiago Agustin Tirante, Alejandro Tabilo
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Zhizhen Zhang, Lorenzo Sonego, Daniel Altmaier, Roberto Bautista Agut, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Jaume Munar, Jan-Lennard Struff, Adrian Mannarino, Jenson Brooksby, Valentin Royer
Quarterfinal predictions: Jannik Sinner over Andrey Rublev, Flavio Cobolli over Joao Fonseca, Lorenzo Musetti over Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Jodar over Alexander Blockx
Semifinals: Sinner over Cobolli and Musetti over Jodar
Final: Sinner over Musetti
who ya got?
I can see why you went for who you did in the QFs. Now if life stuck to theory…
I’m going to put myself on the line as thinking about 5 of your projected quarterfinalists will get that far. Not because they are bad picks but because life happens. Some of the other “hot” crowd on a good day could throw a spanner in the works. And even some of the cold and lukewarm crowd. Surprises keep life interesting anyway.
Should be a lot of fun, with great matchups.✨
And a lot of pasta, not just the metaphorical kind.🍝
Pot Noodles for me, 🤤
My picks are looking very similar but I’m deciding between Jodar or Zverev to lose in the final. Not enough faith in Musetti just yet .
😂😂😂
… deciding between who will lose in the final! That’s what it’s come to. Well, I’m pretty sure Jannik’s mother is completely delighted by this development.😄
I’m going to do the Aussie predictions.
ATP
R1 Berrettini over Popyrin
R1 Vukic over qualifier (with luck)
R2 Paul over Vukic
R2 de Minaur (R1 bye) over Munar or Arnaldi
R3 Jodar over de Minaur
Chris O’Connell ran into Martin Landaluce in Q1. Rinky Hijikata survived Q1, beating a teenage Italian wildcard in three sets. If he can get past Basilashvili (who sounds like something off an Eastern European menu, a herb omelette perhaps) I wonder who he will end up in the R1 main draw. But he might go further than de Minaur with a lucky draw, or at least win more matches.
WTA
R1 Talia Gibson over Martina Trevisan
R2 Diana Shnaider over Talia Gibson
R1 Daria Kasatkina over Caty McNally
R2 depends on the day Iga Swiatek is having
R2 Viktorija Golubic over Maya Joint (R1 bye)
Ajla Tomljanovic and Kimberley Birrell didn’t get through qualifying.
Doubles TBA but Aussies traditionally do better at that than singles.
I’m expecting all sorts of Italians to really kick ass in Rome.
agreed on the Italians
Tomljanovic is a LL and will play Basiletti.
Just saw that! And more Basil!
Talia Gibson made R2. Shnaider is a tough gig next.
And Vukic drew the Aussie killer, Kypson, so I’m not sure he will win that one, who’s been playing very well.
Kasatkina just won an ITF event which is why I thought she just might be able to go back to good form on WTA on her preferred surface, and outcompete McNally, who I know isn’t a pushover. We’ll see.
Roma
R16: Sinner over Fils, Shelton over Rublev, Fonseca over Vacherot, Cobolli over Moutet, Ruud over F. Cerundolo, Djokovic over Khachanov, Jodar over Bublik, Zverev over Paul
QF: Sinner over Shelton, Fonseca over Cobolli, Ruud over Djokovic, Zverev over Jodar
SF: Sinner over Fonseca, Ruud over Zverev
F: Sinner over Ruud
Hmm . No mention of Musetti. He has a very tough draw. Djokovic a massive h2h but the last few were close
Yes, Musetti’s in tough and his form hasn’t been there enough for me to have him go very far, Cerun usually plays him tough. Nole’s form is a bit of an unknown right now, it sounded like he was too injured to even play this, hard to see him getting past consistent clayman Rudd right now, though possible.
I think a lot depends on how badly Djokovic wants to win here.
I can see issues with Zverev , Musetti and Djokovic in this part of the draw.Jodar also played a lot of tennis .May be somone like Tommy Paul to come through he plays well here.
Just revisiting my Aussie predictions.
WTA
R1 Talia Gibson over Martina Trevisan ✓
R2 Diana Shnaider over Talia Gibson ✓
R1 Daria Kasatkina over Caty McNally 🙂↔️
(nope, the Challenger type title she won last tournament didn’t reset her to previous best level; she used to be a high-level player but her tennis nosedived after she started playing under the 🇦🇺 flag)
R2 Viktorija Golubic over Maya Joint (R1 bye) ✓
ATP
R1 Berrettini over Popyrin 🙂↔️
(nope, Poppy won that one but I unpatriotically don’t believe he will beat Mensik in R2, it’s 3-0 Mensik to date in easy defeats)
R1 Vukic over qualifier (with luck) ✓
R2 Paul over Vukic ✓
R2 de Minaur (R1 bye) over Munar or Arnaldi 🙂↔️
(didn’t get that far; someone put this horse in a spelling paddock already instead of letting it run itself ragged like this)
R3 Jodar over de Minaur (isn’t even happening but that result would have been a near certainty)
Doubles to come. Only Aussie man in the doubles is Marc Polmans, teaming with Sascha Bublik.
And it’s so difficult to get to the women’s doubles draw from tennis sites I now use Wikipedia for it. What is it with the WTA website? It’s ridiculous to try to get information off.😵💫
Anyway, Storm Hunter (her married name) is teaming with Jess Pegula; and Ellen Perez with Demi Schuurs again. Aussies are usually very good at doubles but competition is tough here and my prediction is that at best we will get a QF appearance, most likely Perez/Schuurs.
Ricky, you changed your pick from Blockx to Zverev!
I never had Blockx in that particular matchup with Zverev (fortunately!)
You actually had Zverev going out to Altmaier then!