Wimbledon Day 6 picks, including Tsonga vs. Karlovic and Troicki vs. Brown

The Wimbledon third round will conclude (barring another marathon along the lines of Marin Cilic vs. John Isner) on Saturday. Dustin Brown is back in action after upsetting Rafael Nadal and the German will now face Viktor Troicki. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Ivo Karlovic are also part of the schedule.

(13) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (23) Ivo Karlovic

Ricky: I picked against Tsonga in the first round (vs. Gilles Muller) and I am doubting him once again. The good news for the Frenchman is that an abdominal injury appears to be in the past, as he survived Muller in five then destroyed Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Unfortunately for Tsonga, he is now running into an extremely tough opponent–especially on grass. Karlovic and Tsonga have faced each other once before at Wimbledon and it was the huge-serving Croat who prevailed 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 7-5, 7-6(5), also in the third round. Having already persevered trough one five-set marathon (over Alexandr Dolgopolov on Wednesday), I expect Karlovic to do the same thing again. Karlovic 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3, 6-7(6), 9-7.

Joey: Heading into Wimbledon, I felt like Dr. Ivo was going slightly under the radar compared to prior years. His serve has been and always will be a massive weapon on grass, and I think he’s the last player most guys want to see in their draw. Tsonga can play his best tennis on grass as well, but he won’t be allowed any rhythm whatsoever against the Croatian big man. There will undoubtably be some tiebreaks contested, and Karlovic is actually not a great tiebreak player considering how big his serve is. Still, I don’t see Tsonga breaking serve more than 1-2 times in the whole match, and I think Ivo’s slice backhand will prove to be fairly effective on return, causing problems for the Frenchman. Karlovic 7-6(7), 4-6, 7-6(4), 6-3.
(22) Viktor Troicki vs. (Q) Dustin Brown

Ricky: Brown has now joined a Mount Rushmore of Rafael Nadal Wimbledon upsets, preceded by the likes of Lukas Rosol, Steve Darcis, and Nick Kyrgios. All thee of the previous Nadal conquerors failed to get out of the next round, and Darcis was not even able to play his ensuing match because of injury. And it’s not like these cases were aberrations to the rule. Players have always struggled to build on career-defining victories. Moreover, Troicki has been in stellar form from start to finish this season and he has a ton of grass-court matches under his belt. Brown will be gone…but not forgotten. Troicki 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4.

: While many believe that Brown’s emotional high after beating Nadal on centre court at Wimbledon will lead to a letdown, I am of the opinion that Dreddy has a clear advantage over Troicki in this match. Brown loves grass, and his style of play is incredible disruptive for his opponents. Troicki is an aggressive baseline player who feeds off rhythm, and the German will give him absolutely none of that. Brown will obviously go through a few peaks and valleys throughout the match, but his service games will be more automatic than the Serbian’s. Expect the crowd to help Brown in 5 tipsy turvy sets. Brown 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-2, 5-7, 9-7.

(18) Gael Monfils vs. (12) Gilles Simon
Ricky: There probably won’t be another 71-ball rally between these two Frenchmen like there was at the 2013 Australian Open. At least many tennis fans hope there is no repeat of what most considered to be a nauseating dink-fest. Grass probably won’t allow for such nonsense. It probably also won’t allow Monfils to turn the tide against his compatriot. Simon is dominating the head-to-head series 5-1 and has won three in a row dating back to the fall of 2012. Although Simon is by no means at his best on grass, Monfils has a borderline disdain for the slick stuff. As usual, the more level-headed Simon will get the best of the theatric Monfils. Simon 7-5, 6-1, 3-6, 7-5.

Joey: Two best friends and fellow countryman will meet on their worst surface for a spot in the second week of the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world. Both Monfils and Simon struggle on grass due to their discomfort in moving on the slippery green stuff. Monfils can randomly peak on grass, but he tends to be off-balance on an incredibly large percentage of shots. Simon’s flat strokes can benefit from the low bouncing turf, so I believe he has the advantage in baseline rallies. Monfils’ serve is the biggest weapon the court, but Simon has the mental edge over his good friend. Simon 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 7-5.
(WC) James Ward vs. Vasek Pospisil

Ricky: A handful of matches are difficult to pick on Saturday; this one could be the toughest. This is a massive opportunity for both men, as Pospisil has never reached the second week of a major and Ward had never previously been past even the second round. Furthermore, neither player could have expected to face such a low-ranked opponent at this point of a slam (Pospisil is 54th; Ward is almost exactly twice that low at No. 110). The Brit has been able to handle intense pressure in Davis Cup situations, but this is a whole different beast. Having home-court advantage may end up backfiring on him, and Pospisil always has to love playing at Wimbledon as a former doubles champion. Pospisil 6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4.

