The clay-court swing heats up in a big way with this week’s Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is kicking off his 2026 clay campaign, as is world No. 2 Jannik Sinner. Who will challenge the best players in the world in Monte-Carlo? Well, it won’t be Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Holger Rune, or Arthur Fils. The field is a bit depleted since Monte-Carlo is the only Masters 1000 event that is not required, but there are still plenty of stars on hand in addition to Alcaraz and Sinner.
It should be an exciting eight days in the principality. Here is a breakdown of the draw along with my picks.
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 6,309,095 Euros
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Carlos Alcaraz
Draw analysis: On the heels of a disappointing Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami, Alcaraz is back on his clay-court stomping grounds and the draw has set him up nicely for a second consecutive title in Monte-Carlo. The other first-round bye recipients in the top half of the bracket are Lorenzo Musetti, Alex de Minaur, and Alexander Bublik. Musetti has played only one match since suffering a leg injury while leading Djokovic two sets to love in the Australian Open quarterfinals. De Minaur is 1-3 in his last four matches, and clay is by far his worst surface. It is the same for Bublik — even though he made a run to the French Open quarters in 2025.
Sinner has a much more difficult path to the final. The second-ranked Italian could run into Felix Auger-Aliassime in the last eight before potentially facing Alexander Zverev in the semis. Even Stefanos Tsitsipas, Francisco Cerundolo, or Tomas Machac could present a tough test for Sinner in round three. Although Tsitsipas is mired in a prolonged slump, he loves clay and is…wait for it…a three-time champion of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
First-round matches to watch include Cerundolo vs. Tsitsipas, Gael Monfils vs. Tallon Griekspoor, Stan Wawrinka vs. Sebastian Baez, Joao Fonseca vs. Gabriel Diallo, Frances Tiafoe vs. Terence Atmane, and Karen Khachanov vs. Arthur Rinderknech.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Jiri Lehecka, Luciano Darderi, Moise Kouame
Cold: Lorenzo Musetti, Casper Ruud, Karen Khachanov, Grigor Dimitrov, Stan Wawrinka, Gael Monfils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniel Altmaier, Alexei Popyrin, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Hubert Hurkacz
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Jiri Lehecka, Alexander Zverev over Joao Fonseca, Luciano Darderi over Cameron Norrie, and Jannik Sinner over Casper Ruud
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Zverev and Sinner over Darderi
Final: Alcaraz over Sinner
WWW?
I already had same as Ricky apart from Q2 where Demon over Darderi then losing to Sinner.Though could be just as easily Norrie , Demon nearly beat Musetti last year and had a very decent record on clay
Agree on every quarter finalist tbh
Jodar vs Marco final who win?
The Tsitsipas-Cerundolo is tough. Cerundolo in much better form, but there’s the Monte Carlo effect.
I thought Zverev was in Sinner’s half? Am I reading it wrong? Either way I agree it will be Alcaraz over Sinner in the final.
zverev is in sinners half