The road to Roland Garros continues this fortnight with the third of three clay-court Masters 1000 events. Rafael Nadal remains sidelined, but the Internazionali BNL d’Italia field is stronger than what was on display in both Monte-Carlo and Madrid. Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner are back in action after skipping the second Masters tournament, while Carlos Alcaraz is set to make his Rome debut.
Main-draw competition gets underway on Wednesday, so it’s time to break down what is always one of the best tournaments on the annual tennis calendar.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 7,705,780 Euros
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: Although the draw is relatively balanced with Djokovic, Sinner, and Holger Rune in the top half while Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the other side, there is one obvious section that is the deepest and the toughest. Daniil Medvedev’s quarter also includes Andrey Rublev, Taylor Fritz, Hubert Hurkacz, Alexander Zverev, Roberto Bautista Agut, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Emil Ruusuvuori. Rublev and Fritz are in especially strong form, so Medvedev—whose clay-court struggles are well documented—may not last long in Rome. In fact, the No. 3 seed could go out right away at the hands of Ruusuvuori.
Elsewhere in the bottom half of the bracket, Alcaraz is playing in Rome for the first time. The Spaniard withdrew last year after winning Madrid, but in 2023 it looks like he is ready to follow up another Madrid title with participation in Rome. It makes sense, too, since Madrid and Rome are now 12-day events so players aren’t taking to the match court every single day. Alcaraz could run into Jiri Lehecka in the third round, Borna Coric in the last 16, and either Tsitsipas or Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals.
Djokovic is likely to face either Grigor Dimitrov or Stan Wawrinka in the round of 32 before possibly getting Rune in the quarters. Casper Ruud is the top-ranked Serb’s projected semifinal foe based on seeding, but based on current form a showdown with Sinner is a far more likely scenario for Djokovic.
First-round matchups to watch are Wawrinka vs. Ilya Ivashka, Ruusuvuori vs. Ugo Humbert, Andy Murray vs. Fabio Fognini, and Richard Gasquet vs. Yibing Wu. Murray is coming off a Challenger title in Aix-en-Provence.
Hot: Carlos Alcaraz, Andrey Rublev, Holger Rune, Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz, Karen Khachanov, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Tallon Griekspoor, Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Luca Van Assche, Quentin Halys, Dusan Lajovic
Cold: Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Sebastian Korda, Fabio Fognini, Arthur Rinderknech, Alexander Bublik, Brandon Nakashima, David Goffin, Jeremy Chardy, Diego Schwartzman, Corentin Moutet
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Miomir Kecmanovic, Jannik Sinner over Cristian Garin, Taylor Fritz over Emil Ruusuvuori, and Carlos Alcaraz over Frances Tiafoe
Semifinals: Sinner over Djokovic and Alcaraz over Fritz
Final: Sinner over Alcaraz
who ya got?
Sinner is my gut feeling.
Sinner looks sharp at home
No mention of Tsitsi.Is he injured?
in the brain, perhaps
Charlie FTW again and again until he loses.
And the final will be Carlos vs. Novak
I tried to be imaginative but had no luck.
SF’s
Nole over Sinner
Carlos over Rublev
QF’s
Nole over Rune
Sinner over Ruud
Rublev over Medvedev
Carlos over Tsitsipas
At least I made it back to fill out the ATP Rome bracket.
But the WTA bracket was closed.
I’ve gone with Sinner because I think home will give him an advantage, but Al is favourite in our wee bracket, with one vote for Djok.
In WTA Iga for the win!
I should know better, but I picked Andy over Fogna. It’s inspiring to watch Andy racking points ahead of the grass season! And we all love Sinner; it would be great for him to win Roma.
I checked all brackets in the WTA one, and I think I would have been brave enough to pick her to defend her title on the clay in Rome.
Novak does not need another Rome title, but we shall see if he is going for it here. I went for Carlitos.
Iga For the Win. Jazda!
It looks like Andy will win the second set! He is still in the fight.
Oops, I spoke too soon. Fogna wants more games in the 2nd set. Flavia is there 😀
Finally, Andy gets the 2nd set, but it takes a long time and lots of patience.
Foggy wins! How good was his fh!
Blast from the past!
I have Al over Sinner. Decided at last minute against Nole in the final.He just hasn’t been impressive enough
Anything can happen. I Agree Nole is not lighting up the clay season like Al or Sinner. I guess that Nole will put forth the energy if he has any. His primary objective is probably FO. But he will go as far as possible, and Sinner is there to win Rome.
And Iga over Aryna
Forecast is to rain so courts will be much slower than Madrid.Its strange because they can also play fast to suitpeople like Opelka and Pliskova
Really like to see Sinner win.
Every year since and including 2005 at least one of Rafole has been in the Rome final. What a stat showing Rafole dominance!
18 years!
Wow, incredible times they were, too. 😀
May well be insane stat which comes to an end this year. Not sure where Novak is at right now.
Not literally! Atm he is watching AC Milan in Milan!
Flavia and Fabio have three children now:
Federico, age 4, Farah age 2, and a new baby girl, Flaminico.
Federico was there tonight watching with Momma.
Hope I live long enough to see a Fognini kid play tennis!
Fabio can play fabulous tennis, and he makes it look simple.
Congrats Fabio!
He’s beaten Andy Murray a few times esp on clay. Like Davis Cup in Naples. It really was a lesson