Joey: When Ricky sent me this as one of today’s matches, I was initially laughing at the thought of anything but a Pospisil blowout. But after thinking about it for a few minutes, James Ward has a real opportunity in this match. Pospisil’s has struggled mightily with his singles game this year, and he took advantage of a rather advantageous draw to reach the third round. Then, to get British wildcard James Ward for a spot in the second week is truly a fortuitous opportunity. Ward has been fairly abysmal outside of Davis Cup in 2015, but his win over Jiri Vesely was impressive. In all honestly, there should be no reason Pospisil loses this match, but he certainly could. I’ll take the Canadian in 4 with….not a lot of confidence. His serve should bail him out just enough to win. Pospisil 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 7-6(3).

31 Comments on Wimbledon Day 6 picks, including Tsonga vs. Karlovic and Troicki vs. Brown

  1. Troicki i agree. Tsonga will come through but could lose a set. Simon does seem the better choice but because i like monfils i say monfils in 4. What i really believe will happen is that Ward will play really well with the crowd and the eagerness that he has. Ward in 3 or 4.

  2. Brown is playing a completely different game against Troicki from the one he played against Rafa. He is not going for broke like he did against Rafa. Backs whatI’ve been saying.

  3. An unseeded journeyman who missed 18 of the last 24 months is easily in control. Nothing new.

    As I said before, what’s all the fuss about him other than beating a great player with an anxiety disorder.

  4. Buh-bye Dreddy pedestrian. Journeymen are only as good as better players allow them to be.

    Troicki really made him look silly at times.

  5. Yes, some really close matches today, and that doesn’t even include the finish of Isner-Cilic (Go Dawgs!!)…I like Troicki, Tsonga, Simon, and Pop!

  6. You really believe it’s a Rafa curse? You don’t think Rafa could have won that match? The old Rafa would have fought tooth and nail and found the answers. He’s done it throughout his career.

    There was a real reason for the losses in 2012 and 2013 when Rafa was still dealing with a knee injury. There wasn’t much he could do. But this time it was different and even Rafa remarked in his post-match presser that he was injured back then but he is healthy now. Did you see the pain in his eyes? He is hurting because he knows that he should have won that match.

    • Let me clarify. Yes Rafa lost the match vs. DB winning it. Same with Dolgopolov in Queens. What I meant by curse is outside the top 4, how many players who have beaten Rafa go on to win the next round? Not just in the last year but in his career? It’s as if beating Rafa (you can add Roger here too) is enough. Re: this loss: This is also probably the saddest Rafa’s been at a press conference.

  7. Jeu Nadal,

    Thanks for your clarification. I understand where you are coming from completely. I also believe that beating Rafa is probably the toughest thing to do in this sport. So yes, I agree that the fact that these players go on to lose in the next round is quite unfortunate. That is a Rafa curse. I agree with your point.

    After seeing Rafa’s post-match presser, I cannot get the sad look in his eyes out of my mind. It made me cry. I can’t stand seeing him like this. Uncle Toni did confirm that Rafa was having a very difficult time dealing with this loss. My heart truly hurts for him. I wish something could be done to help him. That’s all I wanted to say.

  8. hawkeye,

    You said it, not me. Don’t you realize that it’s a capital offense to say anything like that here? Unfortunately, I think that I have to agree with you. 🙁

    Jeu Nadal,

    I don’t know what to think about the North American hard court season. This latest loss won’t help Rafa’s shaky confidence at all.

  9. I just saw Tsonga lose a tough one to Karlovic in four sets. Sorry to see him out of the tournament.

  10. Karlovic was regularly taking 26-27 seconds between serves.

    Surprise, no time warnings.

    The Rafa Rule was a well laid plan.


  11. I didn’t realize that. ESPN only switched to the match after their studio interview with Fed. So it was almost at the very end.

    So this rule is being exposed for what it is.

    On VB they have a petition about it and are trying to reach 500 signatures. I went there and signed it. I felt good doing something about this outrage.

  12. James Ward and Popsi are battling it out in a thrilling match which has gone to a fifth set.
    I think Popsi will edge the match (I’ve got a soft spot for him) but would dearly love to see Ward go through.

  13. It’s still neck and neck but the momentum is with Popsi. Curtains for Ward Popsi breaks for a 7-6 lead.

  14. ESPN is staying with Murray/Seppi, going briefly to the Monfils/Simon match. I would much rather see that one. Since Seppi took an injury time out, he seems to be doing better. Up a break in the third set when Murray was running away with it in the first two sets.

  15. This is really something. Seppi wins the third set.

    I have no doubt that Murray will ultimately prevail, but it’s just bizarre how Seppi takes an injury timeout and then the match completely changes.

  16. Seppi breaks Murray in the first game of the fourth set. Now Murray has called for the trainer.

  17. Is anybody watching what is going on now? The Monfils/Simon match couldn’t finish on the outer court, so they closed the roof on center court and will finish it there. They have to get this match in because of Manic Monday. It’s first come, first serve for the crowd and they all look like they are having quite a time of it in the seats in center court.

    Simon is up two sets to one and now they are in the fourth set.

    This has been a good match and it’s great seeing people get a chance to sit on center court and watch.

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